ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AveryTheComrade]

NHC's fix puts the center a bit west of the coldest inner convection which wouldn't support those higher Dvorak numbers. I guess we gotta wait and see for Recon to find out what's what. Its forward speed is screwing everything up (for the better!) in terms of organization, but it has made significant progress considering how it looked 24 hours ago. I would still put hurricane watches up to be safe.

AMSR2 pass:
https://i.imgur.com/IWq1C0i.png

AMSR2 pass is very impressive there, I'd be more surprised if recon doesn't find a hurricane now

[kevin]

Elsa is looking very healthy right now. I wouldn't be surprised if recon finds a stronger storm than what the models show in the short-term range. I think we should all be grateful that she's moving so fast which it preventing Elsa from strengthening rapidly. Had it not been I think we might've already been looking at a hurricane.

[Shell Mound]

It appears Elsa is on the NHC track or just slightly N of the track as she approaches Barbados. This puts Elsa already on the N edge of the current model suite.

One thing to watch is models’ handling of the trough over the Northeastern U.S. by 48h (day two). The past five runs of the EPS and GEFS suites have trended toward a deeper, more negatively tilted long-wave trough during this timeframe. While Elsa is likely to be stronger in the short term, the trend toward a deeper, more negatively tilted trough also implies less shortwave mid-level ridging between Elsa and the trough axis. In other words, the deep-layer flow has gone from a zonal to a more meridional orientation over the past five runs. This would imply that a deeper Elsa may, in fact, tend to make a sharper turn earlier, given that ridging is no longer expected to be as strong while Elsa nears Hispaniola. So while Elsa is likely to become a hurricane later today and become even stronger over the eastern Caribbean Sea, it is now more likely to turn earlier toward Hispaniola, given the trend toward weaker ridging on the EPS/GEFS. However, a stronger Elsa would also tend to move more slowly, so much depends on how quickly the trough lifts out. The trough is also expected to deposit a cutoff low over the northern Gulf Coast, which could also allow a potent Elsa to lift northward over Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas.

https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1410866696261451776
https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1410869581183340545
https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1410849994828128257

 https://twitter.com/tymetwx/status/1410874288769536002



 https://twitter.com/tornado_fan/status/1410874200466862084



 https://twitter.com/wpbf_sandra/status/1410873045301051393

[Chemmers]

60mph now I think when the recon gets there later there will be a good chance they might find an hurricane

[kevin]

It took a while, but it seems she's really taking off now. Recon will probably be there at the perfect time to sample a strengthening TS or perhaps even a (minimal) hurricane by then. Look at those towers in the last few frames.

[Meteophile]

 https://twitter.com/Meteophile1/status/1410885360297652225

[AveryTheComrade]

NHC still not putting 65 in the cone, guess we're waiting on recon then but I doubt the NHC isn't underestimating it

[Shell Mound]

NHC still not putting 65 in the cone, guess we're waiting on recon then but I doubt the NHC isn't underestimating it

The northeastern quadrant is about to pass over Barbados. Maybe a surface observation from that island will be sufficient for an upgrade pre-aircraft.

[Jr0d]

I am surprised the NHC is conservative on their forecast. Most models show a hurricane by the time Elsa reaches the Greater Antilles....I get the fast motion inhibits development but just look at how much more organized it has become in the past 12 hours.

BY the time recon gets there, it may be very near hurricane strength.

[jlauderdal]

NHC going with persistence which makes sense but based on the recent intensification and the euro eps trending west, Miami to New Orleans is looking at a hurricane next week. The model wars continue but this is a good time to keep it simple and block out the noise and flip-flopping from all the models except the GFS and Euro and watch those trends.

In most cases, the last few years the NHC is far better at 120H than their 5-year avg track error(the cone) and you don't need to look further than what they are forecasting for a solid track to make plans if you are in the strike zone, but this situation has far more potholes with track and intensity.

I know the HWRF gets big love on this board from its flair for the dramatic and it nails it sometimes but just be careful especially with intensity.

[AveryTheComrade]

NHC still not putting 65 in the cone, guess we're waiting on recon then but I doubt the NHC isn't underestimating it

The northeastern quadrant is about to pass over Barbados. Maybe a surface observation from that island will be sufficient for an upgrade pre-aircraft.

Looks to me as though recon will get there at about the same time, either way it'll be between advisories so it'll be reliant on a special being pushed out

[Jr0d]

Looks like an eye is forming on radar.....

