ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

11am advisory:

...CENTER OF ELSA PASSING NEAR ST. VINCENT AND ST. LUCIA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

No change in wind speed

Edit: The storm is now projected to intensify to 80 mph in 12 hours, before it weakens back down into a 75 mph hurricane and then a TS

Drop in pressure tho, so she’s strengthening.

[NDG]

NHC forecasting unfavorable conditions in the GoM.

I don't see the unfavorable conditions in the GOM they are talking about, they are really being very conservative still giving the ECMWF the benefict of doubt.

[wx98]

I’m really not seeing a major hurricane out of this at all. Moving too fast and the phantom mid-level shear could strike at any time. I’m I’m wrong I’ll eat my shoe

[AutoPenalti]

NHC forecasting unfavorable conditions in the GoM.

I don't see the unfavorable conditions in the GOM they are talking about, they are really being very conservative still giving the ECMWF the benefict of doubt.


https://i.imgur.com/YJXtpTm.png

It should be noted that they mentioned "less favorable conditions" which gives the idea that conditions won't be as they are at the current state.

[BYG Jacob]

I'd be interested to see what makes the NHC say that conditions will be unfavorable in the gulf.

[abajan]

almost certainly ..

pulse down has begun ... 12 more hours pulse back up.. ( assuming environment remains conducive) eye begins to show up on visible as a wobbling dark spot.

fun fun..

Not for me. Lots of reports of blown off roofs. For a while (especially around 7:45 am), I thought I would lose mine too. Scary as heck, man!

How much warning did y'all have a hurricane would be bowling through?

At 7:50 am. Just about the same time we were already experiencing hurricane force winds.
But c'est la vie.

[tolakram]

NHC forecasting unfavorable conditions in the GoM.

I don't see the unfavorable conditions in the GOM they are talking about, they are really being very conservative still giving the ECMWF the benefict of doubt.


https://i.imgur.com/YJXtpTm.png

Model blend, and Florida super ensembles? I think they are underestimating Elsa as well, but I also think I'm unqualified to give a reasonable estimate. I've been here before, seeing what looks to be a rapidly intensifying hurricane and wondering what they were thinking, only to have the storm fall apart due to lack of a good structure. We'll see.

[BYG Jacob]

Not for me. Lots of reports of blown off roofs. For a while (especially around 7:45 am), I thought I would lose mine too. Scary as heck, man!

How much warning did y'all have a hurricane would be bowling through?

At 7:50 am. Just about the same time we were already experiencing hurricane force winds.
But c'est la vie.

Aye, hopefully, things didn't get too crazy for y'all.

[tolakram]

New burst near the center after passing over northern St Vincent.

https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis/meso1_60.html

source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs ... meso1.html

[SFLcane]

NHC forecasting unfavorable conditions in the GoM.

I don't see the unfavorable conditions in the GOM they are talking about, they are really being very conservative still giving the ECMWF the benefict of doubt.


https://i.imgur.com/YJXtpTm.png

Give it a few more advisory’s that tune will change.

[abajan]

How much warning did y'all have a hurricane would be bowling through?

At 7:50 am. Just about the same time we were already experiencing hurricane force winds.
But c'est la vie.

Aye, hopefully, things didn't get too crazy for y'all.

The winds have abated considerably, compared to the height of the activity. But we're still getting tropical storm force gusts.

[beachnut]

Interesting NE kink in the cone right at our doorstep on the 11am. Still plenty time for the 'larger than usual' forecast uncertainty to play out though.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1410978424936669187

[psyclone]

a storm recurving over florida seems like something that should be on the docket more frequently than it has in recent decades. I've noticed the latter portion of the forecast keeps tilting right...this is the 2nd advisory where the black line tracks east of my casa..

[Sciencerocks]

I believe that this has a shot at low to mid level cat2 during the next 24-36 hours. (85-95 knots)

We'll see

[eastcoastFL]

a storm recurving over florida seems like something that should be on the docket more frequently than it has in recent decades. I've noticed the latter portion of the forecast keeps tilting right...this is the 2nd advisory where the black line tracks east of my casa..

This is a less than optimal scenario. While the west coast will take a the brunt and any surge the “bad side” will rake the entire east coast of the state as well. Ugly set up if it plays out. Also when these things make their turn they slow down quite a bit so it could mean some serious rain for much of the state.

[AlphaToOmega]

If this becomes a major hurricane, its impacts would likely be greater than a major hurricane during the peak or end of hurricane season. Because major hurricanes typically do not form in July, people would likely be less prepared for this one than they would be for a hurricane during the peak or end of hurricane season.

[Kingarabian]

NHC forecasting unfavorable conditions in the GoM.

I don't see the unfavorable conditions in the GOM they are talking about, they are really being very conservative still giving the ECMWF the benefict of doubt.


[url]https://i.imgur.com/YJXtpTm.png[/ul]

Also the UKMET and CMC. CMC is pretty bad for intensity but isn't bad for track though.. However the UKMET being this weak (although stronger than the Euro) is also playing a role in keeping the NHCs intensity for this system, down.

[NDG]

NHC forecasting unfavorable conditions in the GoM.

I don't see the unfavorable conditions in the GOM they are talking about, they are really being very conservative still giving the ECMWF the benefict of doubt.


https://i.imgur.com/YJXtpTm.png

Model blend, and Florida super ensembles? I think they are underestimating Elsa as well, but I also think I'm unqualified to give a reasonable estimate. I've been here before, seeing what looks to be a rapidly intensifying hurricane and wondering what they were thinking, only to have the storm fall apart due to lack of a good structure. We'll see.

I am still thinking the main reason they are being conservative is not knowing how land interaction will be with the G.A. and that the Euro is still not on board with the GFS.

[BYG Jacob]

Elsa developed into a well-stacked cane' among a litany of supposed negative factors in the MDR in July and some of y'all are still gonna doubt this storm?