ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#941 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:35 pm

Can't wait until recon gets in there to see if it's actually stacked or not. I would assume it's getting there, and if it is, then Elsa should be on its way to hurricane status.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#942 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:37 pm

NHC has been kicking everything’s ass for the last few years. There are no confidence issues. There is only storm-specific uncertainties. Y’all know better.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#943 Postby toad strangler » Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:41 pm

Steve wrote:NHC has been kicking everything’s ass for the last few years. There are no confidence issues. There is only storm-specific uncertainties. Y’all know better.


Hell Yes
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#944 Postby tiger_deF » Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:43 pm

Steve wrote:NHC has been kicking everything’s ass for the last few years. There are no confidence issues. There is only storm-specific uncertainties. Y’all know better.


The NHC has nothing on my tea leaves forecast. You should know that according to the patterns of debris at the bottom of my teacup, Elsa is going to become the Altantic's very first typhoon!


In all seriousness, the NHC has been on the money when the big models have serious disagreements. No, they will not be 100% perfect 100% of the time, unless they have Doc and Marty bringing recon from the future. They are the world's foremost collection of TC professionals, and the results speak for themselves.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#945 Postby Craters » Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:46 pm

Steve wrote:NHC has been kicking everything’s ass for the last few years. There are no confidence issues. There is only storm-specific uncertainties. Y’all know better.

Thank you, Steve. I couldn't have said that better or more simply in a hundred tries.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#946 Postby Hurricane Mike » Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:51 pm

I'm typically conservative with intensity as well because of so many storms fizzling in the past, but Elsa is impressing me tonight.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#947 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:55 pm

It’s looking pretty right now, probably well on its way to establishing an inner core. If these trends continue I could see this approaching hurricane strength by 11am or 5pm tomorrow
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#948 Postby Hurricane Mike » Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:58 pm

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#949 Postby GeneratorPower » Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:04 pm

Hurricane Mike wrote:New video update on Elsa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcM8kHRGx94

Perfect update Mike. Appreciated by the wife as well.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#950 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:15 pm

dont break the link !

but
Just an FYI the core is starting to come into long range from Barbados..

NHC may want to up the winds a little.....

https://www.barbadosweather.org/RadarPr ... heApes=212
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#951 Postby Hurricane Mike » Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:17 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
Hurricane Mike wrote:New video update on Elsa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcM8kHRGx94

Perfect update Mike. Appreciated by the wife as well.


Thanks so much.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#952 Postby Stormybajan » Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:21 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:dont break the link !

but
Just an FYI the core is starting to come into long range from Barbados..

NHC may want to up the winds a little.....

https://www.barbadosweather.org/RadarPr ... heApes=212


Looks like the beginnings of an eyewall there... welp. Getting a bit breezy here going to bed now to be back here in 4 :30 hours in time for recon :double: I say recon finds winds of 65 mph today if trends continue
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#953 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:22 pm

Looks like it's taken on a CCC:
Image
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#954 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:24 pm

Stormybajan wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:dont break the link !

but
Just an FYI the core is starting to come into long range from Barbados..

NHC may want to up the winds a little.....

https://www.barbadosweather.org/RadarPr ... heApes=212


Looks like the beginnings of an eyewall there... welp. Getting a bit breezy here going to bed now to be back here in 4 :30 hours in time for recon :double: I say recon finds winds of 65 mph today if trends continue


I would say be prepared for hurricane gusts..
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#955 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:24 pm

Wow. Elsa looks a lot different than when I last looked a few hours ago. She looks much more impressive on IR unless the LLC is still not under the convection.
Last edited by captainbarbossa19 on Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#956 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:31 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Looks like it's taken on a CCC:
https://i.imgur.com/n9NzQv6.jpg


Not quite ready to go that far given the blob is still circular despite the lack of bands but given the mid level shear present it wouldn’t surprise me if it fully transitions into a CCC at some point.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#957 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:33 pm

Coming into range of the Barbados radar and uh, this is pretty sus:
Image
Granted I'd like for it to come closer in order to make sure it is what I think it is...
Last edited by DorkyMcDorkface on Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#958 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:37 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Looks like it's taken on a CCC:
https://i.imgur.com/n9NzQv6.jpg


What is CCC?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#959 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:38 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Coming into range of the Barbados radar and uh, this is pretty sus:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/860377047536500756/OsCyFoUjtCEAAAAASUVORK5CYII.png
Granted I'd like for it to come closer in order to make sure it is what I think it is...


Is that...a nascent inner core?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#960 Postby Hurricane Mike » Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:39 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:Wow. Elsa looks a lot different than when I last looked a few hours ago. She is looks much more impressive on IR unless the LLC is still not under the convection.


Yeah. Ever since dinnertime she's been bursting.
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