ATL: ELSA - Models
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
HMON clips DR and heads for eastern Cuba. I feel like we learned absolutely nothing today from the models about what’s going to happen in the next 24-48 hours
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
HWRF looks like it will clip southern Hispaniola also
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Stronger at 975mb approaching the southern tip
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
HWRF & HMON coming stronger and NE of 18z... Your right we’ve learned nothing about what will happen in 36+ hours... 
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Blown Away wrote:HWRF & HMON coming stronger and NE of 18z... Your right we’ve learned nothing about what will happen in 36+ hours...
IDK about you, but I have become less confident about what will happen.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Blown Away wrote:HWRF & HMON coming stronger and NE of 18z... Your right we’ve learned nothing about what will happen in 36+ hours...
Right? We have anything from a wave to a decent cat 2 by tomorrow and the track jumps west to east or east to west with every run…
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Blown Away wrote:HWRF & HMON coming stronger and NE of 18z... Your right we’ve learned nothing about what will happen in 36+ hours...
IDK about you, but I have become less confident about what will happen.
Far less confident. My “confidence is lower than usual”.
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
eastcoastFL wrote:Blown Away wrote:HWRF & HMON coming stronger and NE of 18z... Your right we’ve learned nothing about what will happen in 36+ hours...
Right? We have anything from a wave to a decent cat 2 by tomorrow and the track jumps west to east or east to west with every run…
Reminds me of Laura and Isaias last year. Complete headaches in this part of the basin.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
HWRF exits southern tip of Hispaniola and looks better than it did when it hit. It got knocked down a peg and jumped right back up
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Keldeo1997
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:Blown Away wrote:HWRF & HMON coming stronger and NE of 18z... Your right we’ve learned nothing about what will happen in 36+ hours...
Right? We have anything from a wave to a decent cat 2 by tomorrow and the track jumps west to east or east to west with every run…
Reminds me of Laura and Isaias last year. Complete headaches in this part of the basin.
Yes exactly. Then they had to cross the mountains and somehow get better organized doing so..
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Yeah seems like the models are very confused, not entirely sure why though. This is going to be a critical night...
Also, assuming Elsa clips south Haiti, how mountainous exactly is that part of the country? I feel like very minute details of the terrain can matter especially in this kind of scenario.
Also, assuming Elsa clips south Haiti, how mountainous exactly is that part of the country? I feel like very minute details of the terrain can matter especially in this kind of scenario.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
HMON is broken. It enters Cuba and right before it exits the north of the island it bounces back south of the island and swerves west. What In the world
Last edited by eastcoastFL on Sat Jul 03, 2021 12:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Shell Mound
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
eastcoastFL wrote:HWRF exits southern tip of Hispaniola and looks better than it did when it hit. It got knocked down a peg and jumped right back up
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021070300/hwrf_mslp_wind_05L_11.png
That makes sense. The Tiburon Peninsula is relatively flat compared to the central regions of Hispaniola, and the Windward Passage is nearby.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
eastcoastFL wrote:AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Blown Away wrote:HWRF & HMON coming stronger and NE of 18z... Your right we’ve learned nothing about what will happen in 36+ hours...
IDK about you, but I have become less confident about what will happen.
Far less confident. My “confidence is lower than usual”.
Clearly HMON not liking land interaction, but it keeps shifting @.5 degrees N each run once it nears Haiti/Cuba. I bet if that trend continues the HMON will clip SE Cuba and survive in SE Bahamas. The models that show SE Bahamas then OTS are developing.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
Shell Mound wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:HWRF exits southern tip of Hispaniola and looks better than it did when it hit. It got knocked down a peg and jumped right back up
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021070300/hwrf_mslp_wind_05L_11.png
That makes sense. The Tiburon Peninsula is relatively flat compared to the central regions of Hispaniola, and the Windward Passage is nearby.
That does make sense but have a look at the HMON it’s whacked out
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AxaltaRacing24
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
HMON just keeps bouncing into Cuba and then back south of it unless I’m seeing things
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
HMON finally made its way off of Cuba “for now” but leaves the storm behind…this run looks like junk
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Models
HWRF looks like it will take the long way across Cuba
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