2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Shell Mound]

Is it really early July?

https://i.imgur.com/V05cmTn.jpg

On the other hand, does Elsa’s compact size while intensifying over the Windwards suggest that it is less representative of background conditions than a larger TC?

In other words, does the fact that Elsa was a relatively small system suggest that it says less about overall conditions in 2021 than a larger system might have...?

[tolakram]

Is it really early July?

https://i.imgur.com/V05cmTn.jpg

On the other hand, does Elsa’s compact size while intensifying over the Windwards suggest that it is less representative of background conditions than a larger TC?

In other words, does the fact that Elsa was a relatively small system suggest that it says less about overall conditions in 2021 than a larger system might have...?

So now the size of the storm matters? I think the fact that it formed at all indicates a better than average background state, the fact a wave was there to begin with, and the fact it wasn't ripped apart like 95L was, are the indicators. Without 95 Elsa would probably not have existed. You have average SST's, better than average upper wind conditions for the area, and numerous waves. You can read into that whatever you want, but the more golf balls you throw at the hole the better a chance of one going in. <- deep scientific analysis

[Hammy]

Is it really early July?

https://i.imgur.com/V05cmTn.jpg

On the other hand, does Elsa’s compact size while intensifying over the Windwards suggest that it is less representative of background conditions than a larger TC?

In other words, does the fact that Elsa was a relatively small system suggest that it says less about overall conditions in 2021 than a larger system might have...?

July storms aren't typically that large in the first place as pressures in that part of the Atlantic in early July are generally higher than in August and September. Even Emily in 2005 (the most active July on record, and the strongest July hurricane on record) was small through most of it's life prior to crossing the Yucatan and spreading out. Both Berthas in 1996 and 2008 were also fairly small once they organized.

[captainbarbossa19]

Is it really early July?

https://i.imgur.com/V05cmTn.jpg

On the other hand, does Elsa’s compact size while intensifying over the Windwards suggest that it is less representative of background conditions than a larger TC?

In other words, does the fact that Elsa was a relatively small system suggest that it says less about overall conditions in 2021 than a larger system might have...?

So now the size of the storm matters? I think the fact that it formed at all indicates a better than average background state, the fact a wave was there to begin with, and the fact it wasn't ripped apart like 95L was, are the indicators. Without 95 Elsa would probably not have existed. You have average SST's, better than average upper wind conditions for the area, and numerous waves. You can read into that whatever you want, but the more golf balls you throw at the hole the better a chance of one going in. <- deep scientific analysis

Right. In a normal season, Elsa should not even exist where it does right now. The fact that she did form this early in that region does not bode well historically. I really cannot think of a year where a storm formed in that region in early July and did not end up being above average or hyperactive.

[aspen]

The Atlantic is pretty far ahead of the norm in terms of ACE. According to CSU, the North Atlantic basin has had a total of 6.8 ACE, exactly 4x the average for July 3rd (1.7 ACE). We’re also ahead in terms of named storms and hurricanes. By the time Elsa finishes up, the basin should be at least 7.5-8.0 ACE.

[AlphaToOmega]

The Atlantic is pretty far ahead of the norm in terms of ACE. According to CSU, the North Atlantic basin has had a total of 6.8 ACE, exactly 4x the average for July 3rd (1.7 ACE). We’re also ahead in terms of named storms and hurricanes. By the time Elsa finishes up, the basin should be at least 7.5-8.0 ACE.

The average ACE for an Atlantic hurricane season is 127
4*127 = 508
It is practically impossible to get a season with that ACE, but it is an ominous sign that such a scenario is what would happen if the current rate of activity continued.

[aspen]

The Atlantic is pretty far ahead of the norm in terms of ACE. According to CSU, the North Atlantic basin has had a total of 6.8 ACE, exactly 4x the average for July 3rd (1.7 ACE). We’re also ahead in terms of named storms and hurricanes. By the time Elsa finishes up, the basin should be at least 7.5-8.0 ACE.

The average ACE for an Atlantic hurricane season is 127
4*127 = 508
It is practically impossible to get a season with that ACE, but it is an ominous sign that such a scenario is what would happen if the current rate of activity continued.

ACE rates are never constant in a season. There was actually a point in August or September where 2020 was around average ACE for the time and behind other active years…and then came October-November.

We’re also way ahead of 2017 in terms of ACE and hurricanes, but I personally doubt we’ll see anything close to its 226 ACE total and three 40+ ACE, 135+ kt long-tracking MDR hurricanes. Every season is different, and no two have the same progression of ACE relative to average, and it is possible 2021 falls behind at some time.

