ATL: ELSA - Models

[eastcoastFL]

The 5PM NHC Cone is a large repudiation of the Euro

The euro is no longer the teachers pet. Instead of there being a new one the teacher is just confused, Seemed like every storm last year and now this year has had a disco saying “due to this uncertainty at this time is higher than usual”.

[DestinHurricane]

The 5PM NHC Cone is a large repudiation of the Euro

NHC >>>>>> Euro.

[Category5Kaiju]

The Euro: goes from the king several years ago to the servant in recent years.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z usually bunk run. but my cousin would be in the crosshairs. and miami doesn’t need the rain with trying to do search and rescue even if it’s not a direct hit. let’s hope the unmet is right and turns elsa into a trough.

18z isn’t really a bunk run. The general idea behind that the 6z and 18z used to initialize with a lot less new data than the 0z and 12z runs some years ago, but I believe that gap has been closing. Even accounting for any discrepancies that may still exist, the subsequent 18z run is likely to be at least on par with the accuracy of the previous 12z simply because it’s 6 hours closer in time to an upcoming event.

However, this topic tends to start a distracting side debate, which I would like to avoid, so I’ll just summarize and say it wouldn’t be wise to undervalue or overvalue any single run.

[aspen]

964 mbar and 110 kt landfall on the eastern tip of Jamaica in 69 hours. So far, this is the strongest HWRF run, and has the scariest simulated IR presentation. It could get even stronger this run before hitting Cuba.

[Steve]

18z GEFS are once again weighted much further WEST even with the Op shift EAST

Gonna be a long weekend with the wind shield wipers on

Florida vs Florida. Haha.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Sorry for the OT, but why is the main discussion thread locked?

[SFLcane]

18z Hmon and hwrf are way west.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro same as the past runs track and intensity. Takes it over the DR and lifts it NE.

[aspen]

18z HWRF has it intensifying in the gulf. 975 mbar @117 hr with a pretty compact structure.

[SunnyThoughts]

HWRF wayyyy west @117 hours almost to 86 W 975mb

[toad strangler]

18z Hmon and hwrf are way west.

GEFS lead the way!

Probably not 11PM but the 7AM cone may not include the eastern half of the FL peninsula.

[SFLcane]

18z Hmon and hwrf are way west.

GEFS lead the way!

Probably not 11PM but the 7AM cone may not include the eastern half of the FL peninsula.

Hmm not sure. Recon will tell us more tomorrow. You have 2 of the best models north and east still.

[toad strangler]

18z Hmon and hwrf are way west.

GEFS lead the way!

Probably not 11PM but the 7AM cone may not include the eastern half of the FL peninsula.

Hmm not sure. Recon will tell us more tomorrow. You have 2 of the best models north and east still.

Mostly tongue in cheek .... nothing matters until we see what emerges post GA's.

[eastcoastFL]

18z Euro same as the past runs track and intensity. Takes it over the DR and lifts it NE.

It’s either really on to something or it’s given up.

[Nimbus]

GFS made landfall near Sarasota Florida for the 18z, wonder if they will follow the HWRF west in future runs? Kind of a wide cone to work with can't really say this is a westward trend in the models yet despite the fact that the model initialization has been a little further south the last few runs.

[Cat5James]

18z Euro same as the past runs track and intensity. Takes it over the DR and lifts it NE.

It’s either really on to something or it’s given up.

I will be stunned if the Euro turns out to be very off (which I suspect it will be), and was unable to make proper adjustments run over run. I expect better.

[eastcoastFL]

GEFS lead the way!

Probably not 11PM but the 7AM cone may not include the eastern half of the FL peninsula.

Hmm not sure. Recon will tell us more tomorrow. You have 2 of the best models north and east still.

Mostly tongue in cheek .... nothing matters until we see what emerges post GA's.

I don’t think the GA are going to have much effect if any at all. This thing is moving too fast and they’re pretty uneventful for a storm.

[cheezyWXguy]

Hmm not sure. Recon will tell us more tomorrow. You have 2 of the best models north and east still.

Mostly tongue in cheek .... nothing matters until we see what emerges post GA's.

I don’t think the GA are going to have much effect if any at all. This thing is moving too fast and they’re pretty uneventful for a storm.

Are you thinking of the lesser Antilles? The greater Antilles include Hispaniola and Cuba

[eastcoastFL]

Mostly tongue in cheek .... nothing matters until we see what emerges post GA's.

I don’t think the GA are going to have much effect if any at all. This thing is moving too fast and they’re pretty uneventful for a storm.

Are you thinking of the lesser Antilles? The greater Antilles include Hispaniola and Cuba

Yes, yes I am lol. Thanks for the correction.