ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

No matter what the future holds it's very impressive as of now and has certainly exceeded expectations

[MarioProtVI]

That GFS run is a little wonky. It didn't initialize properly and seems to have thrown out the whole run.

Yeah 12z should be thrown out it keeps it weak the entire run when literally it was the one forecasting a hurricane and now it is one

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1410991508233326592

[kevin]

I think it’s a guarantee Elsa won’t be opening up into a wave unless it has significant interaction with the Greater Antilles. Hurricanes do not open up into waves due to trade winds. The only thing limiting Elsa currently is the fast forward motion. This issue should abate slightly as it approaches the Central Caribbean. I think here is where we will see faster strengthening as long as it avoids land interaction.

Agreed. On the one hand you don't want Elsa to run into land to minimize damage to populated areas, but on the other hand the longer she remains above water the stronger she'll get once she eventually makes landfall somewhere. If she makes landfall on either Jaimaica or Hispaniola I think a cat 1/2 is the most realistic outcome. However, if it tracks perfectly in between Jamaica and Hispaniola who knows what could happen.

[HurricaneEnzo]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1410991508233326592

The top 3 most active seasons (by named storms) on that list. I don't know anything about '26 or '61 but '96 was no slouch either at least in terms of impacts.

EDIT- So 26 and 61 were both extremely active as well. 96 was more along the lines of average but significant impacts for me in ENC with 2 Cat2+ strikes in a matter of a few weeks.

[galaxy401]

Elsa proved to me that fast forward speed alone won't hinder a storm. I was wondering if I was going to wake up to a hurricane but still surprised to see it happen.

[NDG]

Core still looking good on radar.

[BYG Jacob]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1410991508233326592

I would have assumed 2007 would be on that list.

[CyclonicFury]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1410991508233326592

I would have assumed 2007 would be on that list.

2007 was actually a lackluster season aside from Dean and Felix, with a total ACE of only 74. It did not have any hurricanes in July.

[psyclone]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1410991508233326592

The top 3 most active seasons (by named storms) on that list. I don't know anything about '26 or '61 but '96 was no slouch either.

Wasn't '26 the year of the great miami hurricane? the very worst seasons are on that list. Elsa is our canary in the tropical season coalmine...

[kevin]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1410991508233326592

That's quite an infamous list to be a part of. The average statistics of those seasons are 19/11/6.

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1410991508233326592

The top 3 most active seasons (by named storms) on that list. I don't know anything about '26 or '61 but '96 was no slouch either.

Wasn't '26 the year of the great miami hurricane? the very worst seasons are on that list. Elsa is our canary in the tropical season coalmine...

And 1961 featured one of the most active Septembers on record, along with storm such as Carla and Hattie. 1926 also had three MH in the Bahamas and one in LA.

For reference, here are the tracks of all the MH from the six seasons listed. Note the concentration of hits on the Gulf Coast, Yucatán, South FL, Bahamas, and Cuba:

[HurricaneEnzo]

The top 3 most active seasons (by named storms) on that list. I don't know anything about '26 or '61 but '96 was no slouch either.

Wasn't '26 the year of the great miami hurricane? the very worst seasons are on that list. Elsa is our canary in the tropical season coalmine...

And 1961 featured one of the most active Septembers on record, along with storm such as Carla and Hattie. 1926 also had three MH in the Bahamas and one in LA.

Yeah it looks like 96 was the only one of those seasons that wasn't above average. I was young in 96 and had the first 2 hurricane landfalls I can concretely remember (Bertha and Fran) in the span of a few weeks so that skewed my memory. Went back and looked only 13 named storms that year but the rest of that list is scary active with high numbers of storms AND major Hurricanes.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Guess what, this season is outpacing all of those now! This season is going to be insane. This is crazy, absolutely crazy that we are discussing the E storm in early July possibly, perhaps plausibly reaching major hurricane status. Blows my mind.

[Category5Kaiju]

The fact that all of those years that Phil Klotzbach listed were hyperactive is definitely not an encouraging sign for those who want a break from the past 5 active years.

[InfernoFlameCat]

It looks as if the mid level center is trying to make an eye that is quite a bit off from the llc.

[HurricaneEnzo]

The fact that all of those years that Phil Klotzbach listed were hyperactive is definitely not an encouraging sign for those who want a break from the past 5 active years.

Yeah not good. A small dataset but looks like there could be a potential link between very active seasons and early season E Carib Hurricane activity. Curious to see if 2021 will follow suit.

[Iceresistance]

Guess what, this season is outpacing all of those now! This season is going to be insane. This is crazy, absolutely crazy that we are discussing the E storm in early July possibly, perhaps plausibly reaching major hurricane status. Blows my mind.

2020 had Edouard on July 4th . . .

[Hurricane Mike]

12pm Video Update on Hurricane Elsa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bZxHppw2gw

[kevin]

Latest IR loop, she's 'chugging along' nicely.