ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

[Steve H.]

Agree she is looking better this hour as she has all day.

[DestinHurricane]

Agree she is looking better this hour as she has all day.

Impressive considering it's dmin. After sunset should really start to explode.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa most likely 45 knots now with that convection and a visible increase in storm rotation speed.

[kevin]

Very impressive considering we're at Dmin now. The only thing that can still go 'wrong' (or right depending on how you look at it) for Elsa is if its extreme speed causes it to open up again. As long as that doesn't happen I think we're gonna see the start of a consistent intensification phase this evening/tomorrow morning as f.e. GFS and HWRF show.

[tolakram]

SLIDER as the sun sets. There's convection near the center, but I don't see anything wrapping yet.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=14936&y=8630&z=3&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[Hurricaneman]

Looks as though the last hour or two the shear has lessened and this is stacking, don’t be surprised if this is stronger before the lesser Antilles of current organization continues

[Aric Dunn]

Shhhhhhh...... it is coming........

[AnnularCane]

Just the one named storm but the Atlantic looks busy

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/images/irng8.GIF

I have to admit I double checked the date to make sure you weren't trying to pass off some previous pic from August or September as current.

[DestinHurricane]

Looks as though the last hour or two the shear has lessened and this is stacking, don’t be surprised if this is stronger before the lesser Antilles of current organization continues

Shear hasn't been a problem. Look at the outflow, it is expanding out fine, a sign of a healthy storm shear wise.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Very impressive considering we're at Dmin now. The only thing that can still go 'wrong' (or right depending on how you look at it) for Elsa is if it's extreme speed causes it to open up again. As long as that doesn't happen I think we're gonna see consistent intensification soon.

Convection has wrapped mostly around the center that looks like an eye. It’s not. Anyhow a rapid intensification phase is likely to begin in my opinion. I see towers popping up around the system, indicative of a strengthening young system. Elsa is letting those storms go .

[eastcoastFL]

[eastcoastFL]

Just the one named storm but the Atlantic looks busy

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/images/irng8.GIF

I have to admit I double checked the date to make sure you weren't trying to pass off some previous pic from August or September as current.

No trickery here. Just one angry ocean with things to do.

[Kingarabian]

NHC fix is 11.2/53.8. That's still about 1/1.5 degrees west of the deepest convection. Not a sign of a rapidly developing system yet. Needs to slow down for it to develop further.

It definitely looks like it has a nice structure on visible, but IR imagery shows a system that is struggling to consolidate.

[NDG]

I disagree with the NHC's best track position at 5 PM DST, clearly on visible the LLC is further SE.

[Aric Dunn]

I disagree with the NHC's best track position at 5 PM DST, clearly on visible the LLC is further SE.

yeah that far north yet or west..

[Jevo]

5pm Disco
The guidance becomes rather divergent as this happens, as the ECWMF and the ECMWF ensembles forecast a turn toward the north while the GFS and UKMET are forecasting a continued west-northwestward to northwestward motion. In addition, the GFS ensemble members are spread from a continued west-northwestward motion toward the Yucatan Peninsula on one side to a northward motion east of the northern Bahamas on the other. The latter part of the new NHC forecast track will still lean more toward the
deterministic GFS/UKMET solutions, but the confidence remains low.

The new official forecast track again has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast..

I really do enjoy a Jack 'Hurricane' Beven forecast disco. He is from the old guard that started under Sheets/Mayfield.

[InfernoFlameCat]

We need recon to determine the center of this thing. I also disagree with the euro model dissipating it. Should be renamed Hans model.

[Mialco]

We need recon to determine the center of this thing. I also disagree with the euro model dissipating it. Should be renamed Hans model.

I wish recon was investigating in time for the findings to be of some use to Barbados and the other islands.............. you might get data from us before anything comes from recon

[NDG]

Good night Elsa, I still think you look much better than this morning