
ATL: ELSA - Models
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Forget the Euro intensity and it's apparent issue with splitting the storm. The 120h plot is what's critical. Both GFS and Euro have the same general location at 120 hours.


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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
tolakram wrote:Forget the Euro intensity and it's apparent issue with splitting the storm. The 120h plot is what's critical. Both GFS and Euro have the same general location at 120 hours.
https://i.imgur.com/9bh9Zjv.png
Yup, the Euro is showing a stronger ridge and a weaker area of Low Pressure in Texas.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Hwrf a pretty big shift west. Euro coming in much further west
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models


Last edited by eastcoastFL on Fri Jul 02, 2021 1:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
12Z Euro


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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

12% chance of a CAT 5. Don't think that's happening but then again, nobody was expecting a Hurricane right now
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
tolakram wrote:12Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/qaLhSxS.gif
So opens up and runs into the ridge in the southern Bahamas and gets pushed through the straights ?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
eastcoastFL wrote:tolakram wrote:12Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/qaLhSxS.gif
So opens up and runs into the ridge in the southern Bahamas and gets pushed through the straights ?
That solution is possible, the mountains of eastern Cuba can open up a storm, and then it gets in the straits and develops again. Still seems too far north and east but the euro is coming around, give it some time.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
jlauderdal wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:tolakram wrote:12Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/qaLhSxS.gif
So opens up and runs into the ridge in the southern Bahamas and gets pushed through the straights ?
That solution is possible, the mountains of eastern Cuba can open up a storm, and then it gets in the straits and develops again. Still seems too far north and east but the euro is coming around, give it some time.
Its funny how no other model gets treated like the Euro. No other model is given time to come around like the Euro

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Interesting to see Hmon and GFS in fairly good agreement.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
18Z early guidance and 12Z GFS ensembles.
I suspect the NHC to nudge west. We'll see if more west shifts are still to come.

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I suspect the NHC to nudge west. We'll see if more west shifts are still to come.


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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Has a lot to overcome we shall see what happens when it goes over some land
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Ivanhater wrote:18Z early guidance and 12Z GFS ensembles.
I suspect the NHC to nudge west. We'll see if more west shifts are still to come.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210702/f4978f0cc6bc3f0857aaff5ffe4f0738.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210702/7c29ceba0e641e491d37b00696d69681.jpg
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Why would they the 18z consensus model is right over there track.
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- captainbarbossa19
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Ivanhater wrote:18Z early guidance and 12Z GFS ensembles.
I suspect the NHC to nudge west. We'll see if more west shifts are still to come.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210702/f4978f0cc6bc3f0857aaff5ffe4f0738.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210702/7c29ceba0e641e491d37b00696d69681.jpg
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Interesting how almost no model now shows Elsa crashing into Hispaniola. Starting to think I was right about the Euro being lazy.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
SFLcane wrote:Ivanhater wrote:18Z early guidance and 12Z GFS ensembles.
I suspect the NHC to nudge west. We'll see if more west shifts are still to come.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210702/f4978f0cc6bc3f0857aaff5ffe4f0738.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210702/7c29ceba0e641e491d37b00696d69681.jpg
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Why would they the 18z consensus model is right over there track.
Right, TVCN has barely budged. There won't be a dramatic shift since the 11am is already ontop
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Nuno wrote:SFLcane wrote:Ivanhater wrote:18Z early guidance and 12Z GFS ensembles.
I suspect the NHC to nudge west. We'll see if more west shifts are still to come.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210702/f4978f0cc6bc3f0857aaff5ffe4f0738.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210702/7c29ceba0e641e491d37b00696d69681.jpg
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Why would they the 18z consensus model is right over there track.
Right, TVCN has barely budged. There won't be a dramatic shift since the 11am is already ontop
Right. Hence why I said nudge. Most of the models shifted west today and don't show a sharp turn over the peninsula of Florida. Now they show a gradual turn north with a stronger ridge.
This of course is all conjecture as things will change. And yes, I am biased hoping this doesn't hit Orlando on vacation

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Michael
Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Be careful. Still to early in the day to draw conclusions. Tomorrow we should have a better idea of how this will play out.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Huge range in the latest 12Z Euro ensembles by days 4-5 with solutions from the South-Central GOM to off the North Carolina coast. 
Loop:
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ece ... latlon=Off

Loop:
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ece ... latlon=Off
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Will be interesting to see Euro once it is force fed this hurricane. Up until the point that it's force-fed a storm of some intensity, the Euro has been useless lately. Must be force fed to act like a real model.
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