ATL: ELSA - Models

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#601 Postby tolakram » Fri Jul 02, 2021 1:24 pm

Forget the Euro intensity and it's apparent issue with splitting the storm. The 120h plot is what's critical. Both GFS and Euro have the same general location at 120 hours.

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#602 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Jul 02, 2021 1:29 pm

tolakram wrote:Forget the Euro intensity and it's apparent issue with splitting the storm. The 120h plot is what's critical. Both GFS and Euro have the same general location at 120 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/9bh9Zjv.png

Yup, the Euro is showing a stronger ridge and a weaker area of Low Pressure in Texas.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#603 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jul 02, 2021 1:31 pm

Hwrf a pretty big shift west. Euro coming in much further west
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#604 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Jul 02, 2021 1:51 pm

Image

Image
Last edited by eastcoastFL on Fri Jul 02, 2021 1:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#605 Postby tolakram » Fri Jul 02, 2021 1:55 pm

12Z Euro
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#606 Postby Keldeo1997 » Fri Jul 02, 2021 1:56 pm

Image

12% chance of a CAT 5. Don't think that's happening but then again, nobody was expecting a Hurricane right now
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#607 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Jul 02, 2021 1:56 pm

tolakram wrote:12Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/qaLhSxS.gif


So opens up and runs into the ridge in the southern Bahamas and gets pushed through the straights ?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#608 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Jul 02, 2021 2:02 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
tolakram wrote:12Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/qaLhSxS.gif


So opens up and runs into the ridge in the southern Bahamas and gets pushed through the straights ?

That solution is possible, the mountains of eastern Cuba can open up a storm, and then it gets in the straits and develops again. Still seems too far north and east but the euro is coming around, give it some time.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#609 Postby Nuno » Fri Jul 02, 2021 2:06 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
tolakram wrote:12Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/qaLhSxS.gif


So opens up and runs into the ridge in the southern Bahamas and gets pushed through the straights ?

That solution is possible, the mountains of eastern Cuba can open up a storm, and then it gets in the straits and develops again. Still seems too far north and east but the euro is coming around, give it some time.


Its funny how no other model gets treated like the Euro. No other model is given time to come around like the Euro :lol:
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#610 Postby sponger » Fri Jul 02, 2021 2:08 pm

Interesting to see Hmon and GFS in fairly good agreement.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#611 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jul 02, 2021 2:15 pm

18Z early guidance and 12Z GFS ensembles.

I suspect the NHC to nudge west. We'll see if more west shifts are still to come.ImageImage

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#612 Postby hurricane2025 » Fri Jul 02, 2021 2:19 pm

Has a lot to overcome we shall see what happens when it goes over some land
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#613 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jul 02, 2021 2:25 pm

Ivanhater wrote:18Z early guidance and 12Z GFS ensembles.

I suspect the NHC to nudge west. We'll see if more west shifts are still to come.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210702/f4978f0cc6bc3f0857aaff5ffe4f0738.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210702/7c29ceba0e641e491d37b00696d69681.jpg

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Why would they the 18z consensus model is right over there track.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#614 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Jul 02, 2021 2:26 pm

Ivanhater wrote:18Z early guidance and 12Z GFS ensembles.

I suspect the NHC to nudge west. We'll see if more west shifts are still to come.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210702/f4978f0cc6bc3f0857aaff5ffe4f0738.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210702/7c29ceba0e641e491d37b00696d69681.jpg

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Interesting how almost no model now shows Elsa crashing into Hispaniola. Starting to think I was right about the Euro being lazy.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#615 Postby Nuno » Fri Jul 02, 2021 2:26 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:18Z early guidance and 12Z GFS ensembles.

I suspect the NHC to nudge west. We'll see if more west shifts are still to come.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210702/f4978f0cc6bc3f0857aaff5ffe4f0738.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210702/7c29ceba0e641e491d37b00696d69681.jpg

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Why would they the 18z consensus model is right over there track.


Right, TVCN has barely budged. There won't be a dramatic shift since the 11am is already ontop
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#616 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jul 02, 2021 2:32 pm

Nuno wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:18Z early guidance and 12Z GFS ensembles.

I suspect the NHC to nudge west. We'll see if more west shifts are still to come.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210702/f4978f0cc6bc3f0857aaff5ffe4f0738.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210702/7c29ceba0e641e491d37b00696d69681.jpg

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Why would they the 18z consensus model is right over there track.


Right, TVCN has barely budged. There won't be a dramatic shift since the 11am is already ontop


Right. Hence why I said nudge. Most of the models shifted west today and don't show a sharp turn over the peninsula of Florida. Now they show a gradual turn north with a stronger ridge.

This of course is all conjecture as things will change. And yes, I am biased hoping this doesn't hit Orlando on vacation :lol:
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#617 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 02, 2021 2:42 pm

CMC ensembles animation from 0-96 hours:

Image
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#618 Postby Steve H. » Fri Jul 02, 2021 2:44 pm

Be careful. Still to early in the day to draw conclusions. Tomorrow we should have a better idea of how this will play out.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#619 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 02, 2021 2:46 pm

Huge range in the latest 12Z Euro ensembles by days 4-5 with solutions from the South-Central GOM to off the North Carolina coast. :double:

Loop:
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ece ... latlon=Off
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models

#620 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Jul 02, 2021 2:48 pm

Will be interesting to see Euro once it is force fed this hurricane. Up until the point that it's force-fed a storm of some intensity, the Euro has been useless lately. Must be force fed to act like a real model.
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