ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Ernesto was one of the biggest duds (at least locally here in SE FL) that I can remember. We get worse weather from a typical summertime thunderstorm than we got from Ernesto.

I don’t even remember it. Must’ve been uneventful.

I remember it. It was a huge deal in 2006. 2004 and 2005 had us pretty shell shocked and the NHC had a major hurricane in the Gulf from Ernesto, only for it to wash ashore as a 35 knot tropical storm.

My wife was pregnant with our first child and I was working 24/7 in 2006. I probably didn’t even know it was coming. It was sleep work maybe eat and work that year. Wilma was 2005 wasn’t it? That’s the worst one I can remember, at least that I’ve ever experienced.

[Category5Kaiju]

Being from Phoenix, the worst cyclone I experienced was Hurricane Norbert back in 2014. While it was not a bona fide hurricane by the time its remnants made it to the desert SW, it caused a massive flood, and the suburbs where I lived were literally clogged with water everywhere. My house even flooded. Just shows you how much water these phenomena of nature can unleash.

[jlauderdal]

I don’t even remember it. Must’ve been uneventful.

I remember it. It was a huge deal in 2006. 2004 and 2005 had us pretty shell shocked and the NHC had a major hurricane in the Gulf from Ernesto, only for it to wash ashore as a 35 knot tropical storm.

My wife was pregnant with our first child and I was working 24/7 in 2006. I probably didn’t even know it was coming. It was sleep work maybe eat and work that year. Wilma was 2005 wasn’t it? That’s the worst one I can remember, at least that I’ve ever experienced.

Wilma was 2005, changed the way sofla deals with canes, changed the way we deal with them in my house, i bought a generator and a floor air conditioner

[GCANE]

Aaaand here ya'go

Multiple hot towers overshooting the cirrus.

[Nuno]

I remember it. It was a huge deal in 2006. 2004 and 2005 had us pretty shell shocked and the NHC had a major hurricane in the Gulf from Ernesto, only for it to wash ashore as a 35 knot tropical storm.

My wife was pregnant with our first child and I was working 24/7 in 2006. I probably didn’t even know it was coming. It was sleep work maybe eat and work that year. Wilma was 2005 wasn’t it? That’s the worst one I can remember, at least that I’ve ever experienced.

Wilma was 2005, changed the way sofla deals with canes, changed the way we deal with them in my house, i bought a generator and a floor air conditioner

What worries me even with an Elsa type storm is how many people have moved to South and Central Florida since Wilma that have zero experience with storms.

[NDG]

The biggest difference between Elsa and Ernesto '06 is that Ernesto was decoupled by the high mountains of the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti even before tracking across eastern Cuba.
Elsa is missing Haitian Peninsula and the highest portions of the Sierra Maestra mountains of eastern Cuba.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa appears to have re-established a CDO.[imgur]https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-truecolor-200-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined[/imgur]

[eastcoastFL]

[eastcoastFL]

Elsa appears to have re-established a CDO.https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-truecolor-200-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Link appears broken

[InfernoFlameCat]

Wxman57, I think I agree with you that this will weaken after impacting cuba enough that it may make landfall ernesto style.

[eastcoastFL]

Aaaand here ya'go

Multiple hot towers overshooting the cirrus.

https://i.imgur.com/5AIlPMw.png

How’s the CAPE looking off of Cuba ?

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa appears to have re-established a CDO.https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-truecolor-200-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Link appears broken

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[InfernoFlameCat]

Aaaand here ya'go

Multiple hot towers overshooting the cirrus.

https://i.imgur.com/5AIlPMw.png

how do u post pictures

[Nimbus]

Not feeling the Ernesto analogs. Ernesto has much more shear than Elsa is dealing with and if Elsa slides S of SE Cuba it will not have the land interaction Ernesto had.

The angle of attack is much shallower with Elsa, but as forward speed reduces she will probably climb north of Jamaica. Cuban forecasters are going to have their hands full if she reintensifies to a 980 hurricane.

[eastcoastFL]

I remember it. It was a huge deal in 2006. 2004 and 2005 had us pretty shell shocked and the NHC had a major hurricane in the Gulf from Ernesto, only for it to wash ashore as a 35 knot tropical storm.

My wife was pregnant with our first child and I was working 24/7 in 2006. I probably didn’t even know it was coming. It was sleep work maybe eat and work that year. Wilma was 2005 wasn’t it? That’s the worst one I can remember, at least that I’ve ever experienced.

Wilma was 2005, changed the way sofla deals with canes, changed the way we deal with them in my house, i bought a generator and a floor air conditioner

I bought the exact same stuff. Got a new genny last year when Isaias popped up just because it was time for a new one and I didn’t want any surprises.

[wxman57]

Center nearly fully exposed again. VERY interesting winds WSW of the main center. Winds out of the ENE southwest of Ella's center and it looks like recon found another weak center. Less than 24 hours before Elsa's center moves over Cuba, where it may spend 24 hours inland (and weakening. I still doubt it will have TS winds as it emerges off the coast of Cuba on Monday, but there could be some 35kt winds in the FL Straits to its north and northeast. Good gradient there. I'm predicting about 45 kts at landfall Tuesday afternoon. Could be weaker, as models are indicating.

I appreciate wxman57's analysis, even though he can be bearish sometimes. It's definitely a philosophy that generates respect. There's a very select few times where I've seen wxman57 be bullish on a storm. Pretty sure he was with Irma and Dorian if memory serves. The entire board knows that when wxman57 is bullish, you need to take the storm seriously. He probably has the lowest false alarm rate of anyone on here due to his conservative nature. He's not infallible, and no one is in this sphere, but I deeply respect his forecast philosophy. I enjoy the wealth of knowledge of the board and contrasting opinions of knowledgeable people with different levels of aggressiveness in forecasting.

When I finish my met degree at FSU, I hope to develop a philosophy as consistent as wxman57's. He doesn't change his forecasting process due to peer pressure, that's admirable for anyone.

Thanks, typhoonty. I'll let y'all know when I have a real concern, like the week before the big freeze this past February. I may be the Heat Miser, but I know a cold pattern when I see one. Look me up when you finish up your degree. We may have an opening on the tropical team, if you'd like to forecast TCs. I've been forecasting TCs around the world since 1980, my 42nd year. I used to be like many on the board here, anxious for something big to develop. Now, I would like to have a season with zero storms at all. Would be fine with me. I've dealt with those who have been severely impacted by TCs for decades. Here's hoping that Elsa is the last storm of the season...

By the way, I was joking about Elsa opening up into a wave. Thought I might rattle a few cages. It is an interesting wind field, though.

[Category5Kaiju]

Not sure right now, but given the perceived trajectory of Elsa on satellite I wonder if it is possible that she does a Dennis-style track and actually spend a bit of time off the southern Cuban coast

[eastcoastFL]

Elsa appears to have re-established a CDO.https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-truecolor-200-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Link appears broken

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

Thanks. This site won’t let you copy images so you’d probably have to screen shot it and upload to Imgur. Too much work.

She’s staying plenty south of Haiti

[InfernoFlameCat]

Nhc goes with 1000mb. interesting

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like she's going to thread the needle between eastern Cuber and Jamaica, with the higher SST's and content along with the slowing as she begins to reach the SW edge of the ridge you would think she'd organize some tonight and deepen. See no reason why not anyway.