[toad strangler]

The Atlantic is pretty far ahead of the norm in terms of ACE. According to CSU, the North Atlantic basin has had a total of 6.8 ACE, exactly 4x the average for July 3rd (1.7 ACE). We’re also ahead in terms of named storms and hurricanes. By the time Elsa finishes up, the basin should be at least 7.5-8.0 ACE.

The average ACE for an Atlantic hurricane season is 127
4*127 = 508
It is practically impossible to get a season with that ACE, but it is an ominous sign that such a scenario is what would happen if the current rate of activity continued.

ACE rates are never constant in a season. There was actually a point in August or September where 2020 was around average ACE for the time and behind other active years…and then came October-November.

We’re also way ahead of 2017 in terms of ACE and hurricanes, but I personally doubt we’ll see anything close to its 226 ACE total and three 40+ ACE, 135+ kt long-tracking MDR hurricanes. Every season is different, and no two have the same progression of ACE relative to average, and it is possible 2021 falls behind at some time.

ACE means almost nothing to me except a cool talking point when discussing individual storms. That's just me. I care about storms that can threaten land only and I'm unapologetic about that. I'm out doing something else when a storm is chugging along out in the open ocean with no obvious threat to land.

[Hammy]

The average ACE for an Atlantic hurricane season is 127
4*127 = 508
It is practically impossible to get a season with that ACE, but it is an ominous sign that such a scenario is what would happen if the current rate of activity continued.

ACE rates are never constant in a season. There was actually a point in August or September where 2020 was around average ACE for the time and behind other active years…and then came October-November.

We’re also way ahead of 2017 in terms of ACE and hurricanes, but I personally doubt we’ll see anything close to its 226 ACE total and three 40+ ACE, 135+ kt long-tracking MDR hurricanes. Every season is different, and no two have the same progression of ACE relative to average, and it is possible 2021 falls behind at some time.

ACE means almost nothing to me except a cool talking point when discussing individual storms. That's just me. I care about storms that can threaten land only and I'm unapologetic about that. I'm out doing something else when a storm is chugging along out in the open ocean with no obvious threat to land.

It's a good measure of overall atmospheric favorability, a metric that is more meaningful than land impacts when looking at how productive a season actually is. Though I do think it can put too much weight on how long a storm lasts rather than how strong it gets.

[toad strangler]

ACE rates are never constant in a season. There was actually a point in August or September where 2020 was around average ACE for the time and behind other active years…and then came October-November.

We’re also way ahead of 2017 in terms of ACE and hurricanes, but I personally doubt we’ll see anything close to its 226 ACE total and three 40+ ACE, 135+ kt long-tracking MDR hurricanes. Every season is different, and no two have the same progression of ACE relative to average, and it is possible 2021 falls behind at some time.

ACE means almost nothing to me except a cool talking point when discussing individual storms. That's just me. I care about storms that can threaten land only and I'm unapologetic about that. I'm out doing something else when a storm is chugging along out in the open ocean with no obvious threat to land.

It's a good measure of overall atmospheric favorability, a metric that is more meaningful than land impacts when looking at how productive a season actually is. Though I do think it can put too much weight on how long a storm lasts rather than how strong it gets.

ACE has it's scientific place in the analysis of a seasons activity. I fully recognize and appreciate that. That's why I made sure that I got the point across that this was my own selfish little thought. Also, ACE is a mute point when a storm ramps up just before landfall.

[Hammy]

Something very notable showing up farther out in the models. The ITCZ is oriented SW to NE--a huge contrast to the last three seasons where it was almost straight east to west, leading to tropical waves coming off abnormally far north over cooler water, and stunting MDR activity.

[toad strangler]

Something very notable showing up farther out in the models. The ITCZ is oriented SW to NE--a huge contrast to the last three seasons where it was almost straight east to west, leading to tropical waves coming off abnormally far north over cooler water, and stunting MDR activity.

https://i.imgur.com/hmMVkJH.png

[AlphaToOmega]

Something very notable showing up farther out in the models. The ITCZ is oriented SW to NE--a huge contrast to the last three seasons where it was almost straight east to west, leading to tropical waves coming off abnormally far north over cooler water, and stunting MDR activity.

https://i.imgur.com/hmMVkJH.png

I thought the models showed an abnormally southern ITCZ, leading to tropical waves coming off warmer water.

