ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skyline385]

Elsa went from exposed llc to trying to form an eye rapidly in two hours. Appears I was wrong about relocation. Elsa wow wow wow.

The centers aren't even aligned, where are you seeing an eye forming?

[Steve]

Laughing at them quoting threading the needle. Now if quite and particularly quite nice are never seen again on a message board about weather, id be okay with it.

[AxaltaRacing24]

NHC 11:00 pM discussion:

The latest GFS and UKMET models indicate that Elsa will be
moving into the center of a 300-200-mb synoptic-scale anticyclone,
which would produce enhanced outflow jets to the north and south of
the cyclone, resulting in significant strengthening. If Elsa ends up
'threading-the-needle' between Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba, then
subsequent intensity forecasts may have to be increased similar to
the much stronger HWRF model.

It is going to have a chance to RI if it misses the shredder. All it takes is 24 hours of extreme favorability.

[eastcoastFL]

Not much change in track.

[eastcoastFL]

Date : 03 JUL 2021 Time : 025021 UTC
Lat : 14:58:34 N Lon : 66:12:21 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 990.5mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.2 2.1

Center Temp : -4.6C Cloud Region Temp : -37.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.68 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 13:58:12 N Lon: 65:11:59 W

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 100nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa went from exposed llc to trying to form an eye rapidly in two hours. Appears I was wrong about relocation. Elsa wow wow wow.

The centers aren't even aligned, where are you seeing an eye forming?

Was looking at the two hot towers rotating

[CronkPSU]

NHC 11:00 pM discussion:

The latest GFS and UKMET models indicate that Elsa will be
moving into the center of a 300-200-mb synoptic-scale anticyclone,
which would produce enhanced outflow jets to the north and south of
the cyclone, resulting in significant strengthening. If Elsa ends up
'threading-the-needle' between Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba, then
subsequent intensity forecasts may have to be increased similar to
the much stronger HWRF model.

seems very odd for them to mention that possibility since the cone is well outside of that area (or even missing Cuba completely to the West)

[psyclone]

NHC 11:00 pM discussion:

The latest GFS and UKMET models indicate that Elsa will be
moving into the center of a 300-200-mb synoptic-scale anticyclone,
which would produce enhanced outflow jets to the north and south of
the cyclone, resulting in significant strengthening. If Elsa ends up
'threading-the-needle' between Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba, then
subsequent intensity forecasts may have to be increased similar to
the much stronger HWRF model.

seems very odd for them to mention that possibility since the cone is well outside of that area (or even missing Cuba completely to the West)

they're most certainly referring to avoidance of high mountains in southwest Haiti, Jamaica and eastern Cuba...which the system might manage to do. It's definitely going to cross less mountainous regions of Cuba to the west..

[Category5Kaiju]

What an interesting situation this is overall. Imho Elsa definitely has the best chance at becoming something significant if she passes through the Jamaica Channel and stays just off Cuba's southern coast. In other words, if she mimics the track Dennis took in this region, then beware.

[CronkPSU]

NHC 11:00 pM discussion:

seems very odd for them to mention that possibility since the cone is well outside of that area (or even missing Cuba completely to the West)

they're most certainly referring to avoidance of high mountains in southwest Haiti, Jamaica and eastern Cuba...which the system might manage to do. It's definitely going to cross less mountainous regions of Cuba to the west..

ahhh that makes more sense...we have seen storms make it thru that needle and miss cuba completely and that is what i thought they were referring to, looks like no chance it misses Cuba

[cane5]

I have to say without storm2k and the amazing contributions Hurricane season would be far less predictable. Hard to give thoughts when you see the depth and understanding posters have here measures up to the best of the stock boards I go to.

I am a native of Miami 65 years and there were the famous 3 Hurricanes Donna, Betsy and Cleo all in a row anyone remember those days ?

[Category5Kaiju]

I have to say without storm2k and the amazing contributions Hurricane season would be far less predictable. Hard to give thoughts when you see the depth and understanding posters have here measures up to the best of the stock boards I go to.

I am a native of Miami 65 years and there were the famous 3 Hurricanes Donna, Betsy and Cleo all in a row anyone remember those days ?

Just curious, but what your experience with Andrew or Irma?

[eastcoastFL]

NHC 11:00 pM discussion:

The latest GFS and UKMET models indicate that Elsa will be
moving into the center of a 300-200-mb synoptic-scale anticyclone,
which would produce enhanced outflow jets to the north and south of
the cyclone, resulting in significant strengthening. If Elsa ends up
'threading-the-needle' between Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba, then
subsequent intensity forecasts may have to be increased similar to
the much stronger HWRF model.

seems very odd for them to mention that possibility since the cone is well outside of that area (or even missing Cuba completely to the West)

Cone is well outside of what area? It’s goes over southern Haiti and the DR that’s why they issued Hurricane warnings. That’s also why they were being so conservative with intensity estimates. Seems like they’re having 2nd thoughts now on potential intensity.

[cane5]

Never ever saw anything like Andrew what was so obvious were the rows of homes demolished on one side and across the street non were harmed badly. A dry storm with all that implies with devasting tornadoes unmatched in my opinion.

[eastcoastFL]

I have to say without storm2k and the amazing contributions Hurricane season would be far less predictable. Hard to give thoughts when you see the depth and understanding posters have here measures up to the best of the stock boards I go to.

I am a native of Miami 65 years and there were the famous 3 Hurricanes Donna, Betsy and Cleo all in a row anyone remember those days ?

Those were well before my time but I’ve heard many stories about them. I second that about this forum. It’s been huge for helping me get through hurricane season and make crucial decisions when under the gun.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Storm2k is awesome.

[eastcoastFL]

Never ever saw anything like Andrew what was so obvious were the rows of homes demolished on one side and across the street non were harmed badly. A dry storm with all that implies with devasting tornadoes unmatched in my opinion.

I’ve been here since 2002. My wife was living here for Andrew and she said it was the most horrific thing she’s ever seen. They fled to Ocala when it came. I lived in loxahatchee 2002-2010 and the worst one I witnessed was Wilma. Frances and Jeanne were a close tie for 2nd.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Oh man, I knew that discussion was from Stewart lol. He always does such a great job with a detailed analysis.

[Nuno]

That hot tower continues to expand. Going to be an interesting night of watching.

I have to say without storm2k and the amazing contributions Hurricane season would be far less predictable. Hard to give thoughts when you see the depth and understanding posters have here measures up to the best of the stock boards I go to.

I am a native of Miami 65 years and there were the famous 3 Hurricanes Donna, Betsy and Cleo all in a row anyone remember those days ?

I hear all the stories... I've always wondered how odd it must've been it to experience Betsy coming down from the NE...

[InfernoFlameCat]

Hurricane Elsa looks like a regular hurricane that some giant had a nose bleed on and that’s where the center is lol.