ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1621 Postby tolakram » Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:24 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Would a reasonably well-developed hurricane like Elsa relocate her center? I always figured weaker or less organized storms did that kind of thing.

(Am I the only one getting ads for Elsa dolls on this site recently?)


I don't think it's relocating, it's just rocketing ahead of the MLC.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1622 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:26 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Would a reasonably well-developed hurricane like Elsa relocate her center? I always figured it was mainly weaker or less organized storms that did that kind of thing.

(And am I the only one getting ads for Elsa dolls on this site these last couple of days?)

I am getting the ads too lol. A tiny core like that so far displaced from the center is likely why it relocated. Also, the storm did in fact relocate so I guess that answers that lol.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1623 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:30 pm

For those saying relocation, it’s not relocating at all, in fact it’s at about 14.5n racing ahead of the convection aka self induced shear
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1624 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:34 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Would a reasonably well-developed hurricane like Elsa relocate her center? I always figured it was mainly weaker or less organized storms that did that kind of thing.

(And am I the only one getting ads for Elsa dolls on this site these last couple of days? :lol: )


I was thinking Elsa not vertically stacked tilted W to E and LLC racing W away from MLC to its E resulting in MLC rebuilding down to the surface...

I’m probably wrong.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1625 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:36 pm

Blown Away wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:Would a reasonably well-developed hurricane like Elsa relocate her center? I always figured it was mainly weaker or less organized storms that did that kind of thing.

(And am I the only one getting ads for Elsa dolls on this site these last couple of days? :lol: )


I was thinking Elsa not vertically stacked tilted W to E and LLC racing W away from MLC to its E resulting in MLC rebuilding down to the surface...

I’m probably wrong.


Recon is not showing any relocation just the low moving too fast to stay stacked
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1626 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:40 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:Would a reasonably well-developed hurricane like Elsa relocate her center? I always figured it was mainly weaker or less organized storms that did that kind of thing.

(And am I the only one getting ads for Elsa dolls on this site these last couple of days? :lol: )


I was thinking Elsa not vertically stacked tilted W to E and LLC racing W away from MLC to its E resulting in MLC rebuilding down to the surface...

I’m probably wrong.


Recon is not showing any relocation just the low moving too fast to stay stacked


Even the bullish HWRF doesn't shoe Elsa slowing down till its west of 70.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1627 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:42 pm

Blown Away wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:Would a reasonably well-developed hurricane like Elsa relocate her center? I always figured it was mainly weaker or less organized storms that did that kind of thing.

(And am I the only one getting ads for Elsa dolls on this site these last couple of days? :lol: )


I was thinking Elsa not vertically stacked tilted W to E and LLC racing W away from MLC to its E resulting in MLC rebuilding down to the surface...

I’m probably wrong.


We could both be wrong but you’re not alone. That is what I’m thinking as well the more I look at it.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1628 Postby skyline385 » Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:44 pm

HWRF doesnt even have the centres stacked until 12Z tomorrow
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1629 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:46 pm

If the center has not relocated, it will very soon. That llc will run itself out of existence.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1630 Postby TallyTracker » Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:49 pm

The hurricane won’t be able to sustain itself in it’s current state. I anticipate some weakening tonight. Beyond that, it’s anyone’s guess.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1631 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:51 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:If the center has not relocated, it will very soon. That llc will run itself out of existence.

Not sure if that's how it works lol.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1632 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:53 pm

TallyTracker wrote:The hurricane won’t be able to sustain itself in it’s current state. I anticipate some weakening tonight. Beyond that, it’s anyone’s guess.


HWRF forecasts it to weaken tonight and start getting stacked and really ramping up tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1633 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:53 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:If the center has not relocated, it will very soon. That llc will run itself out of existence.

Not sure if that's how it works lol.

I never had seen the llc out run the convection without relocation or the storm straight up dying
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1634 Postby sikkar » Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:55 pm

Thank god for this buoy which may take a direct hit.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... m=M&tz=STN
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1635 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:55 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:If the center has not relocated, it will very soon. That llc will run itself out of existence.

Not sure if that's how it works lol.

I never had seen the llc out run the convection without relocation or the storm straight up dying

If the HWRF is correct, it's going through structural changes tonight before it ramps back up in the morning.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1636 Postby GCANE » Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:58 pm

Looks like Recon will tag it significantly west of forecast track
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1637 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:59 pm

Here she comes!

Image
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1638 Postby GCANE » Fri Jul 02, 2021 8:00 pm

GCANE wrote:Looks like Recon will tag it significantly west of forecast track

Wait a minute, they are making a left turn.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1639 Postby abajan » Fri Jul 02, 2021 8:01 pm

Meteorologist Levi Cowan's evening update:
https://youtu.be/Gs3Yz6Cy9aE
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1640 Postby toad strangler » Fri Jul 02, 2021 8:01 pm

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