ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1410383666467901442

[eastcoastFL]

AL, 05, 2021070100, , BEST, 0, 96N, 456W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 140, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,

There it is: four tropical cyclones forming in June

That's 0z July 1 so technically it's not. But I suspect they will move it back to sometime today post season. But as of right now this is a July TD

That’s going to confuse some people seeing as how it’s still 6/30 officially in the US. But it is July 1 where the storm is located.

[Buck]

There it is: four tropical cyclones forming in June

That's 0z July 1 so technically it's not. But I suspect they will move it back to sometime today post season. But as of right now this is a July TD

Storm 5 on 6/30 or 7/1… nuts. I knew it would be a busy season but already smoking 2020 on a cyclogenesis date is blowing my mind.

[AutoPenalti]

Reminds me of Erika back in 2015, had a similar track if I remember, intensified rapidly and weakened but, had a smaller core.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Reminds me of Erika back in 2015, had a similar track if I remember, intensified rapidly and weakened but, had a smaller core.

I don't recall any significant model support for Erika, at least not as much as with TD5.

[AutoPenalti]

Reminds me of Erika back in 2015, had a similar track if I remember, intensified rapidly and weakened but, had a smaller core.

I don't recall any significant model support for Erika, at least not as much as with TD5.

I’ll have to dig back but I remember some models didn’t even forecast it to weaken as much as it did.

[aspen]

Reminds me of Erika back in 2015, had a similar track if I remember, intensified rapidly and weakened but, had a smaller core.

A fitting comparison, since Elsa was the replacement for Erika, and both look to have generally similar tracks.

I doubt Elsa is going to meet the same fate as Erika, because this isn’t a Super Nino year like 2015, it might come into the Caribbean as a 55-60 kt or stronger system, and Caribbean shear is pretty low for this time of year.

[Sciencerocks]

[Aric Dunn]

sure does look almost identical to what the HWRF was doing.. where a big Blob develops then rotates to the SW and after that it takes off.

[Deshaunrob17]

Watch and see what happens when this passes 50W. That's the magic line with systems in this part of the world...

[eastcoastFL]

[Aric Dunn]

Here is the ASCAT-A with the corrected Ambiguities... should be plenty good to go on this. Cant find a 35kt barbs but this does not show any corrections for wind speed.

[SFLcane]

Problem is if it does not strengthen now before reaching the islands the graveyard with catch it.

[NDG]

No upgrade…

https://i.postimg.cc/LX3M85q1/DDC6-C1-FC-1701-4406-BE68-4-D542-F0176-FE.jpg

ASCAT most times times has a hard time catching a developing closed circulation when is moving westward fast, a great example was last year where ASCAT missed west winds but the Recon found a closed circulation in about the same time.

[eastcoastFL]

Watch and see what happens when this passes 50W. That's the magic line with systems in this part of the world...

What happens ?

[SFLcane]

Here is the ASCAT-A with the corrected Ambiguities... should be plenty good to go on this. Cant find a 35kt barbs but this does not show any corrections for wind speed.

https://i.ibb.co/GP9PSRG/Capture.png

Hey Aric can you link me to this site?

[eastcoastFL]

sure does look almost identical to what the HWRF was doing.. where a big Blob develops then rotates to the SW and after that it takes off.

Absolutely does. Do you know why the euro sends this so much further north into Hispaniola while HWRF rides lower south of the islands ?

[eastcoastFL]

Problem is if it does not strengthen now before reaching the islands the graveyard with catch it.

You mean the terrain on the islands?

[Aric Dunn]

Here is the ASCAT-A with the corrected Ambiguities... should be plenty good to go on this. Cant find a 35kt barbs but this does not show any corrections for wind speed.

https://i.ibb.co/GP9PSRG/Capture.png

Hey Aric can you link me to this site?

https://scatterometer.knmi.nl/tile_prod ... 0&imgt=fla

[aspen]

Problem is if it does not strengthen now before reaching the islands the graveyard with catch it.

You mean the terrain on the islands?

No, he’s talking about the strong westerlies at this time of year that makes it difficult for weaker TCs to survive in the Caribbean, as they have difficultly generating eastward flow to close off their circulation. However, a stronger storm — say a high end TS or a Cat 1 hurricane — would not be impacted to the same degree as a weaker TS.