ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Looks like recon is going to do a NE to SW quadrant pass.

[Shell Mound]

Given the low shear and that it has slowed down ( not surprised). The chances of RI have increased for the next 48 hours.. it has already made it past all the hurdles.

Given the small inner core, I think a MH over the east-central Caribbean Sea is looking quite likely. Dennis’ record from 2005 is almost certainly going down.

[aspen]

Nhc is doing a full advisory I believe at 8am

Yep, the 7:45 update says they will be doing a special advisory within an hour in place of the normal intermediate advisory.

[NDG]

Unreal what a bust of epic proportions for the Euro

That's what happens when one only follows one model and don't look at the meteorological environment that surrounds Elsa in which despite its fast forward speed at the surface the mid and upper level winds are in the same direction and tapping moisture from the ITCZ and S.A Is it very unusual to see this time of the year, of course it is but reality is reality and climatology gets thrown out of the window when present conditions are what they are.

[toad strangler]

Elsa strengthens to a early July MDR hurricane while truckin at 28 mph. Huh… crazy

[xironman]

No doubt Elsa is approaching hurricane intensity. Barbados is getting hammered. All this talk of tropical cyclones that have trouble intensifying while moving over 20 knots need to refresh themselves with Hurricane Allen of 1980.....MGC

The thing is the whole column is racing westward. The plane is getting close to 70 kt east winds at 25k feet far away from the storm. The effective shear is then negated.

[tropicwatch]

Unreal what a bust of epic proportions for the Euro

That's what happens when one only follows one model and don't look at the meteorological environment that surrounds Elsa in which despite its fast forward speed at the surface the mid and upper level winds are in the same direction and tapping moisture from the ITCZ and S.A Is it very unusual to see this time of the year, of course it is but reality is reality and climatology gets thrown out of the window when present conditions are what they are.

Sometimes you just have to look out the window.

[kevin]

Not to get ahead of ourselves, but now that Elsa is strengthening faster than even the bullish HWRF/HMON models I think it's useful to a look at the MPI which indicates that the waters are theoretically sufficient for a MH. Not saying that it's gonna happen of course, but just an FYI that at least in terms of sea temperature there don't seem to be any inhibiting factors. Speed is and will remain Elsa's biggest problem.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa has an eye on radar

[HurricaneEnzo]

As others have said the main issue with the fast forward motion is the initial establishing of a decent core. It was obvious it had established one yesterday. You can have fast forward motion and an intensifying storm if it is moving in tandem with the flow and has a core established.

[ElectricStorm]

Not to get ahead of ourselves, but now that Elsa is strengthening faster than even the bullish HWRF/HMON models I think it's useful to a look at the MPI which indicates that the waters are theoretically sufficient for a MH. Not saying that it's gonna happen of course, but just an FYI that at least in terms of sea temperature there don't seem to be any inhibiting factors. Speed is and will remain Elsa's biggest problem.

https://i.imgur.com/MYwKdHi.png

A major is certainly not impossible but it might have to wait until it slows down a bit. Either way no matter what the final intensity is, this storm is insane for July...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1410931814877835266

[MJGarrison]

Sustained winds of 74 mph. No wonder they upgraded to Hurricane.

The forward speed component has to be subtracted out, right, if this is a ground observation? Does that mean that the actual wind speed experienced in Barbados was higher? Or is that not in play for this observation?


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[toad strangler]

Unreal what a bust of epic proportions for the Euro

That's what happens when one only follows one model and don't look at the meteorological environment that surrounds Elsa in which despite its fast forward speed at the surface the mid and upper level winds are in the same direction and tapping moisture from the ITCZ and S.A Is it very unusual to see this time of the year, of course it is but reality is reality and climatology gets thrown out of the window when present conditions are what they are.

Climo does allow for a July storm in these parts so it’s not overly anomalous for the month. That said Climo might tell Elsa that it meant July 22 not THE 2nd lol

[Cat5James]

As others have said the main issue with the fast forward motion is the initial establishing of a core. It was obvious it had established one yesterday. You can have fast forward motion and an intensifying storm if it is moving in tandem with the flow and has a core established.

Absolutely. (See Hurricane Andrew)

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa can’t hold it back anymore.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Sustained winds of 74 mph. No wonder they upgraded to Hurricane.

The forward speed component has to be subtracted out, right, if this is a ground observation? Does that mean that the actual wind speed experienced in Barbados was higher? Or is that not in play for this observation?


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No they don’t subtract that.

[NDG]

An hour later after reporting first hurricane force wind gusts, the airport still reporting wind gusts in the mid 80s mph.

METAR for: TBPB (Bridgetown/Adams Int, 1, BR)
Text: TBPB 021200Z 12056G74KT 0800 +TSRA BKN010CB BKN012 22/19 Q1006 NOSIG
Temperature: 22.0°C ( 72°F)
Dewpoint: 19.0°C ( 66°F) [RH = 83%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.70 inches Hg (1006.0 mb)
Winds: from the ESE (120 degrees) at 64 MPH (56 knots; 28.8 m/s) gusting to 85 MPH (74 knots; 38.1 m/s)
Visibility: 0.50 sm ( 0.80 km)
Ceiling: 1000 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1000 feet AGL, broken clouds at 1200 feet AGL
Weather: +TSRA (heavy rain associated with thunderstorm(s))

[HurricaneEnzo]

Sustained winds of 74 mph. No wonder they upgraded to Hurricane.

The forward speed component has to be subtracted out, right, if this is a ground observation? Does that mean that the actual wind speed experienced in Barbados was higher? Or is that not in play for this observation?


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Nope whatever the winds are determined to be at the surface is what they go with no subtraction.

[AJC3]

Sustained winds of 74 mph. No wonder they upgraded to Hurricane.

The forward speed component has to be subtracted out, right, if this is a ground observation? Does that mean that the actual wind speed experienced in Barbados was higher? Or is that not in play for this observation?

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This question gets asked a lot. Maximum sustained winds (MSW) of a tropical cyclone are ground relative, and irrespective of the forward speed.