ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

Yes, but the NHC never forecast a hurricane near the island. My real “beef” is with the decision to use recon from FL instead of St. Croix or Aruba.

The Hurricane Hunter aircraft are based out of Keesler Air Force Base in Mississippi. They had to fly the aircraft to the islands first to prep for the mission since they're not staged anywhere else. There's a lot of moving parts as part of the overall process. They couldn't predict a rapidly intensifying storm right by the island of Barbados - just bad timing for them and Barbados.

[Chemmers]

At this rate it will be near a cat 2 hurricane, before it even gets it hurricane Status, not sure why nhc didn’t put out special advisory instead off waiting for the hurricane hunters

Hope one on is injured

[AutoPenalti]

Barbados radar indicates they are getting the worse of Elsa. Eye remains offshore.

[AutoPenalti]

There you go 8am update

ELSA NOW A HURRICANE...

[Aric Dunn]

NHC made the upgrade

[AlphaToOmega]

Hurricane confirmed

000
WTNT65 KNHC 021147
TCUAT5

Hurricane Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
745 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE...

Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa's maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph, and the cyclone
is now a hurricane. A special advisory will be issued within the
hour in place of the normal intermediate advisory.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued Hurricane
Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.

The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane
Warning for St. Lucia.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados reported a sustained wind of
74 mph and a gust to 86 mph.

SUMMARY OF 745 AM AST...1145 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 59.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven/Latto/Zelinsky

[HurricaneEnzo]

All the 'should there have been a Hurricane Watch or not' aside the people of Barbados are tropical cyclone savvy. They have to be given where they live. I'm sure the people there were prepared for the situation at hand.

[aspen]

And there’s our July MDR hurricane….oh boy, peak season is gonna be a wild ride.

[Aric Dunn]

and the surface obs used is not even in the eyewall.. it is probably around 85 mph.

recon almost there to confirm.

[Shell Mound]

SUMMARY OF 745 AM AST...1145 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 59.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven/Latto/Zelinsky[/div]

There's our July hurricane in the MDR...it’s official...hyperactive season on the way...

[SFLcane]

Unreal what a bust of epic proportions for the Euro

[StPeteMike]

Wow looks like the worst case scenario pictured by HWRF is coming true with Elsa reaching hurricane strength while passing the islands. ECMWF busted heavily again with its open wave forecast. No idea why that model has been so poor in recent years considering that it was known as 'the king' for many years. But anyways that's more a discussion for the models topic. I think it's pretty safe to say that this is a 65 - 70 kt minimal hurricane right now based on those measurements. I guess we'll have to wait for recon to get confirmation.

Anyone putting their bet on the ECMWF has a losing hand with this one. Besides maybe location of the storm, it has been downright horrible with intensity forecast.

NHC will likely bump Elsa to hurricane strength, although they might stop just short and put it at 70 mph at the next advisory. Even so, they’ll have to update their forecasted strength of Elsa and have a hurricane before running into Cuba.

[ObsessedMiami]

Wonder if someone in the NHC is having to hurriedly redo the 8am graphics package?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hurricane Elsa

5-1-0 and it's only July 2nd

[InfernoFlameCat]

Sustained winds of 74 mph. No wonder they upgraded to Hurricane.

[Aric Dunn]

Given the low shear and that it has slowed down ( not surprised). The chances of RI have increased for the next 48 hours.. it has already made it past all the hurdles.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Given the low shear and that it has slowed down ( not surprised). The chances of RI have increased for the next 48 hours.. it has already made it past all the hurdles.

It has intensified 25knots in the last 24hours. RI phase has begun. Aka Yes.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Looking at the conditions yesterday the Euro solution for this devolving into an open wave never made any sense. I honestly didn't expect it to be a Hurricane at this point (I was betting on mid-range TS) but yeah definitely seemed the Euro was out to lunch.

[Cat5James]

Down to 995 mb... this is exceeding even the bullish models

[InfernoFlameCat]

Nhc is doing a full advisory I believe at 8am