[Shell Mound]

Is it really early July?

https://i.imgur.com/V05cmTn.jpg

On the other hand, does Elsa’s compact size while intensifying over the Windwards suggest that it is less representative of background conditions than a larger TC?

In other words, does the fact that Elsa was a relatively small system suggest that it says less about overall conditions in 2021 than a larger system might have...?

July storms aren't typically that large in the first place as pressures in that part of the Atlantic in early July are generally higher than in August and September. Even Emily in 2005 (the most active July on record, and the strongest July hurricane on record) was small through most of it's life prior to crossing the Yucatan and spreading out. Both Berthas in 1996 and 2008 were also fairly small once they organized.

The fact that Elsa is weakening in the Caribbean, unlike storms in June/July 1933 and 2005, suggests this season is likely to be less favourable than those two.

[AlphaToOmega]

On the other hand, does Elsa’s compact size while intensifying over the Windwards suggest that it is less representative of background conditions than a larger TC?

In other words, does the fact that Elsa was a relatively small system suggest that it says less about overall conditions in 2021 than a larger system might have...?

July storms aren't typically that large in the first place as pressures in that part of the Atlantic in early July are generally higher than in August and September. Even Emily in 2005 (the most active July on record, and the strongest July hurricane on record) was small through most of it's life prior to crossing the Yucatan and spreading out. Both Berthas in 1996 and 2008 were also fairly small once they organized.

The fact that Elsa is weakening in the Caribbean, unlike storms in June/July 1933 and 2005, suggests this season is likely to be less favourable than those two.

The fact that we are even having July hurricanes in the Caribbean should say something

[ElectricStorm]

On the other hand, does Elsa’s compact size while intensifying over the Windwards suggest that it is less representative of background conditions than a larger TC?

In other words, does the fact that Elsa was a relatively small system suggest that it says less about overall conditions in 2021 than a larger system might have...?

July storms aren't typically that large in the first place as pressures in that part of the Atlantic in early July are generally higher than in August and September. Even Emily in 2005 (the most active July on record, and the strongest July hurricane on record) was small through most of it's life prior to crossing the Yucatan and spreading out. Both Berthas in 1996 and 2008 were also fairly small once they organized.

The fact that Elsa is weakening in the Caribbean, unlike storms in June/July 1933 and 2005, suggests this season is likely to be less favourable than those two.

No offense, but are you trying to find everything you possibly can think of to suggest a less active season at this point? It almost just seems like you're -removed- now... A hurricane in the MDR on July 2 is pretty significant IMO

[tolakram]

On the other hand, does Elsa’s compact size while intensifying over the Windwards suggest that it is less representative of background conditions than a larger TC?

In other words, does the fact that Elsa was a relatively small system suggest that it says less about overall conditions in 2021 than a larger system might have...?

July storms aren't typically that large in the first place as pressures in that part of the Atlantic in early July are generally higher than in August and September. Even Emily in 2005 (the most active July on record, and the strongest July hurricane on record) was small through most of it's life prior to crossing the Yucatan and spreading out. Both Berthas in 1996 and 2008 were also fairly small once they organized.

The fact that Elsa is weakening in the Caribbean, unlike storms in June/July 1933 and 2005, suggests this season is likely to be less favourable than those two.

I don't see how you can say that. How can any single event predict the rest of a season? If it was that easy then seasonal forecasting would be a lot more accurate.

[Shell Mound]

July storms aren't typically that large in the first place as pressures in that part of the Atlantic in early July are generally higher than in August and September. Even Emily in 2005 (the most active July on record, and the strongest July hurricane on record) was small through most of it's life prior to crossing the Yucatan and spreading out. Both Berthas in 1996 and 2008 were also fairly small once they organized.

The fact that Elsa is weakening in the Caribbean, unlike storms in June/July 1933 and 2005, suggests this season is likely to be less favourable than those two.

I don't see how you can say that. How can any single event predict the rest of a season? If it was that easy then seasonal forecasting would be a lot more accurate.

Well, one can at least hope that this year will be at least somewhat less extreme than either 1933 or 2005 or both. But you are probably correct.

[CyclonicFury]

2017 had Tropical Storms Bret and Don open up into a wave near the Lesser Antilles. Both struggled and were never well organized. 2017 went on to have Hurricanes Irma and Maria in that region (Category 5s). The fact that we saw an early July hurricane in the MDR/eastern Caribbean, although it wasn't one for long, is a big red flag for peak season.

[AlphaToOmega]

This is probably one of the most favorable SST patterns for an active season