2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1410612909609304064

Jiminy Crickets .... BUCKLE UP and of course, finish off your storm preps now!

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1410612909609304064

If that verifies, there might be a break in mid July with activity resuming in the later weeks of the month, like the Euro weekly VP anomalies suggested too.

Late July into August could be when the Atlantic kicks into full gear.

[AlphaToOmega]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1410612909609304064

If that verifies, there might be a break in mid July with activity resuming in the later weeks of the month, like the Euro weekly VP anomalies suggested too.

Late July into August could be when the Atlantic kicks into full gear.

If the JMA forecasts verifies, we are not going to see a break in mid-July. All I am seeing is -VP anomalies over Africa and +VP anomalies over the Pacific, which favor more Atlantic tropical activity. This is consistent throughout all of July.

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1410612909609304064

If that verifies, there might be a break in mid July with activity resuming in the later weeks of the month, like the Euro weekly VP anomalies suggested too.

Late July into August could be when the Atlantic kicks into full gear.

If the JMA forecasts verifies, we are not going to see a break in mid-July. All I am seeing is -VP anomalies over Africa and +VP anomalies over the Pacific, which favor more Atlantic tropical activity. This is consistent throughout all of July.

I don't expect us to run through the list again, but it is becoming clear that we are in for yet another active season.

[AlphaToOmega]

A 2020 repeat is now more likely than before. In fact, we might get something more active than 2020.

CanSIPS velocity potential anomaly forecast:


CFSv2 velocity potential anomaly forecast:
L

September 2020 velocity potential anomalies:


September 2017 velocity potential anomalies:


September 2010 velocity potential anomalies:


September 2005 velocity potential anomalies:


CanSIPS sea surface temperature anomaly forecast:


CFSv2 sea surface temperature anomaly forecast:


September 2020 sea surface temperature anomalies:


September 2017 sea surface temperature anomalies:


September 2010 sea surface temperature anomalies:
'

September 2005 sea surface temperature anomalies:
'

Both the CanSIPS and CFSv2 are in agreement about the velocity potential patterns for the peak of hurricane season. They show rising air over Eurasia and sinking air over the Americas and the Pacific Ocean; this was the exact pattern of 2020; 2017, 2010, and 2005 had some form of rising air over the Eastern Pacific Ocean. In terms of sea surface temperatures, both the CanSIPS and CFSv2 suggest La Niña conditions as well as above-average temperatures throughout the North Atlantic. In fact, the forecasted sea surface temperature pattern is more favorable than the one last year. Last year had below-average sea surface temperatures throughout the Eastern Main Development Region throughout peak hurricane season; one model, the CanSIPS, shows neutral PDO conditions, unlike the +PDO conditions of last year, which should also enhance Atlantic activity. Another important thing to note is the forecasted Atlantic Equatorial Mode, which creates rising air over Africa, making conditions even more favorable for tropical development. This was neither in 2020 nor 2005. In short, 2021 is forecasted to have everything that favors a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season and nothing that hinders Atlantic tropical development.

Should either forecast verify, the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season will likely be a repeat of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. With Tropical Storm Elsa (2021) developing days before Tropical Storm Edouard (2020), such a scenario now seems possible. With the fact that negative sea surface temperature anomalies are not expected in the Main Development Region, this hurricane season could easily reach or exceed 30 storms and 180 ACE. It may even rival 2005 in terms of ACE. If such a scenario occurred, it would give people in hurricane-prone areas a taste of what the most active possible hurricane season might be.

[AnnularCane]

I know it's still early, but I'm just starting to think that maaaaayyybe my previous thinking that we wouldn't go off the main name list this time just might not be correct. Well, it seemed to make sense at the time.

[Category5Kaiju]

I really hope people do not cling onto the belief that simply because 2020 was very active means 2021 cannot be as bad. If anything, we are seeing very concerning signs that 2021 may outdo 2020 in several places (ACE being a major possibility). While I am still somewhat skeptical of getting more than 30 named storms, at this point I guess we are simply going to have to wait and see.

[Hammy]

Never seen the Atlantic look like this in July, let alone this early. Really looks like mid to late August in the late 1990s.

[Hurricaneman]

It could be a blend of 2004/2005 hybrid as the early part before August 1st resembles 2005 with strong July MDR activity while after August 1st resembles 2004 with long trackers and CV development but am not quite expecting that kind of insanity but it could end up a 175+ ace year

[AnnularCane]

It could be a blend of 2004/2005 hybrid as the early part before August 1st resembles 2005 with strong July MDR activity while after August 1st resembles 2004 with long trackers and CV development but am not quite expecting that kind of insanity but it could end up a 175+ ace year

That would certainly be quite a hybrid.

[Chris90]

I was just taking a look at SST anomalies and comparing them to some other active years for the current calendar date, and.... oh boy. I think I might have been doubting this year too much with my 16/9/3.

I was looking at years like '04/'05/'10/'17 and last year, and the Atlantic Niño is currently stronger than any of those years for this calendar date. I mentioned in the Elsa thread back when she was just lil 'ole 97L that I was thinking of the 1933 Trinidad hurricane, but I'm wondering if Elsa is a warning shot letting us know that we might be on the verge of watching the closest thing to the 1933 season in the satellite era. If you look at the track map on the wikipedia article for 1933, you can see that it was basically the definitive MDR season, with intense long trackers headed west and generated ACE of 259, it's still the record holder in that regard.

I think this season is going to have a more favorable MDR than last year, and when you look at other active MDR seasons like 1995 and 2017, you get 220+ ACE both times.

I'm not sure this year can top last year's storm total, but honestly, I'd probably give this year a 75% chance of beating last year's ACE. I'm anticipating longer track, intense storms that generate higher ACE totals.

