ATL: ELSA - Models

[Kingarabian]

18z HWRF hour 75:

[MGC]

Lets see if the models have the usual east bias. Hopefully the upper levels will be sampled in the next few days so we can get an idea of how strong or weak the Bermuda ridge is......MGC

[Kingarabian]

18z HWRF hour 84:

[Fancy1001]

18z HWRF hour 84:
https://i.imgur.com/yfXCxeg.png

Looks like it might thread the needle again. I'm really curious about the potential for rapid intensification once it gets through Cuba

[Kingarabian]

18z HWRF hour 90:

[aspen]

18z HWRF hour 90:
https://i.imgur.com/fSx8Fri.png

Another treading the needle track. I’m interested to see how much the HWRF track will change once this is officially designated as TS Elsa and the model is given a well-defined center the work with.

[Kingarabian]

18z HWRF hour 96:

[eastcoastFL]

The western structure of PTC 5 sorta looks like the previous HWRF simulated IR but the cloud temps are completely off.
https://i.imgur.com/YhOLT5V.png

Well for comparison this is what the 00z run predicted for now. Pretty darn close.

[Kingarabian]

18z HWRF hour 102:

[Ian2401]

Again, this kind of track fits neatly into July climo

I guess tomorrow is July but it’s not often you have a storm forming this Far East in June threatening a Florida landfall.

There is no threat of a Florida landfall outside of some mid range models. And when that time comes, It's full blown July.

no threat to florida???

[eastcoastFL]

Is it me or does the Euro seem way too far north? Are they still struggling with initializing these systems?

[Cat5James]

Is it me or does the Euro seem way too far north? Are they still struggling with initializing these systems?

Euro has been playing catchup this whole time... surprisingly even the CMC seems to have a better grasp on the situation

[eastcoastFL]

I guess tomorrow is July but it’s not often you have a storm forming this Far East in June threatening a Florida landfall.

There is no threat of a Florida landfall outside of some mid range models. And when that time comes, It's full blown July.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_gefs_latest.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_geps_latest.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_tracks_latest.png
no threat to florida???

I think we will see more of Florida in the cone as time goes on unless it gets chopped by the islands and dissipates. The only models I see forecasting that so far seem too far north. But who knows this far out.

[Kingarabian]

18z HWRF hour 126:



Weakens substantially after crossing Cuba.

[toad strangler]

I guess tomorrow is July but it’s not often you have a storm forming this Far East in June threatening a Florida landfall.

There is no threat of a Florida landfall outside of some mid range models. And when that time comes, It's full blown July.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_gefs_latest.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_geps_latest.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_tracks_latest.png
no threat to florida???

No. There is potential but a threat? lol I guess we view what that actually is much differently. Either way, you should be prepared 95% by June 1 !

[3090]

I guess tomorrow is July but it’s not often you have a storm forming this Far East in June threatening a Florida landfall.

There is no threat of a Florida landfall outside of some mid range models. And when that time comes, It's full blown July.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_gefs_latest.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_geps_latest.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_tracks_latest.png
no threat to florida???

No where is threatened at the moment including Florida. 1- no tropical storm has formed. 2- models are not worth looking at w/o an official center position this far out. And 3-even if this system does develop a lot can change before and if it even made a landfall along the U.S. coast because it is so far out. Don’t sweat it at this point.

[SFLcane]

18z HWRF hour 126:

https://i.imgur.com/vWrl4ln.png

Weakens substantially after crossing Cuba.

And west… Shields up lol. Long way to go with this one

[3090]

18z HWRF hour 126:

https://i.imgur.com/vWrl4ln.png

Weakens substantially after crossing Cuba.

This would be nice.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro essentially same track as the 12z Euro. Opens it up after passing the leeward islands.

[USTropics]

The main difference between the GFS and the ECWMF is short-term intensification/organization, which creates substantial track differences. You can see in the 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS run the differences in as little as 48 hours, with the ECMWF showing a weaker system, and thus gets caught in the faster low-level flow and a much quicker forward speed:

ECMWF


GFS


It's not just the operational suite either, as the ECMWF 12z ensemble members are progressively faster (and weaker) than the GFS ensemble members @ 72 hrs:

ECMWF ensembles


GFS ensembles