ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jconsor]

One factor which favors a further south track is Elsa's recent tendency to track faster and south of model forecasts, and the short-term influence of northerly shear.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1410574198221672454

[toad strangler]

One factor which favors a further south track is Elsa's recent tendency to track faster and south of model forecasts, and the short-term influence of northerly shear.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1410574198221672454

I think he means WARY but he didn't go to school to be Shakespeare.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1410578977656352772

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1410576094751719426

[robbielyn]

I would like to know what kind of sheer or any dry will be in the gulf next week? Can anyone elaborate? Thanks.

[tolakram]

SLIDER Floater just moved, LLC upper right.
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=1588&y=1261.5&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[Aric Dunn]

center has tucked under the convection..

[wxman57]

I see a center about 70 miles west of the convection.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/TheLuckyCosmos/status/1410585675909509124

[Shell Mound]

center has tucked under the convection..

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1410575857685520390

[wxman57]

https://twitter.com/TheLuckyCosmos/status/1410585675909509124

He doesn't appear to know where the center is.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track has this position.

AL, 05, 2021070112, , BEST, 0, 99N, 502W, 35, 1006, TS

[Aric Dunn]

THe center has very clearly tucked under the canopy.

[AutoPenalti]

center has tucked under the convection..

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1410575857685520390

That's not the center in red...

[TallyTracker]

THe center has very clearly tucked under the canopy.

https://i.ibb.co/HxdXf35/RE-20210701-131727-1.gif

https://i.ibb.co/31CLMzW/Capture.png

I see the center due north of that on the northwest side of convective burst. Look closely at the low-level clouds beneath the cirrus canopy and you can see the circulation.

[Aric Dunn]

THe center has very clearly tucked under the canopy.

https://i.ibb.co/HxdXf35/RE-20210701-131727-1.gif

https://i.ibb.co/31CLMzW/Capture.png

I see the center due north of that on the northwest side of convective burst. Look closely at the low-level clouds beneath the cirrus canopy and you can see the circulation.

no

[eastcoastFL]

Per NHC and what I can see on microwave pass the center appears to be around 9.9n 50.2w

[Shell Mound]

THe center has very clearly tucked under the canopy.

https://i.ibb.co/HxdXf35/RE-20210701-131727-1.gif

https://i.ibb.co/31CLMzW/Capture.png

I see the center due north of that on the northwest side of convective burst. Look closely at the low-level clouds beneath the cirrus canopy and you can see the circulation.

Actually, in this case I side with Aric. A close examination of the lowest cloud-layer supports his estimated position of a new LLC. The old primary vortex to the WNW of the convection appears to be dissipating, with a new primary vortex consolidating farther east, beneath the convection. This structural evolution, along with current organisation trends, is in line with the HWRF and GFS, both of which correctly indicate decreasing vertical wind shear through the remainder of the day and overnight.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Center looks to be about 10.3N and 51W currently to me.

[JetFuel_SE]

https://twitter.com/TheLuckyCosmos/status/1410585675909509124

He doesn't appear to know where the center is.

Implying that you do?