ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Concerning that 12Z HWRF has it at 963mb/110kts at 60hrs right near Cuba even with the bad initialization

I don't ever trust HWRF intensity forecasts. It's way too high on winds most of the time.

You’re correct, but it’s been pretty good on track and it’s showing it missing every island until Cuba

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa is shrimping again.

[CFLHurricane]

I would hope nobody thinks a hurricane is “cute”. This storm is heading for areas where we all have experience with hurricanes and know there’s nothing cute about them.

It depends if Elsa can gain major status. Major’s definitely aren’t cute, but minor hurricanes can be extended opportunities for rainy day activities for the properly prepared. Let’s not act like Florida isn’t hardened against tropical cyclones.

The greatest hardship I’m expecting based on the current forecast is taking the dog out in between rain bands.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Concerning that 12Z HWRF has it at 963mb/110kts at 60hrs right near Cuba even with the bad initialization

I don't ever trust HWRF intensity forecasts. It's way too high on winds most of the time.

Maybe, but it's done a significantly better job so far than the global models.

Adding on to this, the NHC verification report for 2020 placed the HWRF as #1 for intensity between 36-60 hours.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1410246312100982792

[skyline385]

Concerning that 12Z HWRF has it at 963mb/110kts at 60hrs right near Cuba even with the bad initialization

I don't ever trust HWRF intensity forecasts. It's way too high on winds most of the time.

NHC 2020 model verification - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/p ... n_2020.pdf

Intensity forecasts:
Northern Atlantic:
- The HWRF and COAMPS-TC were the best individual models.

HWRF has improved massively over the last few seasons.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I would hope nobody thinks a hurricane is “cute”. This storm is heading for areas where we all have experience with hurricanes and know there’s nothing cute about them.

It depends if Elsa can gain major status. Major’s definitely aren’t cute, but minor hurricanes can be extended opportunities for rainy day activities for the properly prepared. Let’s not act like Florida isn’t hardened against tropical cyclones.

The greatest hardship I’m expecting based on the current forecast is taking the dog out in between rain bands.

Let’s pray that is the case

[wxman57]

Plane is finding very strong easterly flow at 700mb (10,000ft) north and northwest of Elsa. Those winds don't appear to be part of its circulation (NW of center), as they're blowing away from the center. They also don't appear to be making it to the surface.

[wx98]

Wind shear in the Caribbean is forecasted to be low, and sea surface temperatures are more than enough to support a hurricane. What matters is the path Hurricane Elsa takes. If it goes over Hispaniola, the rough terrain should be enough to tear the storm apart. If it goes over Cuba, the rough terrain should be enough to weaken the storm significantly, but it will likely not dissipate over Cuba. If it dodges the islands, it would have no trouble intensifying into a major hurricane, possibly a Category V.

Don’t throw out Category 5. It won’t be one.

[ColdMiser123]

Dropsonde measured a lowest 150 meter wind average of 92 kt, the typical conversion factor of 83% supports 75 kt at the surface.

70-75 kt is a reasonable current intensity at this point. Disappointing that global models are not correctly resolving what is actually taking place currently, but that's where meteorologists can step in to better shed some light on the situation.

[AlphaToOmega]

Dropsonde measured a lowest 150 meter wind average of 92 kt, the typical conversion factor of 83% supports 75 kt at the surface.

70-75 kt is a reasonable current intensity at this point. Disappointing that global models are not correctly resolving what is actually taking place currently, but that's where meteorologists can step in to better shed some light on the situation.

This thing is intensifying quickly. This is something you do not want to see in July.

[HurricaneEnzo]

One thing I am curious about that the HWRF shows is the storm riding pretty close to the coastline of Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba. It also shows significant strengthening during this time. We have seen in the past the mountainous terrain of these areas can disrupt the inflow of these storms that ride the coast and 'stop them in their tracks'. Not saying it is impossible for something to strengthen in that area just curious to see how it pans out.

[NDG]

I don't ever trust HWRF intensity forecasts. It's way too high on winds most of the time.

Maybe, but it's done a significantly better job so far than the global models.

Adding on to this, the NHC verification report for 2020 placed the HWRF as #1 for intensity between 36-60 hours.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1410246312100982792

GFS and HWRF are definitely the Kings in town.
I still remember how good the ECMWF was in 2008, since then it has been going downhill little by little, some years more than others.

[Aric Dunn]

Concerning that 12Z HWRF has it at 963mb/110kts at 60hrs right near Cuba even with the bad initialization

I don't ever trust HWRF intensity forecasts. It's way too high on winds most of the time.

Maybe an update to your trust in the HWRF ?

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa really is outperforming. We might need to retire the Euro.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Elsa be confusing. Elsa be fast. Elsa want cat 4. Elsa let it go.

Elsa be disappointed.. Elsa be close to following Charley's path of '04. Charley WAS a Cat 4... Elsa... nope-- still may make major but moving so fast that between land interference and its own forward motion, development will be tricky.

[NDG]

Wow, that's a very tight core, tight pressure gradient.

174800 1355N 06224W 6949 03160 0027 +097 +057 072054 056 051 000 00
174830 1354N 06223W 6952 03147 0011 +103 +058 071057 061 053 000 00
174900 1352N 06222W 6930 03166 9981 +116 +058 071055 058 061 016 00
174930 1350N 06221W 6931 03140 9928 +142 +059 074058 060 062 023 00
175000 1349N 06220W 7006 03037 9899 +158 +061 080036 039 060 032 00
175030 1347N 06218W 6930 03121 9900 +144 +063 089032 035 068 020 00
175100 1346N 06217W 6975 03068 9920 +129 +064 129019 024 050 003 03
175130 1344N 06216W 6925 03138 9918 +135 +065 202032 038 060 003 00

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Concerning that 12Z HWRF has it at 963mb/110kts at 60hrs right near Cuba even with the bad initialization

I don't ever trust HWRF intensity forecasts. It's way too high on winds most of the time.

Maybe an update to your trust in the HWRF ?

https://i.ibb.co/qF1TZk3/Capture.png

There's still some truth to the idea that the HWRF is a little too bonkers in intensity. It really overdoes storms that are weak (like disturbances) in the 4-5 day range.

But in situations like Elsa and Laura, it's worth paying attention to.

[kevin]

Second pass 989.9 mbar, 1.7 mbar stronger compared to the last pass.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Hwrf shows a skull near Florida!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Code: Select all

989.9 mb
(~ 29.24 inHg)

68 knots
(~ 78.3 mph)

NOAA plane tends to be a little too low with pressure, so I'd go with 80 mph and 992 mb at 2 PM.