ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

I remember a storm that got organized before the eastern Caribbean, had a center relocation that helped it avoid land, and then moved into conditions ripe for intensification. Do y'all remember?

Dorian

[Cat5James]

Metro SE Florida not being in the cone makes very little difference. If Elsa rides the eastern edge of the cone and enters up the spine impacts to the metros areas will be the same.

[ElectricStorm]

It's definitely still got some time to regain hurricane status before it hits Haiti. Either way the difference of impacts between a 60kt TS and 65kt hurricane is nothing.

I don't want to get too far ahead here but depending on how much of a hit the core takes from Haiti and Cuba, there looks to be a solid amount of time before it hits FL. Might be able to ramp back up.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Metro SE Florida not being in the cone makes very little difference. If Elsa rides the eastern edge of the cone and enters up the spine impacts to the metros areas will be the same.

if she does that there won’t be much left of her

[Cat5James]

Metro SE Florida not being in the cone makes very little difference. If Elsa rides the eastern edge of the cone and enters up the spine impacts to the metros areas will be the same.

if she does that there won’t be much left of her

Probably… however conditions are favorable once emerging past Cuba and the waters are warm so if there is a circulation still in tact strengthening of some sort will take place

[NDG]

The latest NHC discussion is probably the best they ever had on Elsa. Very detailed on current condtions and possible different forecast solutions.

[cane5]

We have to one look where she turns and see if that high pressure ridge weakens before we can fully hold the cone reliable. As of now Sfl would get the dirty side of the cone and from 2am has actually just slightly tilted to the east.

[OuterBanker]

Interesting, the Euro probability of a tropical storm is much higher from the DelMarVa to Mass than it is for Florida.

[aspen]

This is going to be a very, very close call with Haiti. Even the smallest center wobble could mean the difference between intensification or complete destruction of whatever core is trying to reform.

[InfernoFlameCat]

It’s in central daylight time I believe

[sunnyday]

Looks like Palm Beach and Miami are out of the cone????

[NDG]

Tomorrow will tells us a lot of what to expect out of Elsa here in FL.
If Elsa takes advantage of the conditions when it slows down and stays away from the high terrains of the Tiburon Peninsula and the Sierra Maestra mountains of eastern Cuba it could get stronger than forecasted. As forecasted by the GFS, if stays only 12 hrs over western central Cuba a stronger storm will take shorter to restrengthen once it gets back over waters of the FL Straights.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like Palm Beach and Miami are out of the cone????

Yes but that doesn't mean they won't get any impacts.

[Nimbus]

It's definitely still got some time to regain hurricane status before it hits Haiti. Either way the difference of impacts between a 60kt TS and 65kt hurricane is nothing.

I don't want to get too far ahead here but depending on how much of a hit the core takes from Haiti and Cuba, there looks to be a solid amount of time before it hits FL. Might be able to ramp back up.

NHC said they expected a strengthening trend in the gulf.
Of course the model tracks with the most time over Cuba are further right and make Florida landfall near the Florida straits with just a few hours to intensify over the gulf.
And the more southern model tracks that keep the storm mostly over the water south of Cuba have a long gulf track making landfall up near Apalachicola.
Really difficult forecast with the coastlines running nearly parallel to some of the potential tracks.

[Jr0d]

Looks like Palm Beach and Miami are out of the cone????

Yes but that doesn't mean they won't get any impacts.

So true...that is the downfall of the 'cone' to the lay person, especially a narrow one as a result of the fast speed.

It should noted that the frontal interaction will likely cause the storm to expand...looks like all of Florida will get something(except maybe the western panhandle).

[ElectricStorm]

It's definitely still got some time to regain hurricane status before it hits Haiti. Either way the difference of impacts between a 60kt TS and 65kt hurricane is nothing.

I don't want to get too far ahead here but depending on how much of a hit the core takes from Haiti and Cuba, there looks to be a solid amount of time before it hits FL. Might be able to ramp back up.

NHC said they expected a strengthening trend in the gulf.
Of course the model tracks with the most time over Cuba are further right and make Florida landfall near the Florida straits with just a few hours to intensify over the gulf.
And the more southern model tracks that keep the storm mostly over the water south of Cuba have a long gulf track making landfall up near Apalachicola.
Really difficult forecast with the coastlines running nearly parallel to some of the potential tracks.

Yeah as of right now the NHC forecast has it coming in only 10mph short of a hurricane. If I was in W FL I'd be preparing for a Cat 1 hurricane. What happened in Barbados yesterday is the perfect example of why people need to prepare for a category higher than the forecast.

Of course this could just as easily get shredded by the mountains of Haiti and Cuba, but if I was in FL I'd rather be over prepared than under.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like Palm Beach and Miami are out of the cone????

In case anyone forgot, we dont get landfalling systems in SE FLorida, full deflector shields were activated a few years ago. Seriousely, we have been real lucky missing some very intense systems the last 5 years including Dorian, there were others.

[cane5]

I still think we have to see where it makes that turn. Anyone know data on the high pressure ridge could it weaken in the next 60 hours if so it what head more due east. That would bring the dirty side closer to SFLa. Coming off almost Africa in early july gives little historical data about behavior trends.

[DestinHurricane]

We will see if it can "dance around" the sw tip of hati. If it can do that, and it misses eastern cuba, it has a chance.

[skillz305]

My opinion: Elsa slams into Haiti and Cuba which shreds Elsa apart. It exits Cuba and goes into SW/C Florida as nothing but a nice tropical downpour and some gusty winds and everyone says: “ah, we dodged another one”. Reality: who knows.