ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Shell Mound]

So Barbados is getting a hurricane without any watches/warnings in place. How can the NHC act in the future to ensure that a similar situation does not occur?

[NDG]

Insane!!!!!!! With no Hurricane Warnings!!!

METAR for: TBPB (Bridgetown/Adams Int, 1, BR)
Text: TBPB 021118Z 10055G75KT 0100 +TSRA BKN008CB BKN010 24/20 Q1004 NOSIG
Temperature: 24.0°C ( 75°F)
Dewpoint: 20.0°C ( 68°F) [RH = 78%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.65 inches Hg (1004.0 mb)
Winds: from the E (100 degrees) at 63 MPH (55 knots; 28.3 m/s) gusting to 86 MPH (75 knots; 38.6 m/s)
Visibility: 0.06 sm ( 0.10 km)
Ceiling: 800 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 800 feet AGL, broken clouds at 1000 feet AGL
Weather: +TSRA (heavy rain associated with thunderstorm(s))

[Aric Dunn]

if the airport in barbados is getting winds that high and it is not even in the eyewall.. you can pretty much bet the core has sustained hurricane. possibly 80 to 85 mph sustained.

[Stormybajan]

PEOPLE THIS HAS TO BE A HURRICANE THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND IS GETTING HAMMERED!!!!!! Has to be atleast 95 mph gusts!!!!!

[SFLcane]

Insane!!!!!!! With no Hurricane Warnings!!!

METAR for: TBPB (Bridgetown/Adams Int, 1, BR)
Text: TBPB 021118Z 10055G75KT 0100 +TSRA BKN008CB BKN010 24/20 Q1004 NOSIG
Temperature: 24.0°C ( 75°F)
Dewpoint: 20.0°C ( 68°F) [RH = 78%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.65 inches Hg (1004.0 mb)
Winds: from the E (100 degrees) at 63 MPH (55 knots; 28.3 m/s) gusting to 86 MPH (75 knots; 38.6 m/s)
Visibility: 0.06 sm ( 0.10 km)
Ceiling: 800 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 800 feet AGL, broken clouds at 1000 feet AGL
Weather: +TSRA (heavy rain associated with thunderstorm(s))

Yikes! This is a hurricane folks

[aspen]

I’m thinking this is upgraded to 55-60 kt at the 8am intermediate advisory, based on those ~55 kt sustained winds from the airport and 70-75 kt gusts. If recon confirms as such, we’ll get a hurricane upgrade at 11.

[NDG]

if the airport in barbados is getting winds that high and it is not even in the eyewall.. you can pretty much bet the core has sustained hurricane. possibly 80 to 85 mph sustained.

https://i.ibb.co/3WdMR9D/Capture.png

Newer image now shows part of the eyewall over southern Barbados. You can tell the difference between the LLC and MLC, now fairly close to each other, no wonder for the strengthening this morning.

[AutoPenalti]

Guys, the government of Barbados issues the watches and warnings, the NHC only gives the recommendation to do so.

[Nimbus]

So Elsa has made the latitude jump away from the monsoonal ITCZ and gone through a couple hours of RI at the worst possible time for Barbados. The shear looks like it has let up in the eastern Caribbean as HWRF forecast.

[Shell Mound]

Guys, the government of Barbados issues the watches and warnings, the NHC only gives the recommendation to do so.

Yes, but the NHC never forecast a hurricane near the island. My real “beef” is with the decision to use recon from FL instead of St. Croix or Aruba.

At the very least watches should have been recommended as a precaution. I hope that the NHC at least put forward that recommendation to Barbados.

[Aric Dunn]

Wow look at the rapidly improving eyewall structure... the airport and radar site are right on the edge of the eyewall.

the next surface ob update from the airport should be interesting..

[Ian2401]

recon about to arrive, no doubt they find a hurricane now with that 86mph gust at Barbados airport

[kevin]

Wow looks like the worst case scenario pictured by HWRF is coming true with Elsa reaching hurricane strength while passing the islands. ECMWF busted heavily again with its open wave forecast. No idea why that model has been so poor in recent years considering that it was known as 'the king' for many years. But anyways that's more a discussion for the models topic. I think it's pretty safe to say that this is a 65 - 70 kt minimal hurricane right now based on those measurements. I guess we'll have to wait for recon to get confirmation.

[Ian2401]

anyone have a link to the barbados radar?

[MGC]

No doubt Elsa is approaching hurricane intensity. Barbados is getting hammered. All this talk of tropical cyclones that have trouble intensifying while moving over 20 knots need to refresh themselves with Hurricane Allen of 1980.....MGC

[Shell Mound]

anyone have a link to the barbados radar?

Here it is.

[AlphaToOmega]

*Constantly refreshing this and this*

[Blown Away]

Elsa clipping the S end of Barbados puts her on the N edge of the current model runs.

[AutoPenalti]

Guys, the government of Barbados issues the watches and warnings, the NHC only gives the recommendation to do so.

Yes, but the NHC never forecast a hurricane near the island. My real “beef” is with the decision to use recon from FL instead of St. Croix or Aruba.

At the very least watches should have been recommended as a precaution. I hope that the NHC at least put forward that recommendation to Barbados.

We don’t even know if it was mentioned in their discussion and officials discarded it. I’m not trying to defend the NHC at the current state of the situation but it’s possible that this was discussed well before and it was just not necessary at the time.

The plane may have departed from Lakeland because of mechanical issues or lack of sufficient resources.

[NDG]

Link to webcam on the southern tip of the Island, turn on the sound.

https://www.iwcpinc.com/cameras/freights-road/