ATL: ELSA - Models

[NDG]

The main reason why the Euro keeps crashing Elsa into Hispaniola is because it forecasts a weaker western extent to the ridge than what the GFS shows before the eastern US trough starts lifting early next week. Mind boggling difference in such a short range.

[toad strangler]

The main reason why the Euro keeps crashing Elsa into Hispaniola is because it forecasts a weaker western extent to the ridge than what the GFS shows before the eastern US trough starts lifting early next week. Mind boggling difference in such a short range.

https://i.imgur.com/gs0kDVa.png
https://i.imgur.com/1LE0TLe.png

That "fork in the ridge" will tell the story and it's not too far down the road. GFS keeps this just far enough S to miss the right side of the fork.

[Nimbus]

The trough that has been shearing the 95L remnants hasn't really had much effect on the track you can still see an apex south of 10N. Not much left to keep that digging over Hispaniola now but Euro hasn't caved yet.

[Steve]

HWRF run finishes on the west side of Florida for now.

Yeah. It's still got a western component at 126 hours but it's going more N than W.

Rough eyeballing:

108 Hours - 23.07N 82.41W
117 Hours - 24.36N 83.77W
126 Hours - 26.41N 84.5W

For reference for the northern Gulf - New Orleans 90W, Gulfport 89W, Mobile 88W, Pensacola 87.2W, Grayton Beach 86W +/-, Apalachicola 85W. then like Flint Rock WMA is 84W. That's probably the sparsest populated area on the northern FL Gulf Coast on the eastern side of Apalachee Bay.

[floridasun78]

nhc dont see this as hurr their think it stay under 60mph or so as get to cuba

It’s not that they don’t see Elsa as a hurricane, they do acknowledge their forecast is at the lower end of forecast intensity models and are being somewhat conservative.

They’re mainly waiting for the storm to pass the islands to get a better understanding on if there will be any interaction with the Greater Antilles.

plane will tell us more on friday too

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The main reason why the Euro keeps crashing Elsa into Hispaniola is because it forecasts a weaker western extend to the ridge than what the GFS shows before the eastern US trough starts lifting early next week. Mind boggling difference in such a short range....

That's a monster trough on those plots you posted for this time of year (peak summer rapidly approaching, in roughly two weeks). I'm skeptical it'll verify to the southern extent shown but who knows it's been a wacky year already.

[Bigdan75]

Hello has the ukmet ran yet

[Steve]

Hello has the ukmet ran yet

The link I have only goes out 72 hours, and it's done for 12z. So wherever the longer runs are, I'm sure it's up until landfall by now.
https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weath ... &dd=latest

[NDG]

Euro is all alone crashing it into Hispaniola.

[TallahasseeMan]

Euro is all alone crashing it into Hispaniola.

https://i.imgur.com/AJWMNQc.gif

Somewhat more interesting is that the TVCN has finally joined the others in the gulf.

[SFLcane]

Watch out gulf coast/ northern Florida. TVCN finally shifts and way west, too.

[toad strangler]

Watch out gulf coast/ northern Florida. TVCN finally shifts and way west, too.

So far out still even at break neck speed. I'm holding serve on anything post GA's until land interaction or lack thereof is known.

[sweetpea]

Watch out gulf coast/ northern Florida. TVCN finally shifts and way west, too.

Watching this one closely!!! TVCN basically is pointing right to me! Been prepping today just in case, we are leaving tomorrow for the 4th and won't be back until Monday night.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Euro is all alone crashing it into Hispaniola.

https://i.imgur.com/AJWMNQc.gif

2016/17 where the Euro and UK made bold accurate calls feels so long ago now.

Fast forward to 2020/21 and we are looking at the GFS and HWRF.

[chaser1]

Watch out gulf coast/ northern Florida. TVCN finally shifts and way west, too.

So far out still even at break neck speed. I'm holding serve on anything post GA's until land interaction or lack thereof is known.

Both points are reasonable to ponder. Fact is, the EURO remains as the easternmost outlier. Land interaction with "the rock" notwithstanding, I can also envision another wrinkle to a potential track into the GOM. Depending on the timing of Elsa's forward speed slowing down due to a weakening of the western flank of the W. Atlantic ridge, it's conceivable that the storm could be anywhere from south of Cuba to over S. Florida at a point where the sharp E. Conus trough has fully lifted out. Depending on how quick mid level height rises fill in, along with the orientation of the building ridge east or north of Florida.... and you could well have a T.S. or Hurricane somewhat blunted from a continued pole ward motion, and quite potentially driving the system to track more WNW'ward again. That scenario would very well put most of the Northern Gulf Coast into play.

The flip-side to all of this (as Toad Strangler alluded) is not only the potential for career-ending land interaction.... but also the very real possibility of "premature stormification" (yes, I DID make that up ). There's a reason we so rarely see any long-tracking MDR storm this early in the season. Decoupling is a far more common outcome for storms racing westward at 25 mph or more. Pick your poison - Land induced road rash OR decapitation? Neither are a given but either remains on the table for at least a couple days.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Euro is all alone crashing it into Hispaniola.

https://i.imgur.com/AJWMNQc.gif

2016/17 where the Euro and UK made bold accurate calls feels so long ago now.

Fast forward to 2020/21 and we are looking at the GFS and HWRF.

Yes, although there is almost always some difference in how the Euro and GFS treat the synoptic features- the ridge and extent and height of the westward lobe seems to be the biggest difference in the solutions. If Elsa was moving at 6 kts vs 24 kts the variance in the solutions would be even greater. Either one could easily verify. HWRF and GFS have been a lot better with recent upgrades, but at Euro gives us something to watch for in the obs. This is the fun part, but Elsa is really covering the ground and keeping the cone "tight"

[toad strangler]

18z GFS through 66 hours is weaker but no cave to Euro on track yet as Elsa will pass Hispaniola to the S AND punch the gap between Jamaica and Cuba

[SFLcane]

18z GFS through 66 hours is weaker but no cave to Euro on track yet as Elsa will pass Hispaniola to the S AND punch the gap between Jamaica and Cuba

Looks north of 12z run.

[toad strangler]

There is a more NE component through 78 as compared to the last two runs

[Cat5James]

Trending back towards So Flo?