ATL: ELSA - Models

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF 90 hrs... Full degree N of 00z and still riding Cuba... If HWRF moves slightly N of Cuba, which is possible considering the trend I think it will show a strong hurricane...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HMON is going completely crazy, cat 4 . In this case I think I agree with Shell Mound that it must be a symptom of the hurricane models sometimes overdoing intensity, because such a storm in July would be insane. Also much further south than HWRF.

https://i.imgur.com/RgJVpyQ.png

Insane but definitely not unprecedented. 2005 had a Cat 4 and a Cat 5 in July. And last year had two Cat 4s in November, which is usually more hostile climatologically.

[jlauderdal]

HWRF into southern Hispaniola:

The hwrf is overcooking intensity which causes issues in the track..this system is leaning to the left

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[Nimbus]

With more island interaction the HWRF should have much weaker storm crossing the keys with 06Z run.
00z run forecast 996 mb at key west.

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF looks like the Canadian at the end. Weak TS heading into the middle of S. fl after a long trip across Cuba. I think if that scenario actually did play out with all that time over Cuba there wouldn’t even be a TS left

[Blown Away]

HWRF looks like the Canadian at the end. Weak TS heading into the middle of S. fl after a long trip across Cuba. I think if that scenario actually did play out with all that time over Cuba there wouldn’t even be a TS left

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021070106/hwrf_mslp_wind_05L_37.png

HWRF is weak because of the long ride along Cuba... If that tracks adjusts maybe 40-60 miles N I bet it maintains at least hurricane status.

[Nimbus]

HMON a tiny bit stronger in the gulf and a little closer to the west coast of Florida for 06z.

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF 11pm Tuesday up the spine of SFL. One thing I don’t like about this is even if it’s weaker it seems to be moving very slow at this point and it could dump a ton of rain on SFL

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF looks like the Canadian at the end. Weak TS heading into the middle of S. fl after a long trip across Cuba. I think if that scenario actually did play out with all that time over Cuba there wouldn’t even be a TS left

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021070106/hwrf_mslp_wind_05L_37.png

HWRF is weak because of the long ride along Cuba... If that tracks adjusts maybe 40-60 miles N I bet it maintains at least hurricane status.

A little north or a little south would make a big difference. It really took the scenic route across Cuba this run and I honestly think that will change a few times before it gets there (If it makes it that far west). But when it does head into SFL it’s slow as storms usually are when making that turn north,

[eastcoastFL]

A full 24 hours after reaching the peninsula it’s strengthening over lake O…We’ve seen that show before.

[toad strangler]

The FL peninsula is a very difficult target to hit from the S.

[eastcoastFL]

The FL peninsula is a very difficult target to hit from the S.

I think it’s harder to hit from the East. Don’t most storms that hit Fl from the south and southwest into the peninsula ?

[SFLcane]

06z GEFS ensembles are back east.

[kevin]

06z GFS ensemble:

[toad strangler]

The FL peninsula is a very difficult target to hit from the S.

I think it’s harder to hit from the East. Don’t most storms that hit Fl from the south and southwest into the peninsula ?

History is riddled with strikes from the E and SE. We are in a long stretch started post Katrina of nothing from the E and that skews the human mind. Matthew and Dorian nearly ended that. Tick tock. A Charley like track is much tougher.

The models are all over the place so I have zero confidence of anything post Hispaniola

[tolakram]

In another day or so the ECMWF will likely be vindicated, track- and intensity-wise. Just watch.

I sure hope so. But it really did terrible last year and it still seems to have the same issues early on this year. You can’t be the king and constantly fail to pick up on genesis and have to play catch up every time.

I still think the ECMWF is "king" once it properly initialises systems. Even when it doesn't, it usually handles the synoptic-scale and thermodynamic environment better than the other models. The irony is that even with its failure to gauge Elsa's genesis its solution near the Islands and over the E Caribbean may still be closest to reality, that is, weaker, faster, and farther N.

I really don't get the bias in forgiving the Euro. Here's a 5 run trend of the 0z. Which one is correct now?

[eastcoastFL]

The FL peninsula is a very difficult target to hit from the S.

I think it’s harder to hit from the East. Don’t most storms that hit Fl from the south and southwest into the peninsula ?

History is riddled with strikes from the E and SE. We are in a long stretch started post Katrina of nothing from the E and that skews the human mind. Matthew and Dorian nearly ended that. Tick tock. A Charley like track is much tougher.

The models are all over the place so I have zero confidence of anything post Hispaniola

Matthew was a rough night in PSL for me despite it staying off shore. If I didn’t know better it sounded like it was right over top for a while. I think a track like this current one is more likely to miss us to the East or go west and head for the panhandle/big bend area. The speed of Elsa and timing of the trough will ultimately decide all of that.

[eastcoastFL]

I sure hope so. But it really did terrible last year and it still seems to have the same issues early on this year. You can’t be the king and constantly fail to pick up on genesis and have to play catch up every time.

I still think the ECMWF is "king" once it properly initialises systems. Even when it doesn't, it usually handles the synoptic-scale and thermodynamic environment better than the other models. The irony is that even with its failure to gauge Elsa's genesis its solution near the Islands and over the E Caribbean may still be closest to reality, that is, weaker, faster, and farther N.

I really don't get the bias in forgiving the Euro. Here's a 5 run trend of the 0z. Which one is correct now?

https://i.imgur.com/IuslnkD.gif

It’s all over the place and that doesn’t scream confidence. Going back to last July it’s had to play catch up with every storm. Laura continues to come to mind. It missed genesis and threw the NHC for a loop by constantly sending it into the Bahamas as an open wave then it caught on and went towards Cuba but run after run it was an open wave not getting on board until it reached the gulf.

[tolakram]

Here's a trend of the 12Z Euro


Trend seems to be stronger, not weaker. I don't think any of the models have a clue, frankly. The LLC is moving too fast, I will believe this gets significantly stronger when I see it, and not a second sooner.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

In another day or so the ECMWF will likely be vindicated, track- and intensity-wise. Just watch.

I sure hope so. But it really did terrible last year and it still seems to have the same issues early on this year. You can’t be the king and constantly fail to pick up on genesis and have to play catch up every time.

I still think the ECMWF is "king" once it properly initialises systems. Even when it doesn't, it usually handles the synoptic-scale and thermodynamic environment better than the other models. The irony is that even with its failure to gauge Elsa's genesis its solution near the Islands and over the E Caribbean may still be closest to reality, that is, weaker, faster, and farther N.

But it's not the "king" - it regularly ranked below the GFS for track and the HWRF for intensity last year. See the NHC verification report. It's closer to the CMC.