[Shell Mound]

Based on current trends, I think Elsa will reach 65 kt just before encountering 60°W. If so, it would count as a hurricane in the MDR in July: a hyperactive indicator.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Based on current trends, I think Elsa will reach 65 kt just before encountering 60°W. If so, it would count as a hurricane in the MDR in July: a hyperactive indicator.

Yeah. I think we might be in for it this season. The favorability in certain parts of the Atlantic reminds me of the insanity during 2017, but we might get more of a 2020 like storm count to go with it.

[AlphaToOmega]

We thought 2020 was peak +AMO, but the SST anomalies for September 2020 definitely show below-average SSTs for parts of the MDR. 2021 might be peak +AMO.

[Shell Mound]

Based on current trends, I think Elsa will reach 65 kt just before encountering 60°W. If so, it would count as a hurricane in the MDR in July: a hyperactive indicator.

Yeah. I think we might be in for it this season. The favorability in certain parts of the Atlantic reminds me of the insanity during 2017, but we might get more of a 2020 like storm count to go with it.

Unofficially, Elsa is clearly a hurricane now, and the TCR will likely reflect it, so Elsa is almost certainly a solid ‘cane in the MDR, just east of 60°W.

[ElectricStorm]

Based on current trends, I think Elsa will reach 65 kt just before encountering 60°W. If so, it would count as a hurricane in the MDR in July: a hyperactive indicator.

Yeah. I think we might be in for it this season. The favorability in certain parts of the Atlantic reminds me of the insanity during 2017, but we might get more of a 2020 like storm count to go with it.

Unofficially, Elsa is clearly a hurricane now, and the TCR will likely reflect it, so Elsa is almost certainly a solid ‘cane in the MDR, just east of 60°W.

And we're only 2 days into July... Gonna be a long season.

[aspen]

Based on current trends, I think Elsa will reach 65 kt just before encountering 60°W. If so, it would count as a hurricane in the MDR in July: a hyperactive indicator.

Yeah. I think we might be in for it this season. The favorability in certain parts of the Atlantic reminds me of the insanity during 2017, but we might get more of a 2020 like storm count to go with it.

Unofficially, Elsa is clearly a hurricane now, and the TCR will likely reflect it, so Elsa is almost certainly a solid ‘cane in the MDR, just east of 60°W.

Make that officially now.

As I detailed in a previous post, intensity of a July MDR/AEW system doesn’t matter as much compared to the mere presence of one, but still, a MDR hurricane on JULY 2ND is quite a sign for an active season. I won’t rule out another hurricane this month.

[AlphaToOmega]

Directly from the NOAA summary of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

000
ABNT30 KNHC 011201
TWSAT

Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

One tropical storm (Ana) formed in the Atlantic basin in May, and
three tropical storms (Bill, Claudette, and Danny) formed in June.
Claudette and Danny made landfall in the United States as tropical
storms during the month of June. So far, this season has been
considerably more active than average, even compared to the recently
updated 30-year climatology (1991-2020) where a named storm
typically forms about once out of every three years in May and about
once every year in June.

In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity
in the basin so far in 2021 is well above average at more than
twice the climatological value.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the National Hurricane Center website at
www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?s ... &basin=atl

Summary Table

Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
TS Ana 22-24 May 45
TS Bill 14-16 Jun 60
TS Claudette 19-22 Jun 45
TS Danny 28-29 Jun 45
TS Elsa 1 Jul- 40
---------------------------------------------------

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit

It mentions that the average May receives 1/3 of a tropical storm and that the average June receives 1 tropical storm. So far, there have been 1 tropical storm in May and 3 tropical storms in June. 1/3 * 3 = 1, and 1 * 3 = 3. So far, this hurricane season has been three times as active as the average hurricane season based on 1991-2020 climatology. Because the average hurricane season has 14 storms, we could see a season with as many as 42 storms if these trends continued.

[Category5Kaiju]

Directly from the NOAA summary of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

000
ABNT30 KNHC 011201
TWSAT

Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

One tropical storm (Ana) formed in the Atlantic basin in May, and
three tropical storms (Bill, Claudette, and Danny) formed in June.
Claudette and Danny made landfall in the United States as tropical
storms during the month of June. So far, this season has been
considerably more active than average, even compared to the recently
updated 30-year climatology (1991-2020) where a named storm
typically forms about once out of every three years in May and about
once every year in June.

In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity
in the basin so far in 2021 is well above average at more than
twice the climatological value.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the National Hurricane Center website at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/inde ... &basin=atl

Summary Table

Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
TS Ana 22-24 May 45
TS Bill 14-16 Jun 60
TS Claudette 19-22 Jun 45
TS Danny 28-29 Jun 45
TS Elsa 1 Jul- 40
---------------------------------------------------

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit

It mentions that the average May receives 1/3 of a tropical storm and that the average June receives 1 tropical storm. So far, there have been 1 tropical storm in May and 3 tropical storms in June. 1/3 * 3 = 1, and 1 * 3 = 3. So far, this hurricane season has been three times as active as the average hurricane season based on 1991-2020 climatology. Because the average hurricane season has 14 storms, we could see a season with as many as 42 storms if these trends continued.

But I would have to imagine that while yes that would theoretically be the case, I simply cannot fathom how the Atlantic could even beat the most active basin in the world, the WPAC, at its most active (which was 39 NSs in 1964). While the Atlantic can generate many storms as we saw in 2005 and 2020, I think there is a limitation to how many storms can form there as unlike the WPAC the Atlantic is still vulnerable to SAL outbreaks and does not have year round 31 degrees C temperatures that are as widespread as they are in the WPAC as well. More than 40 NSs imho may be stretching the limit of how active the Atlantic can truly get

[captainbarbossa19]

Is it really early July?