ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

If it keeps this heading it may even miss the western peninsula tip of Haiti.

Edit: recon did not find hurricane force winds by SFMR at the surface, one thing to add.

[eastcoastFL]

[hipshot]

Saved zoomed in loop.

https://i.imgur.com/KejTp68.gif

Great shot. I couldn’t find the LLC yet this morning but that’s clear as can be. A little naked swirl for a minute

Looks to be just at the end or maybe just under that convective burst, correct?

[eastcoastFL]

Saved zoomed in loop.

https://i.imgur.com/KejTp68.gif

Great shot. I couldn’t find the LLC yet this morning but that’s clear as can be. A little naked swirl for a minute

Looks to be just at the end or maybe just under that convective burst, correct?

Yup. It’s just out ahead of that until the convection pops and then it’s mostly underneath

[NDG]

Based on the two recon fixes I estimate that Elsa has slowed its forward speed down to 22-25 mph.

[kevin]

If it keeps this heading it may even miss the western peninsula tip of Haiti.

Edit: recon did not find hurricane force winds by SFMR at the surface, one thing to add.

https://i.imgur.com/EoibmrX.png

If both of those passes correctly found the center than it's moving more west than we thought and it could possibly thread the needle.

[Dean4Storms]

Definitely getting impacted by the NW to SE shear with the MLC displaced to its SE. You have to wonder about the downslope off the Hispaniola mountains maybe causing the LLC to take a more westerly turn and rejoining it's MLC for a time. There's some interesting small scale stuff going on here that with its high forward speed could have impacts.

[Weatherboy1]

Of note.
TPC went from td at 5am after inland.
Now back to ts inland (after FL landfall),

We’ve seen it enough where a storm enters S.Fl and slowly strengthens over the swampland and lake O. Not much for inhibiting factors in this state. If Elsa ends up being a slow moving TS the entire state could be in for some serious rain. But less than 2 days out we really have no better idea than 2 days ago…so there’s that.

Based on eastward shift of TVCN consensus, I would expect NHC path to shift a bit eastward at 11. Probably will get downgraded to a TS unless convection keeps refiring strongly and gets over the center again

[GCANE]

Latest recon drop, SW of the LLC, showing completely saturated boundary layer up to 700mb.
Convection can fill in here anytime.

[GeneratorPower]

https://twitter.com/nwstampabay/status/1411314618472009730?s=21

 https://twitter.com/nwstampabay/status/1411314618472009730

[GCANE]

New tower with very heavy rain rate.
Putting on a lightning show.

[toad strangler]

NHC shows a significant slow down before the turn N which is to be expected with direction changes. This as the cyclone crosses Cuba and enters into the SE GOM

[GCANE]

Instead on hindering Elsa, Haiti may in fact help convection development.
Air is completely saturated as seen on visible satellite with the development of cumulus clouds as the land heats up from the sun.
Could see some strong pop-up storms this afternoon which would feed moisture into Elsa's core.

[TallyTracker]

Keep in mind that if Elsa hits the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti, the storm may take a huge hit. The mountains are thousands of feet high. Storm interacting with it even at high speeds have taken huge hits in intensity and organization. Matthew is the most recent one that comes to mind.

A direct hit on Hispaniola or eastern Cuba and I’m unsure if Elsa will survive. If it can stay away from the high mountains some reintensification might be possible south of Cuba. After Cuba is still very much up in the air. Anything from remnants to a hurricane is possible. Big thing that’s becoming more certain is a lot of rain for the Greater Antilles and Florida.

[eastcoastFL]

Keep in mind that if Elsa hits the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti, the storm may take a huge hit. The mountains are thousands of feet high. Storm interacting with it even at high speeds have taken huge hits in intensity and organization. Matthew is the most recent one that comes to mind.

A direct hit on Hispaniola or eastern Cuba and I’m unsure if Elsa will survive. If it can stay away from the high mountains some reintensification might be possible south of Cuba. After Cuba is still very much up in the air. Anything from remnants to a hurricane is possible. Big thing that’s becoming more certain is a lot of rain for the Greater Antilles and Florida.

I don’t see the rainfall potentials on the NHC page anymore. Do you know where I can find that?

[aspen]

1001 mbar this pass. Looks like Elsa is holding steady as a strong to moderate TS, and it has improved with more convection attempting to cover the center. Still looks like garbage and will probably hit Haiti before it can truly recover.

[NDG]

It sped up again, average forward speed between first recon pass and last recon pass is still close to 30 mph

[us89]

Keep in mind that if Elsa hits the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti, the storm may take a huge hit. The mountains are thousands of feet high. Storm interacting with it even at high speeds have taken huge hits in intensity and organization. Matthew is the most recent one that comes to mind.

A direct hit on Hispaniola or eastern Cuba and I’m unsure if Elsa will survive. If it can stay away from the high mountains some reintensification might be possible south of Cuba. After Cuba is still very much up in the air. Anything from remnants to a hurricane is possible. Big thing that’s becoming more certain is a lot of rain for the Greater Antilles and Florida.

I don’t see the rainfall potentials on the NHC page anymore. Do you know where I can find that?

It won’t help you for Cuba, but you can find some US rainfall maps here: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

Over the next week, 4-5 inches of rain looks possible for parts of Florida, though probably an inch of that is from a separate system moving through today.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like she’s right in line with the nhc track so far. One wobble left or right could change a lot down the road

[InfernoFlameCat]

I see new towers firing. Elsa if it misses GA then it will probably regain hurricane status