I'm very interested in the weather observations from Barbados.

https://www.barbadosweather.org/RadarPr ... heApes=212

[Stormybajan]

Nothing too dramatic here, quite windy though and gusts are most likely tropical storm force and picking up...

[Shell Mound]

NHC still not putting 65 in the cone, guess we're waiting on recon then but I doubt the NHC isn't underestimating it

The northeastern quadrant is about to pass over Barbados. Maybe a surface observation from that island will be sufficient for an upgrade pre-aircraft.

Looks to me as though recon will get there at about the same time, either way it'll be between advisories so it'll be reliant on a special being pushed out

Honestly, I think this may already be a low-end hurricane, given the nascent eye on radar. It is partially closed and I’ve seen far uglier 65-kt systems in the past.

[Jr0d]

NHC still not putting 65 in the cone, guess we're waiting on recon then but I doubt the NHC isn't underestimating it

The northeastern quadrant is about to pass over Barbados. Maybe a surface observation from that island will be sufficient for an upgrade pre-aircraft.

Looks to me as though recon will get there at about the same time, either way it'll be between advisories so it'll be reliant on a special being pushed out

Unfortunately because of the long flight, the Recon mission will only be in the storm for maybe two passes before it needs to head back for fuel...this may prevent it from sampling the strongest part of Elsa.

[Shell Mound]

The northeastern quadrant is about to pass over Barbados. Maybe a surface observation from that island will be sufficient for an upgrade pre-aircraft.

Looks to me as though recon will get there at about the same time, either way it'll be between advisories so it'll be reliant on a special being pushed out

Unfortunately because of the long flight, the Recon mission will only be in the storm for maybe two passes before it needs to head back for fuel...this may prevent it from sampling the strongest part of Elsa.

Why weren’t aircraft stationed at St. Croix for this mission? Considering the threat to land I find the decision to fly from Tampa vs. St. Croix a bit...odd.

Barbados will likely experience a strengthening hurricane and not even watches have been posted yet. I think this situation was handled a bit poorly.

[Stormybajan]

Looks like an eye is forming on radar.....

I'm very interested in the weather observations from Barbados.

https://www.barbadosweather.org/RadarPr ... heApes=212

Well then...its very rare you see an eyewall heading straight for Barbados..

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Looks to me as though recon will get there at about the same time, either way it'll be between advisories so it'll be reliant on a special being pushed out

Unfortunately because of the long flight, the Recon mission will only be in the storm for maybe two passes before it needs to head back for fuel...this may prevent it from sampling the strongest part of Elsa.

Why weren’t aircraft stationed at St. Croix for this mission? Considering the threat to land I find the decision to fly from Tampa vs. St. Croix a bit...odd.

Barbados will likely experience a strengthening hurricane and not even watches have been posted yet. I think this situation was handled a bit poorly.

I'm pretty sure there were concerns that St. Croix would be impacted by TS force winds/heavy rain at the time of the decision. I believe there was a plane moved to Aruba temporarily though, so I'm a little confused on why that one isn't being used.

[Shell Mound]

Looks to me as though recon will get there at about the same time, either way it'll be between advisories so it'll be reliant on a special being pushed out

Unfortunately because of the long flight, the Recon mission will only be in the storm for maybe two passes before it needs to head back for fuel...this may prevent it from sampling the strongest part of Elsa.

Why weren’t aircraft stationed at St. Croix for this mission? Considering the threat to land I find the decision to fly from Tampa vs. St. Croix a bit...odd.

Barbados will likely experience a strengthening hurricane and not even watches have been posted yet. I think this situation was handled a bit poorly.

 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1410892470234320898




The mesoscale vortex inside the formative eye indicates steady deepening. Unfortunately Barbados was not adequately warned of a potential hurricane.

[Stormybajan]

Looks to me as though recon will get there at about the same time, either way it'll be between advisories so it'll be reliant on a special being pushed out

Unfortunately because of the long flight, the Recon mission will only be in the storm for maybe two passes before it needs to head back for fuel...this may prevent it from sampling the strongest part of Elsa.

Why weren’t aircraft stationed at St. Croix for this mission? Considering the threat to land I find the decision to fly from Tampa vs. St. Croix a bit...odd.

Barbados will likely experience a strengthening hurricane and not even watches have been posted yet. I think this situation was handled a bit poorly.

Im also wondering why didnt they use the St.Croix plane... I thought that wouldve been obvious in this situation I guess not? Maybe they plan to use the st croix plane second so the wait between recon passes isnt a long one