ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/tccapture.gif

Looks like the Euro might nail this one down trackwise.

? Seems to be following NHC track so far. I think NHC will nail the track.

[SFLcane]

Still popping convection very close if not over the LLC.

[tiger_deF]

There looks to be two rotating hot towers in that puff of convection, is that just an MLC artifact or a potential attempt at more consolidation?

[sikkar]

Appears to be making the classic embryo shape. Looking a lot better than just few hours ago.

[SconnieCane]

18Z HWRF not backing down with a beastly major hurricane depicted at hour 66 which then scrapes the NE coast of Jamaica before heading for Cuba. If it's anywhere close to correct, this might be the first and last time we see an Elsa in the Atlantic.

[Kingarabian]

There looks to be two rotating hot towers in that puff of convection, is that just an MLC artifact or a potential attempt at more consolidation?

That's likely the MLC. In the next hour we'll see where SAB fixes the LLC, but per the most recent MW passes the LLC continues to outpace the MLC. Which I believe is the big convection mass on IR imagery.

[aspen]

There looks to be two rotating hot towers in that puff of convection, is that just an MLC artifact or a potential attempt at more consolidation?

That's likely the MLC. In the next hour we'll see where SAB fixes the LLC, but per the most recent MW passes the LLC continues to outpace the MLC. Which I believe is the big convection mass on IR imagery.

Based on what cirrus clouds I can see in the nighttime imagery, I think the LLC is indeed outpacing the convective blob…but not by much. Seems the LLC and MLC are closer to being stacked than they were earlier.

[chaser1]

Just a thought here for us "wobble-watchers". It appears that the bursting convection associated with the MLC is beginning to expand and gain a bit more latitude. Unless the LLC pulls a quarterback bootleg and rolls west (potentially decoupling from the MLC), then I think we'll see a stair-step repositioning of center further to the north by morning. Especially if dmax helps Elsa crank up the convection this evening. Just speculation, but if that happens I'd expect at least a bit of an Eastward adjustment starting with the 12Z models based on the more northwesterly adjusted COC initialization. That alone "could" put Hispaniola a.k.a. "the rock" at greater risk as the EURO has stubbornly suggested.

[eastcoastFL]

Upshear is the direction from which the shear (vector) is coming.
Downshear is the direction toward which the shear is blowing.

Think of it in the same terms that you would use for the flow of a river - upstream and downstream.

Thank you, so In that context what would it mean to be wrapping upshear?

In that context, it would be stating that the convection is wrapping around on the side of the system from where the shear is coming.

Got it. Thanks

[Kingarabian]

TXNT28 KNES 020001
TCSNTL

A. 05L (ELSA)

B. 01/2330Z

C. 11.9N

D. 54.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...7/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET AND
PET ARE EQUAL TO 2.5 BASED ON A STEADY TREND IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT
IS BASED ON MET AS BANDING IS NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

How are they fixing it @ 11.9N/54W and only have a 2.5? 11.9/54 would have the LLC stacked beneath the convection, which would mean a CDO is in place and its stacked below the MLC. Cloud tops are cold so it would probably be a 3.0/3.5 on Dvorak, a strong TS/borderline hurricane.

[Cat5James]

First glimpse of pink (coldest cloud tops) on IR. Elsa is certainly strengthening.

[Aric Dunn]

TXNT28 KNES 020001
TCSNTL

A. 05L (ELSA)

B. 01/2330Z

C. 11.9N

D. 54.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...7/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET AND
PET ARE EQUAL TO 2.5 BASED ON A STEADY TREND IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT
IS BASED ON MET AS BANDING IS NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

How are they fixing it @ 11.9N/54W and only have a 2.5? 11.9/54 would have the LLC stacked beneath the convection, which would mean a CDO is in place and its stacked below the MLC. Cloud tops are called so it would probably be a 3.0/3.5 on Dvorak, a strong TS/borderline hurricane.

because you cant see anything ....

though extrapolating from last visible would tell you it is not up that far unless it got pulled that way.. ..

we just have to wait and see.

[Aric Dunn]

45kt ASCAT

[Kingarabian]

TXNT28 KNES 020001
TCSNTL

A. 05L (ELSA)

B. 01/2330Z

C. 11.9N

D. 54.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...7/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET AND
PET ARE EQUAL TO 2.5 BASED ON A STEADY TREND IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT
IS BASED ON MET AS BANDING IS NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

How are they fixing it @ 11.9N/54W and only have a 2.5? 11.9/54 would have the LLC stacked beneath the convection, which would mean a CDO is in place and its stacked below the MLC. Cloud tops are called so it would probably be a 3.0/3.5 on Dvorak, a strong TS/borderline hurricane.

because you cant see anything ....

though extrapolating from last visible would tell you it is not up that far unless it got pulled that way.. ..

we just have to wait and see.

My point is that if their fix is in that position, the Dvorak numbers should be higher.

In regards to extrapolation, if we go by this 2 hour old MW pass, SAB thinks the LLC made a significant jump east.

[Kingarabian]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

...ELSA HEADING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA AND A PORTION OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 54.7W
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

That NHC fix makes more sense right now IMO. But it's getting closer and closer to stacking with each convective blowup. Let's see if it continues.

[EquusStorm]

Legitimately pretty impressed with this, you don't see stuff wrapping upshear and organized tops that cold in storms moving this fast every day. The north side is going to pack a pretty decent punch

[Deshaunrob17]

Elsa probably might do better than several other storms during the peak of the season in this part of the Atlantic - Maria (2011), Harvey (2017) Kirk (2018), Karen (2019)

[cycloneye]

Up to 45kts- Moving at 290 degrees at 22 kts

05L ELSA 210702 0000 11.4N 54.7W ATL 45 1003 INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 22

[Yellow Evan]

This technically should be 50 given the low bias of ASCAT.

[cycloneye]

A. 05L (ELSA)

B. 01/2330Z

C. 11.9N

D. 54.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...7/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET AND
PET ARE EQUAL TO 2.5 BASED ON A STEADY TREND IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT
IS BASED ON MET AS BANDING IS NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE