ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#601 Postby presidentofyes12 » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:18 am

Aric Dunn wrote:So how is all that shear in the carrib going for everyone ?

Yesterday
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht-8.GIF

Now
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF


Yeah, with the lack of significant shear in the Caribbean right now, Elsa shouldn't have too much trouble intensifying (if it slows down, of course)
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#602 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:19 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:So how is all that shear in the carrib going for everyone ?

Yesterday
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht-8.GIF

Now
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

95L/what’s left of it putting in the work


Yeah, 95L is causing Damming in the low level flow across the cariib and in the upper level flow. throwing a rock in a stream and you get ripples that form upwards against the flow ( bow shock of sorts).

the convection from 95L disrupted the steady long wave shear across the carrib.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#603 Postby hipshot » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:20 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
TallyTracker wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:THe center has very clearly tucked under the canopy.

https://i.ibb.co/HxdXf35/RE-20210701-131727-1.gif

https://i.ibb.co/31CLMzW/Capture.png


I see the center due north of that on the northwest side of convective burst. Look closely at the low-level clouds beneath the cirrus canopy and you can see the circulation.


no

Looks like it may be just north east of the convective burst.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#604 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:26 am

Just curious, but is there a reason why Elsa is traveling so fast right now? Like 25 mph is like bullet train speed for a tropical system from what I understand?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#605 Postby chaser1 » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:29 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:So how is all that shear in the carrib going for everyone ?

Yesterday
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht-8.GIF

Now
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

95L/what’s left of it putting in the work


Yeah, 95L is causing Damming in the low level flow across the cariib and in the upper level flow. throwing a rock in a stream and you get ripples that form upwards against the flow ( bow shock of sorts).

the convection from 95L disrupted the steady long wave shear across the carrib.


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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#606 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:29 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Just curious, but is there a reason why Elsa is traveling so fast right now? Like 25 mph is like bullet train speed for a tropical system from what I understand?


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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#607 Postby hipshot » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:30 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Just curious, but is there a reason why Elsa is traveling so fast right now? Like 25 mph is like bullet train speed for a tropical system from what I understand?

I think it is due to the strong easterly trade winds this time of year.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#608 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:30 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Just curious, but is there a reason why Elsa is traveling so fast right now? Like 25 mph is like bullet train speed for a tropical system from what I understand?

Trades usually peak at this time of year. It doesn't slow down until mid-late August.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#609 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:32 am

Image
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#610 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:35 am


Has that fist look to it. Yikes.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#611 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:36 am

AutoPenalti wrote:

Has that fist look to it. Yikes.

The “fist” is usually a telltale indicator of potential short-term RI or at least steady deepening. Also, the outflow is more typical of a hurricane than a TS:

Image

The convective band developing just SW of the LLC is clearly attempting to merge with the convection on the eastern side...a formative mid-level “eye”?

 https://twitter.com/KieranBhatia/status/1410608945559859209


Last edited by Shell Mound on Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#612 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:38 am


Did anyone else see those very quick moving spots at the end of the loop on the top right?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#613 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:40 am

Shell Mound wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:

Has that fist look to it. Yikes.

The “fist” is usually a telltale indicator of potential short-term RI or at least steady deepening. Also, the outflow is more typical of a hurricane than a TS:
https://i.postimg.cc/wMMkqJHm/Ska-rmavbild-2021-07-01-kl-16-34-40.png

The convective band developing just SW of the LLC is clearly attempting to merge with the convection on the eastern side...a formative mid-level “eye”?

Laura had the fist when it first became a hurricane.
Last edited by InfernoFlameCat on Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#614 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:40 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:

Did anyone else see those very quick moving spots at the end of the loop on the top right?

Those are lightning strikes. The last several frames show some locally intense lightning near the LLC, which is another potential sign of steady or RI.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#615 Postby Stormybajan » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:41 am



Elsa does have good outflow for a 40-45 mph storm, but you can still see the northerly shear it dealing with ..based on the modelling it looks like it will have less of an impact on the storm as it reaches closer to the islands
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#616 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:43 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:

Did anyone else see those very quick moving spots at the end of the loop on the top right?


Reflection of the sun off the water.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#617 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:43 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:

Did anyone else see those very quick moving spots at the end of the loop on the top right?

Lightning is usually indicated in yellow. The sun reflection as it's already peaking mid-day.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#618 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:43 am

Shell Mound wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:

Did anyone else see those very quick moving spots at the end of the loop on the top right?

Those are lightning strikes. The last several frames show some locally intense lightning near the LLC, which is another potential sign of steady or RI.

No they are these little circular white spots that come in and then fade at the mid to end of the loop. I see the yellow dots that’s not what I am talking about.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#619 Postby aspen » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:47 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:So how is all that shear in the carrib going for everyone ?

Yesterday
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht-8.GIF

Now
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

95L/what’s left of it putting in the work


Yeah, 95L is causing Damming in the low level flow across the cariib and in the upper level flow. throwing a rock in a stream and you get ripples that form upwards against the flow ( bow shock of sorts).

the convection from 95L disrupted the steady long wave shear across the carrib.

Who was the person who first said that 95L could help make the environment ahead favorable for 97L/Elsa to develop? Good call.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#620 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:49 am

aspen wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:95L/what’s left of it putting in the work


Yeah, 95L is causing Damming in the low level flow across the cariib and in the upper level flow. throwing a rock in a stream and you get ripples that form upwards against the flow ( bow shock of sorts).

the convection from 95L disrupted the steady long wave shear across the carrib.

Who was the person who first said that 95L could help make the environment ahead favorable for 97L/Elsa to develop? Good call.

I believe it was our dear Aric Dunn. 8-)
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