ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Looks like Recon will tag it significantly west of forecast track

Wait a minute, they are making a left turn.

They sure did.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1411125589541535749

[Michele B]

While I think in the grand scheme of things it would not really be a major issue, I really hope people who are in the danger zones pay attention and take this storm seriously instead of joking around about the name "Elsa" and thinking that this storm is "cute" as a result, I do feel that that could easily lead to a handful on individuals who really land themselves in a perilous spot.

I've not seen or heard anyone making a joke about the name or the storm.

In fact, I was surprised today at the stores where people were filling their carts with bottles of water - and of course - <gasp> TOILET PAPER {again}.

Normally, people don't seem to get going on prepping until the hurricane flags go up.

I really was surprised, and sort of happy, to see so many getting ready early.

[Blown Away]

Looks like Recon will tag it significantly west of forecast track

@14.7N/65.1W has to be where MLC is...

[NDG]

It pressed on the brake pedals as it gets closer to the new convection.

[GCANE]

Looks like a high helicity tower fired off for about an hour and half with some lightening east of the last recon fix.
Good chance it may relocate the LLC.

[AutoPenalti]

LLC is most likely redeveloping quickly underneath the MLC. Pretty much trying to stack.

[eastcoastFL]

[GCANE]

Looks like recon will still tag it west of forecast track.
However, if the center relocates, it may get it back on track.

[eastcoastFL]

Here she comes!

https://i.postimg.cc/yNG0DL40/1907-F1-E0-9199-49-B3-835-B-6216-B3585389.gif

The LLC is towing a Mack truck

[aspen]

I wonder what kind of storm I’ll wake up to tomorrow morning. A recovering hurricane? Decaying slop? Or something like what we’re seeing now?

[drewschmaltz]

I don't know anything other than what I've learned here over the years, but.... dmax and dmin always seems to bring out sentiments on the extreme of what would otherwise be a realistic middle.

[toad strangler]

I wonder what kind of storm I’ll wake up to tomorrow morning. A recovering hurricane? Decaying slop? Or something like what we’re seeing now?

Levi not so enthused although he did bring up the HWRF

[GCANE]

Recon recording minimal flight-level winds (flying at 700mb) once they passed the LLC.

[Stormybajan]

PEOPLE THIS HAS TO BE A HURRICANE THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND IS GETTING HAMMERED!!!!!! Has to be atleast 95 mph gusts!!!!!

14 hours later just got back electricity. Surely was the strongest we've had since Tomas in 2010, whenever a system comes from the south of the island its 100% the most dangerous then. Hurricane Elsa was.A.RIDE! I'm just hoping Haiti and Jamaica are not affected as badly

[GCANE]

New Vortex Message
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 0:55:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14.57N 65.33W

[GCANE]

Core temp = 7C at 700mb

P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,042m (9,980ft)

[Blown Away]

New Vortex Message
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 0:55:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14.57N 65.33W

That has to be it, WV you can see what appears to be a broad circulation.

[eastcoastFL]

[AutoPenalti]

Looks ragged on IR, but it HWRF did showcase this.