ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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skyline385
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1561 Postby skyline385 » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:00 pm

SFLcane wrote:Looks like Elsa is about to explode…

https://i.postimg.cc/RFp57TY4/ABC43958-74-C3-42-FD-958-D-8338-DDF78708.gif


Explode how?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1562 Postby aspen » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:01 pm

SFLcane wrote:Looks like Elsa is about to explode…

https://i.postimg.cc/RFp57TY4/ABC43958-74-C3-42-FD-958-D-8338-DDF78708.gif

The last frame is almost an hour old. The original “CDO” has continued to warm. It needs more hot towers before it can be considered “about to explode”.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1563 Postby Jr0d » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:02 pm

skyline385 wrote:18Z GFS has Elsa all over the place near Cuba, literally bounces off Jamaica lol


We have seen it countless times where storms 'navigate' around the GA mountains. Obviously the high mountains of Hispaniola and Western Cuba will shred a storm up, I can think of one storm that somehow defied physics and went through the terrain of PR, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba and still managed to be a hurricane when it hit the Florida Keys, Georges...however that was a huge storm which enabled it to survive. A compact circulation like Elsa has no chance of surviving the shredder.

A few nervous people down here in Key West, my self included but most people here are convinced Elsa will be shredded by Cuba and will not lose a significant threat to the Florida Straits.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1564 Postby GCANE » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:05 pm

Feeder band showing signs of strengthening with the deeper convection.
Looks like she'll try and refire later

Image
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1565 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:05 pm

I believe the original core has disintegrated. It is building a new one now.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/m ... &length=15
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1566 Postby tolakram » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:06 pm

Looking very ragged again. Recon will be interesting.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Actually I take that back. The core fakout ahead of the system is nothing, you can see the towers around the actual center well to the east. I think.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1567 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:09 pm

So would a weaker storm than anticipated be pulled more north or will it have more of a westerly component? I've personally been getting mixed signals, so any insight would be greatly appreciated.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1568 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:11 pm

Looks like a typical fast moving Caribbean tumbleweed, its when they slow down near Jamaica that you have to be concerned. Elsa is maintaining with the fast forward motion so 15 knots of shear might not shred her after she slows a little.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1569 Postby StormPyrate » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:15 pm

Does anyone have a source for satellite imagery with the current NHC track as an overlay
Thanks
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1570 Postby AveryTheComrade » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:16 pm

18Z GFS seems to have greatly under-initialised, personally wanna see what the HWRF has to say
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1571 Postby tolakram » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:17 pm

StormPyrate wrote:Does anyone have a source for satellite imagery with the current NHC track as an overlay
Thanks


Go here: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

Click on Elsa and select the various options on that popup page.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1572 Postby tolakram » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:22 pm

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1573 Postby AveryTheComrade » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:23 pm

Am I going crazy or does it look like Elsa is undergoing a center relocation
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1574 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:26 pm

AveryTheComrade wrote:Am I going crazy or does it look like Elsa is undergoing a center relocation

I mentioned that. Yes most certainly is.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1575 Postby StormPyrate » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:26 pm

tolakram wrote:
StormPyrate wrote:Does anyone have a source for satellite imagery with the current NHC track as an overlay
Thanks


Go here: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

Click on Elsa and select the various options on that popup page.

Thank you
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1576 Postby StormPyrate » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:29 pm

Historically speaking how often does a tropical storm find its way just off the coast of Naples and not intensify
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1577 Postby aspen » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:33 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
AveryTheComrade wrote:Am I going crazy or does it look like Elsa is undergoing a center relocation

I mentioned that. Yes most certainly is.

Oh fun, something else to further complicate an already complicated forecast.

If Elsa is indeed undergoing a center reformation, it might be several tenths of a degree of longitude further east, which would buy it more time over water. At least that’s where I think it could be reforming; that’s where most of the blossoming convection that could pull the center is.
Last edited by aspen on Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1578 Postby Sanibel » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:33 pm

StormPyrate wrote:Historically speaking how often does a tropical storm find its way just off the coast of Naples and not intensify



Fay 2008...Keith 1988...Gabrielle 2001...
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1579 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:50 pm

Elsa looks like the she is either moving or re-locating further WSW than last location. Either that or the visible imagery is playing tricks on my eyes. But if you think about it, it makes sense as most of the moisture into the storm is from the South and SSE, kind of like a tug of war.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1580 Postby AveryTheComrade » Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:56 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Elsa looks like the she is either moving or re-locating further WSW than last location. Either that or the visible imagery is playing tricks on my eyes. But if you think about it, it makes sense as most of the moisture into the storm is from the South and SSE, kind of like a tug of war.

Looks to me like it relocated/is relocating several tens of miles due east
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