ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HuracanMaster]

Gaining a fair bit of latitude to my eye about 10.3.

[wxman57]

Sat pic with NHC 15Z position at red crosshairs and 1430Z visible. Does Elsa even have an LLC? Recon would help.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Nhc has it at 40knots now 1006mb.

[Shell Mound]

[crimi481]

Table is set for hurricane strength. Only variable seems to be future land interaction.

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://i.postimg.cc/nhNRz3wG/Ska-rmavbild-2021-07-01-kl-16-50-35.png

This is better. .Elsa is looking good. Healthy convection that if it continues could put it at 45knots maybe 50. It needs to stack though if it wants to get any stronger.

[AutoPenalti]

Sat pic with NHC 15Z position at red crosshairs and 1430Z visible. Does Elsa even have an LLC? Recon would help.

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa3.JPG

Are we even sure that's the LLC? I would have imagined it was already tucked in under the convection.

[aspen]

https://i.postimg.cc/nhNRz3wG/Ska-rmavbild-2021-07-01-kl-16-50-35.png

That “forming fist” of convection also seems like it’s trying to cover up and tuck in the partially exposed circulation. More convective activity in that part of the storm throughout the day would help get the LLC and MLC stacked.

[wxman57]

Sat pic with NHC 15Z position at red crosshairs and 1430Z visible. Does Elsa even have an LLC? Recon would help.

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa3.JPG

Are we even sure that's the LLC? I would have imagined it was already tucked in under the convection.

Not 100% certain, but scatterometer and microwave data indicate it is well west of the squalls. It may well be that it doesn't have a well-defined LLC. Even a tropical wave can produce 35-40 kt winds if it's moving at 20-25 kts. Interesting that the consensus model agrees with the ECMWF in weakening/dissipating it as it passes the DR and tracks north across the Bahamas. NHC generally follows TVCN, which takes it well east of Florida.

[SFLcane]

Sat pic with NHC 15Z position at red crosshairs and 1430Z visible. Does Elsa even have an LLC? Recon would help.

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa3.JPG

Are we even sure that's the LLC? I would have imagined it was already tucked in under the convection.

Not 100% certain, but scatterometer and microwave data indicate it is well west of the squalls. It may well be that it doesn't have a well-defined LLC. Even a tropical wave can produce 35-40 kt winds if it's moving at 20-25 kts. Interesting that the consensus model agrees with the ECMWF in weakening/dissipating it as it passes the DR and tracks north across the Bahamas. NHC generally follows TVCN, which takes it well east of Florida.

They have not been following the TCVN since advisories were started.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1410613848533475343

[robbielyn]

So how is all that shear in the carrib going for everyone ?

Yesterday
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht-8.GIF

Now
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

Wow that is crazy for the gulf even this early. what about dry air? What about a possible ULL that could develop, they usually do.

[Aric Dunn]

the leader is starting to wrap around to the north side of center.. probably about to explode.

[AutoPenalti]

I've never seen the cone so narrow 5-6 days out. Amazing how far technology and forecasting has come.

[psyclone]

Storms in this location at this time of year tend to find a reason to fail. That's a possibility and perhaps the most likely outcome.

[eastcoastFL]

I've never seen the cone so narrow 5-6 days out. Amazing how far technology and forecasting has come.

Its not any narrower its just moving so fast that the 3 day cone is super long.

[eastcoastFL]

Most of the state of Florida is now in the cone but we still have no clue if it will even make it here. Fun stuff.

[presidentofyes12]

Most of the state of Florida is now in the cone but we still have no clue if it will even make it here. Fun stuff.

I think Elsa will make landfall in Florida, since the GFS, the CMC and the HWRF model are showing a Florida landfall. But at what intensity and where in Florida it will hit, I don't know.

[SFLcane]

Looks horrible satellite appearance has really degraded. Insane it’s Rocketing at 30 mph

[jlauderdal]

I've never seen the cone so narrow 5-6 days out. Amazing how far technology and forecasting has come.

Its not any narrower its just moving so fast that the 3 day cone is super long.

Actually it does get narrower as the error rate decreases over time.

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