ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AveryTheComrade]

Elsa seems to be forming a core and has quite clearly filtered out the dry air, sooner than any models had previously suggested. Chances this becomes a hurricane before it enters the Caribbean?

[Stormybajan]

New cone
https://i.imgur.com/2xUnG6K.png

Forecast now raised to 65 mph when at Barbados..also im noting its slow down a bit from 28mph to 26 mph which has probably allowed this organization to occur

[DestinHurricane]

With all due respect to NHC, this discussion reads like it was written a few hours ago. They reference a microwave pass from 5:30 eastern, before the deep convection built over the center. I guess they don't have any new data to go off of, and they state their forecast is low confidence.

[toad strangler]

New cone
https://i.imgur.com/2xUnG6K.png

Forecast now raised to 65 mph when at Barbados..also im noting its slow down a bit from 28mph to 26 mph which has probably allowed this organization to occur

A forward motion slow down of even just 2 mph at the speed we have been watching would be significant if real.

[Cat5James]

With all due respect to NHC, this discussion reads like it was written a few hours ago. They reference a microwave pass from 5:30 eastern, before the deep convection built over the center. I guess they don't have any new data to go off of, and they state their forecast is low confidence.

NHC seems to have confidence issues as of late.

[eastcoastFL]

With all due respect to NHC, this discussion reads like it was written a few hours ago. They reference a microwave pass from 5:30 eastern, before the deep convection built over the center. I guess they don't have any new data to go off of, and they state their forecast is low confidence.

Probably hanging on tight for recon.

[AveryTheComrade]

(apologies for the 2 posts in a couple minutes) NHC's awfully conservative forecast leaves me questioning what they think is going on, seems pretty clear to me that it's rapidly forming a core and 50-55kt would be justified right now.

[AxaltaRacing24]

With all due respect to NHC, this discussion reads like it was written a few hours ago. They reference a microwave pass from 5:30 eastern, before the deep convection built over the center. I guess they don't have any new data to go off of, and they state their forecast is low confidence.

They kept it at around 60-65 mph and called it a day. Honestly cannot blame them. Nobody knows what is truly going to happen in the next 24-72 hrs.

[Dougiefresh]

With all due respect to NHC, this discussion reads like it was written a few hours ago. They reference a microwave pass from 5:30 eastern, before the deep convection built over the center. I guess they don't have any new data to go off of, and they state their forecast is low confidence.

They kept it at around 60-65 mph and called it a day. Honestly cannot blame them. Nobody knows what is truly going to happen in the next 24-72 hrs.

I'll let you know how the ride is from Barbados in about 12.

[StPeteMike]

With all due respect to NHC, this discussion reads like it was written a few hours ago. They reference a microwave pass from 5:30 eastern, before the deep convection built over the center. I guess they don't have any new data to go off of, and they state their forecast is low confidence.

NHC seems to have confidence issues as of late.

Mainly long term confidence. Anything could happen with land interaction and they don’t want to say 110 mph hurricane in 5 days and we only have a 65 mph tropical storm. Although if this girl is strengthening, they might be off on the short term strength as well.

[AxaltaRacing24]

With all due respect to NHC, this discussion reads like it was written a few hours ago. They reference a microwave pass from 5:30 eastern, before the deep convection built over the center. I guess they don't have any new data to go off of, and they state their forecast is low confidence.

NHC seems to have confidence issues as of late.

Ever since Erika 2015. Which this track is somewhat similar to, just without the super nino.

If I recall, the "key messages" section of the discussion exists because of Erika backlash.

[Stormybajan]

With all due respect to NHC, this discussion reads like it was written a few hours ago. They reference a microwave pass from 5:30 eastern, before the deep convection built over the center. I guess they don't have any new data to go off of, and they state their forecast is low confidence.

They kept it at around 60-65 mph and called it a day. Honestly cannot blame them. Nobody knows what is truly going to happen in the next 24-72 hrs.

Yeah I cant blame them its better to sit on the side of caution than the side of extremity. Recon in 4 hours will give us a true look at this developing storm although I will say it looks better right now than I was expecting given its struggles earlier in the day

[eastcoastFL]

With all due respect to NHC, this discussion reads like it was written a few hours ago. They reference a microwave pass from 5:30 eastern, before the deep convection built over the center. I guess they don't have any new data to go off of, and they state their forecast is low confidence.

NHC seems to have confidence issues as of late.

“ However, the track forecast in the latter time period
remains low confidence.”

It seems like that’s been in every discussion since the Euro broke last year. They don’t seem to know which model to go with so they won’t commit one way or the other past 2 or 3 days.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/i/status/1410799860094210048

[StPeteMike]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1410799860094210048

That’s definitely not a satellite video of a storm weakening or staying at current wind speed.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Convection can be deceiving... hitting warmer waters at 55W always results in a good blowup. Won't matter if the LLC is a mess and misaligned from the MLC.

[Category5Kaiju]

All I am going to say is Elsa is not playing any games right now, at least from when I look at it. Could be wrong though, we'll see and have a better idea tomorrow morning.

[eastcoastFL]

[Nuno]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/tcmovieFinal.gif

Slightly N

[beachnut]

Definitely keeping my eye on this one. Hopefully it stays a TS as (if) it passes by. We're ready, home can take it, but not a significant surge. Dodged the doomsday bullet with Irma. House would've been a complete loss. Glad we got bound with our new insurance company two days ago after getting non-renewed like thousands of others here.