ATL: ELSA - Models

[Kingarabian]

Another Euro failure in the MDR.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/RfkNomH.gif[/ul]

The Euro can't initialize anything (even the CMC). It can't get initial conditions correct. Eventually, its initialization errors play a role in its predicted track and intensity.

[SFLcane]

Another look at the 18z guidance..

[Nuno]

Another look at the 18z guidance..

https://i.postimg.cc/q7dP0tVs/EAB68-C39-6-B5-F-46-AF-8-B97-4405-C5474-E2-A.png

So, kind of like 2006 Ernesto?

We'll see how it pans out, not many fare well after the Antilles.

[captainbarbossa19]

Another look at the 18z guidance..

https://i.postimg.cc/q7dP0tVs/EAB68-C39-6-B5-F-46-AF-8-B97-4405-C5474-E2-A.png

So, kind of like 2006 Ernesto?

We'll see how it pans out, not many fare well after the Antilles.

Somehow, I will not be surprised if this stays south of the Greater Antilles.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Always feel like these fast moving systems go further south and west than what the models expect. I suppose we’ll get a better idea over the next 48 hours.

[eastcoastFL]

Last year HWRF was really good at depicting future IR presentation. This is what it thinks it should look like in 18 hours. I’m interested to see if this plays out

[AutoPenalti]

Last year HWRF was really good at depicting future IR presentation. This is what it thinks it should look like in 18 hours. I’m interested to see if this plays out

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021063012/hwrf_satIR_97L_4.png

Highly doubt it will look similar to this but that does not mean it will look stronger than it does now.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Last year HWRF was really good at depicting future IR presentation. This is what it thinks it should look like in 18 hours. I’m interested to see if this plays out

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021063012/hwrf_satIR_97L_4.png

Highly doubt it will look similar to this but that does not mean it will look stronger than it does now.

It looks more similar to that image by the minute to my eyes.

[johngaltfla]

Interesting how the Canadian, NAVGEM, and GFS are all confident about SW Florida towards the end of the run. This time of year, that fits the pattern so I wonder if we'll see some upper air readings south of the DR and Cuba to confirm the models soon. I hope they do not stay this consistent.

[cainjamin]

12Z GFS is coming in. Slightly weaker than the 18Z through the Lesser Antilles due to what looks to be a little more shear.

[AutoPenalti]

12Z GFS is coming in. Slightly weaker than the 18Z through the Lesser Antilles due to what looks to be a little more shear.

You mean the 18z is running?

Looks the same through 66hrs.

[cainjamin]

12Z GFS is coming in. Slightly weaker than the 18Z through the Lesser Antilles due to what looks to be a little more shear.

You mean the 18z is running?

Looks the same through 66hrs.

Whoops! Got my times reversed.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS A LOT STRONGER at 90hr, missed the Islands, going right through the middle.

[cainjamin]

18Z trended a little faster and weaker through the Lesser Antilles, but then stronger as it threaded the needle between Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba. Will definitely have to keep an eye on weather or not a west trend continues.

[toad strangler]

[AlphaToOmega]

Forecasted wind shear:

2005 wind shear:

2005 has <10 kt of wind shear throughout the Caribbean Sea this time of year, but 2021 is forecasted to have ~20 kt of wind shear in next week.

[SFLcane]

GFS A LOT STRONGER at 90hr, missed the Islands, going right through the middle.

Yessir…986mb Hurricane approaching Cuba.

[Fancy1001]

The latest GFS was able to thread the needle, now let's see what happens after it gets off of Cuba

[toad strangler]

Hour 144 on 18z GFS Look Out & a tad W of 12Z

[toad strangler]

Perilously close to Tampa @156