ATL: ELSA - Models

[Steve]

Pinellas Co. and north are in play per the GFS. Finally it shows the Atlantic High pulsing a little bit keeping it to the west of the SW'rn part of the peninsula. Whether that will be enough to keep it offshore and get it to the panhandle looks questionable.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=132

[toad strangler]

[Cat5James]

It takes 24 hours to travel from the Keys to the Big Bend

[kevin]

12z GFS, 978/979 mbar and looks like it'll make landfall just north of Tampa. So once again, like 06z and 00z a hurricane landfall for Florida.

[Steve]

Landfall between Cedar Key and New Port Richey.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=144

Crossing NE FL after that. J'ville Joe ought to be waking up soon.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=150

[AxaltaRacing24]

12z GFS, 978/979 mbar and looks like it'll make landfall just north of Tampa. So once again, like 06z and 00z a hurricane landfall for Florida.

https://i.imgur.com/Cs8qaG1.gif

Hopefully that track doesn't play out. This is looking more and more like a certain storm in 2004.

[toad strangler]

[tolakram]

GFS keeps pushing out when Elsa strengthens, but keeps the west track. NHC is going west as well, and they have access to the Florida supers. Euro so far sticking to the more easterly track. Will the 12Z run go west? If Elsa is a sheared storm then the GFS generally does better, but not always.

[Cat5James]

12Z CMC directly into the tip of FL.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1410625116023754754

[toad strangler]

Bulk of 12z GEFS are West

[toad strangler]

12z CMC

[Nuno]

12z CMC

http://i.ibb.co/ZxQDTs5/CMC1.png

Had to traverse the length of Cuba for this track. Can imagine an Ernesto situation if this tracks further east.

[toad strangler]

Majority of 12z GEFS members continue to be significantly further W into the GOM than the OP.

[toad strangler]

[Steve]

That’s a west pull for the CMC which had been Bahamas for a few runs.

[jdray]

Landfall between Cedar Key and New Port Richey.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=144

Crossing NE FL after that. J'ville Joe ought to be waking up soon.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=150

Any storm that comes in from Tampa north to the big bend area heading NE is bad for Jax. Dirty side of the storm is never fun.

That said, we are watching this and our local NWS is in the "monitoring, but still too early to speculate" mode.

[aspen]

The HWRF seems to initialize this system well and provide a reasonable solution for its short-term evolution. It shows Elsa having an offset and slightly oblong circulation for nearly a full day, until finally stacking around the time of tomorrow’s 11am advisory and slowly intensifying along the way. It also has a drier path of air that attempts to sneak in, but moisture wraps around the center overnight into tomorrow morning. Elsa then gets below 990 mbar just past the Lesser Antilles.

[AutoPenalti]

The HWRF seems to initialize this system well and provide a reasonable solution for its short-term evolution. It shows Elsa having an offset and slightly oblong circulation for nearly a full day, until finally stacking around the time of tomorrow’s 11am advisory and slowly intensifying along the way. It also has a drier path of air that attempts to sneak in, but moisture wraps around the center overnight into tomorrow morning. Elsa then gets below 990 mbar just past the Lesser Antilles.

It's further South at 48hrs.

[DestinHurricane]

at hour 48 HWRF is not only 1 mb stronger but it is also more than a degree further south than 6Z run. As I said in the discussion, I think the delays in intensification and thus delays in latitude gain are going to cause south/west shifts.