ATL: ELSA - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

Will be interesting to see Euro once it is force fed this hurricane. Up until the point that it's force-fed a storm of some intensity, the Euro has been useless lately. Must be force fed to act like a real model.

and even if it is force fed, it sometimes kills the storm off 2 frames later.

[DestinHurricane]

Will be interesting to see Euro once it is force fed this hurricane. Up until the point that it's force-fed a storm of some intensity, the Euro has been useless lately. Must be force fed to act like a real model.

and even if it is force fed, it sometimes kills the storm off 2 frames later.

lol yeah, Euro really has issues with TCs structure lately. Good for synoptic stuff though.

[toad strangler]

ensembles ensembles ensembles

 http://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1411058168914878477

[OuterBanker]

The most consistent of all models has been the (gulp) Canadian.
It’s change very little over several days now.
I wonder if the crazy cousin is less crazy.

[Ivanhater]

So far, 18Z Nam and Icon are still not impressed.

We will find out if the models that weaken it are right tomorrow.

[JPmia]

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc?&spg=&sid=05L&ddtg=2021070212&scl=1&sec=3

COAMPS model has a very different idea than most other models.

[Blown Away]

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc?&spg=&sid=05L&ddtg=2021070212&scl=1&sec=3

COAMPS model has a very different idea than most other models.

Link doesn’t work for me?

[Cat5James]

18Z ICON has moved the HP ridge Eastward... do they use reliable atmospheric data?

[JPmia]

[toad strangler]

18z GFS already a pinch weaker and a touch N of 12z.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1411079153584115714

[MetroMike]

GFS is already initializing incorrectly as it did in the 12z intensity.

[Ivanhater]

The only model to really strengthen this is the HWRF.

[toad strangler]

GFS is already initializing incorrectly as it did in the 12z intensity.

If this was a big deal you would think the DISCO by the NHC would mention it but no, 12z talked about the GFS but nothing about bad initialization

[Cat5James]

18Z GFS and ICON have shifted the High Pressure east thru 48 hours.

[MetroMike]

GFS is already initializing incorrectly as it did in the 12z intensity.

If this was a big deal you would think the DISCO by the NHC would mention it but no, 12z talked about the GFS but nothing about bad initialization

It wasn't something that changed their forecast intensity in the 5 day outlook though.

[Cat5James]

Looks like the system gets 3 "haircuts" on this GFS run...

[Nimbus]

The only model to really strengthen this is the HWRF.

Thats what the NHC said in the 5 PM outlook.

"However, the HWRF still calls for Elsa to intensify into a
Category 3 hurricane, and like the track forecast the intensity
forecast remains of low confidence due to the spread in the
guidance."

Low confidence for the Gulf forecast.

I'm not sure if the current trough near the gulf coast is going to dig and linger given the current small size of Elsa but that seems to be the current hope for shear late in the forecast.

[toad strangler]

18z GFS at hour 78 exits Cuba as what is probably an open wave

[tolakram]

GFS initialized too weak again. Not sure if it matters or not. If Elsa continues to overperform this may lead to some re-evaluation of recon input, especially if that input is suspect. I don't know if this is the issue or not though, just speculating.