ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like Elsa is going to miss Haiti by 35 miles.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looks like she's going to thread the needle between eastern Cuber and Jamaica, with the higher SST's and content along with the slowing as she begins to reach the SW edge of the ridge you would think she'd organize some tonight and deepen. See no reason why not anyway.

Land proximity

[jlauderdal]

My wife was pregnant with our first child and I was working 24/7 in 2006. I probably didn’t even know it was coming. It was sleep work maybe eat and work that year. Wilma was 2005 wasn’t it? That’s the worst one I can remember, at least that I’ve ever experienced.

Wilma was 2005, changed the way sofla deals with canes, changed the way we deal with them in my house, i bought a generator and a floor air conditioner

I bought the exact same stuff. Got a new genny last year when Isaias popped up just because it was time for a new one and I didn’t want any surprises.

I made my purchases during the tax free holiday, it was a solid investment, reduces anxiety level big time

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/AlexAlecciWESH/status/1411427868026998786




This is a forecast track that you do not want to see. Now because Elsa dodged Haiti, she has much more time over water before hitting the narrow part of Cuba.

[GCANE]

Aaaand here ya'go

Multiple hot towers overshooting the cirrus.

https://i.imgur.com/5AIlPMw.png

How’s the CAPE looking off of Cuba ?

3500, right over that hot water pool.
Enough to ramp any TC that tracks over it.
Not to mention the LL convergence that is created by land friction.

[Dean4Storms]

Anyone notice, convection is trying to get going west and even SSW of the center, hadn't seen that in a while.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like Elsa is going to miss Haiti by 35 miles.

Elsa will need to continue south of track by ~15 miles to avoid missing the eastern tip of Cuba entirely. This seems entirely possible.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like she's going to thread the needle between eastern Cuber and Jamaica, with the higher SST's and content along with the slowing as she begins to reach the SW edge of the ridge you would think she'd organize some tonight and deepen. See no reason why not anyway.

Land proximity

That's not going to be an issue tonight, so long as her core stays over those warm SST's as it appears will happen.

[Category6]

5 pm out. Looks like the cone was nudged slightly westward and is slightly slower.

TS watch up for the Keys.

[AlphaToOmega]

The pressure is dropping; the storm is slowing down; there is a high amount of upper ocean heat content in the Northern Caribbean Sea. A second round of rapid intensification of Elsa is within the realm of possibility.

[NDG]

Latest forecast track, 3 day. Forecasted to avoid a direct hit over the Sierra Mountains of eastern Cuba.

[underthwx]

Center nearly fully exposed again. VERY interesting winds WSW of the main center. Winds out of the ENE southwest of Ella's center and it looks like recon found another weak center. Less than 24 hours before Elsa's center moves over Cuba, where it may spend 24 hours inland (and weakening. I still doubt it will have TS winds as it emerges off the coast of Cuba on Monday, but there could be some 35kt winds in the FL Straits to its north and northeast. Good gradient there. I'm predicting about 45 kts at landfall Tuesday afternoon. Could be weaker, as models are indicating.

I appreciate wxman57's analysis, even though he can be bearish sometimes. It's definitely a philosophy that generates respect. There's a very select few times where I've seen wxman57 be bullish on a storm. Pretty sure he was with Irma and Dorian if memory serves. The entire board knows that when wxman57 is bullish, you need to take the storm seriously. He probably has the lowest false alarm rate of anyone on here due to his conservative nature. He's not infallible, and no one is in this sphere, but I deeply respect his forecast philosophy. I enjoy the wealth of knowledge of the board and contrasting opinions of knowledgeable people with different levels of aggressiveness in forecasting.

When I finish my met degree at FSU, I hope to develop a philosophy as consistent as wxman57's. He doesn't change his forecasting process due to peer pressure, that's admirable for anyone.

Thanks, typhoonty. I'll let y'all know when I have a real concern, like the week before the big freeze this past February. I may be the Heat Miser, but I know a cold pattern when I see one. Look me up when you finish up your degree. We may have an opening on the tropical team, if you'd like to forecast TCs. I've been forecasting TCs around the world since 1980, my 42nd year. I used to be like many on the board here, anxious for something big to develop. Now, I would like to have a season with zero storms at all. Would be fine with me. I've dealt with those who have been severely impacted by TCs for decades. Here's hoping that Elsa is the last storm of the season...

By the way, I was joking about Elsa opening up into a wave. Thought I might rattle a few cages. It is an interesting wind field, though.

I feel you Wxman57...and thankyou for taking time out of your professional and personal life to offer your expertise to 2K...

[aspen]

Latest forecast track, 3 day. Forecasted to avoid a direct hit over the Sierra Mountains of eastern Cuba.

https://i.imgur.com/NuwlKix.png

If Elsa continues to stay a little south of the forecast track, it will miss the heel of Cuba and remain over open waters until early Monday — more than a full day to recover and intensify, although the NHC notes there will still be shear. The difference compared to now is that Elsa will be going at normal speed for a TC in this region.

[GCANE]

Yup, tower is smack on top of the LLC.
ADT is taking a turn up.

[Category6]

I don’t even remember it. Must’ve been uneventful.

I remember it. It was a huge deal in 2006. 2004 and 2005 had us pretty shell shocked and the NHC had a major hurricane in the Gulf from Ernesto, only for it to wash ashore as a 35 knot tropical storm.

My wife was pregnant with our first child and I was working 24/7 in 2006. I probably didn’t even know it was coming. It was sleep work maybe eat and work that year. Wilma was 2005 wasn’t it? That’s the worst one I can remember, at least that I’ve ever experienced.

Yes, 2005 I believe. That was probably the last significant strike we've had.

[GCANE]

She is starting to go.
Seeing some LL inflow pretty far S and SW of the LLC.
Not bad for this time of day.

[Category6]

The pressure is dropping; the storm is slowing down; there is a high amount of upper ocean heat content in the Northern Caribbean Sea. A second round of rapid intensification of Elsa is within the realm of possibility.

Not sure about RI at this point but if it can avoid land interaction and slow down a bit we could see it get back to Cat 1 strength.

[tolakram]

I'm a little surprised the GFS and HWRF maybe just now realized there was a cold front to deal with north of Cuba? I think that's where the poor upper air conditions will be coming from.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[InfernoFlameCat]

I’m going to college this fall for meteorology, specifically tropical weather. Hopefully after that I will have a better understanding when a storm will RI. Right now I think every storm is going to RI lol

[StPeteMike]

Last time I checked, the waters where Elsa will be going over just north of Jamaica were 86F. She could easily get up to minimal Cat 2 before hitting Cuba.