ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

There are a bunch of tiny pink towers bubbling on IR imagery. I can’t wait to see what recon finds in the morning.

[AJC3]

45kt ASCAT

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc21/ATL/05L.ELSA/ascat/hires/LATEST.jpg

This confirms the shift of the shear vector from E to SW. Dead giveaways were the the M/I imagery, and qudrant of the tight IR temperature gradient that developed "between "6 an 9 o'clock" on IR imagery.

Pretty crazy that the shear vector was easterly yesterday, apparently out of the north briefly this morning (according to social media posts I read) and is now from the SW.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1410766507622158338

[St0rmTh0r]

18Z HWRF not backing down with a beastly major hurricane depicted at hour 66 which then scrapes the NE coast of Jamaica before heading for Cuba. If it's anywhere close to correct, this might be the first and last time we see an Elsa in the Atlantic.

Gonna make a bold prediction and say this joins Hurricane Emily as the only cat 5s ever recorded in July. This hurricane season has very unusual conditions for this early in the deep tropical Atlantic with several well defined tropical waves. Haven't seen a year to compare to this one because of the unusually warm gulf of Guinea. Does anyone have any insight on years with a warm gulf of Guinea?

[aspen]

http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1410766507622158338?s=20

The LLC looks closer to 11N than 11.4N on that pass. Would that convection be enough to tug it a bit north, or is it going too fast?

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa is letting it go! Look at that. Wish I knew how to post pics on mobile. I believe an RI phase has begun

[St0rmTh0r]

45kt ASCAT

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc21/ATL/05L.ELSA/ascat/hires/LATEST.jpg

This confirms the shift of the shear vector from E to SW. Dead giveaways were the the M/I imagery, and qudrant of the tight IR temperature gradient that developed "between "6 an 9 o'clock" on IR imagery.

Pretty crazy that the shear vector was easterly yesterday, apparently out of the north briefly this morning (according to social media posts I read) and is now from the SW.

How can it change like that so suddenly?

[Category5Kaiju]

18Z HWRF not backing down with a beastly major hurricane depicted at hour 66 which then scrapes the NE coast of Jamaica before heading for Cuba. If it's anywhere close to correct, this might be the first and last time we see an Elsa in the Atlantic.

Gonna make a bold prediction and say this joins Hurricane Emily as the only cat 5s ever recorded in July. This hurricane season has very unusual conditions for this early in the deep tropical Atlantic with several well defined tropical waves. Haven't seen a year to compare to this one because of the unusually warm gulf of Guinea. Does anyone have any insight on years with a warm gulf of Guinea?

This level of warmth in the Gulf of Guinea has really not been paralleled in the recent past if I am not mistaken. Also, while I seriously hope and do not think it will occur, if Elsa actually becomes a Cat 4 or 5 storm, I'll eat my shoe and do 90 burpees nonstop. And if it beats Emily in strength, I'm moving to Mars.

[GeneratorPower]

Elsa is letting it go! Look at that. Wish I knew how to post pics on mobile. I believe an RI phase has begun

This is not rapid intensification. It’s not even fully stacked. Check back in 12 hours and see if we find some more symmetry.

[AutoPenalti]

I have yet to see a CDO developing so I’m still guessing it hasn’t stacked yet.

[abajan]

There are a bunch of tiny pink towers bubbling on IR imagery. I can’t wait to see what recon finds in the morning.

Well, that will be of little use to us in Barbados. Recon needs to be in there right now!

[GeneratorPower]

There are a bunch of tiny pink towers bubbling on IR imagery. I can’t wait to see what recon finds in the morning.

Well, that will be of little use to us in Barbados. Recon needs to be in there right now!

We always need more recon, baby. But I think we can see what’s in store for Barbados using satellite and radar for now. Should be ok.

[ElectricStorm]

It's not RIing yet, needs to get stacked first and even when that happens it will probably be more of a steady strengthening trend instead of rapid.

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF really nailing this one so far. Interested to see how track plays out

[abajan]

18Z HWRF not backing down with a beastly major hurricane depicted at hour 66 which then scrapes the NE coast of Jamaica before heading for Cuba. If it's anywhere close to correct, this might be the first and last time we see an Elsa in the Atlantic.

Gonna make a bold prediction and say this joins Hurricane Emily as the only cat 5s ever recorded in July. This hurricane season has very unusual conditions for this early in the deep tropical Atlantic with several well defined tropical waves. Haven't seen a year to compare to this one because of the unusually warm gulf of Guinea. Does anyone have any insight on years with a warm gulf of Guinea?

No, but suffice it to say that Atlantic Niño is a real thing - and there's one happening this year.

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF really nailing this one so far. Interested to see how track plays out

The HWRF has been downright impressive the last couple of years. Hopefully it's wrong though because if it's not, it's gonna be a big problem for someone down the road...

[Kazmit]

Question: If the max winds are 45 kts and it's moving at 25 kts to the west, does that mean they are actually more like 65 kts on the north side of the storm?

[StPeteMike]

It's not RIing yet, needs to get stacked first and even when that happens it will probably be more of a steady strengthening trend instead of rapid.

Yeah, the speed will hamper any rapid intensification. But a steady increase to 60 mph (as depicted in the models and forecast) is likely.

[aspen]

It's not RIing yet, needs to get stacked first and even when that happens it will probably be more of a steady strengthening trend instead of rapid.

It’s certainly way closer to being stacked than earlier this afternoon, and this is the healthiest it has looked too. I think it will intensify somewhat quickly while stacked, but no crazy peak season RI; something that barely qualifies as RI. Maybe we get a 60-65 kt system on the hurricane/TS border as it passes through the LAs.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

18Z HWRF not backing down with a beastly major hurricane depicted at hour 66 which then scrapes the NE coast of Jamaica before heading for Cuba. If it's anywhere close to correct, this might be the first and last time we see an Elsa in the Atlantic.

Gonna make a bold prediction and say this joins Hurricane Emily as the only cat 5s ever recorded in July. This hurricane season has very unusual conditions for this early in the deep tropical Atlantic with several well defined tropical waves. Haven't seen a year to compare to this one because of the unusually warm gulf of Guinea. Does anyone have any insight on years with a warm gulf of Guinea?

No, but suffice it to say that Atlantic Niño is a real thing - and there's one happening this year.

Do you think it will pass north of Barbados