ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weatherwatcher2018]

We need recon to determine the center of this thing. I also disagree with the euro model dissipating it. Should be renamed Hans model.

I wish recon was investigating in time for the findings to be of some use to Barbados and the other islands.............. you might get data from us before anything comes from recon

I think Barbados might escape the worse

[Mialco]

We need recon to determine the center of this thing. I also disagree with the euro model dissipating it. Should be renamed Hans model.

I wish recon was investigating in time for the findings to be of some use to Barbados and the other islands.............. you might get data from us before anything comes from recon

I think Barbados might escape the worse

Last I heard, Elsa is forecast to pass about 40m south of Barbados. The TS wind field extends 90m mainly to the north... Definitely not as bad as a Cat1 and above (IF there isn't significant increase in intensity), but the ground is already saturated from 95L, so it will still be problems for us here. Plus we have over 100 houses that were damaged by wind from what people have been calling a 'freak storm' (not a TS) 2 weeks ago. What may appear to be slight variance in the positioning of the centre, may be a big difference for us and the other islands.

[galaxy401]

Good night Elsa, I still think you look much better than this morning

There's an increase in lightning activity as the sun sets. Goes along with that burst of convection near the center.

[Hurricaneman]

My forecast for Elsa

The organization continues to improve and now the MLC seems to be catching the surface low but the NW side seems to be convectively anemic. Seems as though that’s changing and may allow for some intensification before the lesser Antilles

Beyond the Lesser Antilles is where there’s still some divergence with the Euro with a less stout ridge allowing this to go north through Hispaniola and east of the Bahamas while most of the other models are West coast of Florida or to the Panhandle

Here’s my intensity forecast for Elsa

Now. 45mph Ts
12hrs. 50mph Ts
24hrs. 60mph Ts near Grenada
36hrs. 60mph Ts
48hrs. 65mph Ts
60hrs. 70mph Ts near the tip of Haiti no landfall
72hrs. 65mph Ts
84hrs. 80mph H1
96hrs. 90mph H1 Cuba Landfall
108hrs. 80mph.H1
120hrs. 100mph H2 landfall Sarasota Fl

My cone has everyone from Miami to Mobile similar to the NHC except a pinch west

For official forecasts please refer to the NHC, NOAA and NWS products

[InfernoFlameCat]

My forecast for Elsa

The organization continues to improve and now the MLC seems to be catching the surface low but the NW side seems to be convectively anemic. Seems as though that’s changing and may allow for some intensification before the lesser Antilles

Beyond the Lesser Antilles is where there’s still some divergence with the Euro with a less stout ridge allowing this to go north through Hispaniola and east of the Bahamas while most of the other models are West coast of Florida or to the Panhandle

Here’s my intensity forecast for Elsa

Now. 45mph Ts
12hrs. 50mph Ts
24hrs. 60mph Ts near Grenada
36hrs. 60mph Ts
48hrs. 65mph Ts
60hrs. 70mph Ts near the tip of Haiti no landfall
72hrs. 65mph Ts
84hrs. 80mph H1
96hrs. 90mph H1 Cuba Landfall
108hrs. 80mph.H1
120hrs. 100mph H2 landfall Sarasota Fl

My cone has everyone from Miami to Mobile similar to the NHC except a pinch west

For official forecasts please refer to the NHC, NOAA and NWS products

Smells like the HWRF to me. Try to include more models into your forecast.

[HeeBGBz]

Shhhhhhh...... it is coming........

Let it blow, let it blow..

[SFLcane]

Good night Elsa, I still think you look much better than this morning

https://i.imgur.com/Dm110C5.gif

Could be looking at much different storm in the morning.

[aspen]

Good night Elsa, I still think you look much better than this morning

https://i.imgur.com/Dm110C5.gif

Lots of lighting strikes in the convection closest to the LLC…that might be a sign of some level of intensification and organization.

[SFLcane]

Here she goes…

[Dean4Storms]

Still a bit ragged looking and outflow is limited in the northern periphery, LLC is also at the western edge of the MLC but convection is trying to catch up. Moving westward at 29mph will make this struggle to intensify quickly.

[Cat5James]

That convective blowup is directly over the center.... this could be a very interesting evening.

[jdjaguar]

Here she goes…

https://i.postimg.cc/HLN6K6Mn/BA1-C03-F6-D435-48-E7-BE46-B3-CC86596053.gif

shrimping no doubt.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

Here she goes…

https://i.postimg.cc/HLN6K6Mn/BA1-C03-F6-D435-48-E7-BE46-B3-CC86596053.gif

shrimping no doubt.

Good or bad thing ?

[captainbarbossa19]

I hope Elsa does not get any ideas of following along with the lyrics in "Let it Go." It seems like there is a verse that involves testing her limits.

[tiger_deF]

Here she goes…

https://i.postimg.cc/HLN6K6Mn/BA1-C03-F6-D435-48-E7-BE46-B3-CC86596053.gif

shrimping no doubt.

Good or bad thing ?

A "shrimp" appearance is a classical sign of an intensifying TC

[aspen]

That convective blowup is directly over the center.... this could be a very interesting evening.

She’s blowing up a ton of convection and hot towers now. That main burst might be enough to help stack the MLC and LLC.

[InfernoFlameCat]

koi

shrimping no doubt.

Good or bad thing ?

A "shrimp" appearance is a classical sign of an intensifying TC

when tropical cyclones make you hungry. Elsa also looks hungry for intensification.

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh yeah I think Elsa is trying to get her act together now, we’ll see though.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

Oh yeah I think Elsa is trying to get her act together now, we’ll see though. The NHC forecast cone does call for an eventual hurricane now

I’m not seeing that in the last update

[Weatherwatcher2018]

Oh yeah I think Elsa is trying to get her act together now, we’ll see though. The NHC forecast cone does call for an eventual hurricane now

I’m not seeing that in the last update