ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

My God.

I thought there would be some improvement but this thing is getting worse by the hour.

I think the Euro was up to something and this will unravel before it reaches FL.

no, because it has a very well defined llc.

[GCANE]

3 towers.
Enough to start heating up the core between them.

Red arrows depict latent heat flow out of each.
Heat is concentrated in the center of the three.


https://i.imgur.com/XLSwjLU.png

unfortunately the center is to the west of all of them

Warm care is about 6 miles up in the atmosphere.
If it keeps developing, it'll start rotating CCW with respect with the LLC.
Watch if the LLC starts moving more W or SW.
They could then start to stack.
Has some time over open water to do so.

[AveryTheComrade]

Elsa seems to be recovering well, might make a run for hurricane again before getting to Cuba, depends how much Haiti disrupts it but it shouldn't be too bad.

[toad strangler]

Good video by Levi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzZmvlL3lCs&t=59s

Levi pretty much says a strong Tropical Storm is the ceiling

[3090]

3 towers.
Enough to start heating up the core between them.

Red arrows depict latent heat flow out of each.
Heat is concentrated in the center of the three.


https://i.imgur.com/XLSwjLU.png

unfortunately the center is to the west of all of them

Why “unfortunately”? It is fortunate, Elsa is so disorganized. I am lost on the unfortunate description.

[GCANE]

355K PV much better than yesterday.
Chances better for stacking and reduced shear.

[skyline385]

Good video by Levi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzZmvlL3lCs&t=59s

Levi pretty much says a strong Tropical Storm is the ceiling

Ehh pretty sure he mentioned that it has a small chance for a run for a Hurricane again depending on the path it takes. But right now, not looking good...

[Aric Dunn]

Center was easily trackable in a long loop. it has now been covered by the various towers rotating around.

it has slowed quite a bit. down to around 20mph.

[SFLcane]

Good video by Levi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzZmvlL3lCs&t=59s

Levi pretty much says a strong Tropical Storm is the ceiling

Sure, for us in SFL we will be watching to see we’re exactly it exits Cuba. Atleast we have good radar coverage there.

[ElectricStorm]

3 towers.
Enough to start heating up the core between them.

Red arrows depict latent heat flow out of each.
Heat is concentrated in the center of the three.


https://i.imgur.com/XLSwjLU.png

unfortunately the center is to the west of all of them

Why “unfortunately”? It is fortunate, Elsa is so disorganized. I am lost on the unfortunate description.

I think he wants it to get strong... Which I don't understand why considering it's plowing right for populated land areas...

[galaxy401]

Elsa is going to benefit from missing Haiti and Jamaica along with it finally starting to slow down. How much she rebounds is a question. I don't think we should declare this storm dead yet at all.

Also the NHC does have it restrengthening when it is in the Gulf so be careful.

[GCANE]

Anticyclone stretched out to a really nice ULH Elsa will track into.
Chances looking better for intensification.

[ConvergenceZone]

Good video by Levi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzZmvlL3lCs&t=59s

Levi pretty much says a strong Tropical Storm is the ceiling

I agree with Levi. I think the forward speed is what ended up killing Elsa... I don't think after emerging off the coast of Cuba the remnants will have enough time to ramp up to a hurricane. The only time that would be possible is if the conditions in the Gulf were amazing, which they aren't....

[toad strangler]

Good video by Levi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzZmvlL3lCs&t=59s

Levi pretty much says a strong Tropical Storm is the ceiling

Sure, for us in SFL we will be watching to see we’re exactly it exits Cuba. Atleast we have good radar coverage there.

We get rain for sure but looks like the copious stuff stays just W of the Big O. We shall see! There is plenty of time for a curveball or two.

[aspen]

unfortunately the center is to the west of all of them

Why “unfortunately”? It is fortunate, Elsa is so disorganized. I am lost on the unfortunate description.

I think he wants it to get strong... Which I don't understand why considering it's plowing right for populated land areas...

Unfortunately for it, fortunately for Cuba/Jamaica/Florida. Although I don’t think Florida’s impacts will differ regardless if Elsa is a moderate TS or a weak hurricane at the time of Cuba landfall, because the mountains are still going to shred it up regardless.

[ElectricStorm]

Why “unfortunately”? It is fortunate, Elsa is so disorganized. I am lost on the unfortunate description.

I think he wants it to get strong... Which I don't understand why considering it's plowing right for populated land areas...

Unfortunately for it, fortunately for Cuba/Jamaica/Florida. Although I don’t think Florida’s impacts will differ regardless if Elsa is a moderate TS or a weak hurricane at the time of Cuba landfall, because the mountains are still going to shred it up regardless.

Not if it goes further west. Even if it stays on the NHC track, they still have it coming in to FL at 65mph, just 10 short of a Cat 1 hurricane...

[toad strangler]

Good video by Levi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzZmvlL3lCs&t=59s

Levi pretty much says a strong Tropical Storm is the ceiling

I agree with Levi. I think the forward speed is what ended up killing Elsa... I don't think after emerging off the coast of Cuba the remnants will have enough time to ramp up to a hurricane. The only time that would be possible is if the conditions in the Gulf were amazing, which they aren't....

For me, Levi is the top singular entity outside of the NHC itself. He just oozes with professionalism without the slightest notion of personal bias when analyzing, Incredibly talented dude.

[blp]

Center was easily trackable in a long loop. it has now been covered by the various towers rotating around.

it has slowed quite a bit. down to around 20mph.

https://i.ibb.co/Rv1KKVn/Capture.png

Levi mentioned the crossroads today. I think this is it. I agree it looks to have finally started slowing down. Can it take advantage now. If it does not slow down it won't matter if it misses the mountains in Cuba. Next 12 hrs will be very telling to what ends up happening to this system.

BTW: HWRF coming in much stronger at 18z.

[eastcoastFL]

My God.

I thought there would be some improvement but this thing is getting worse by the hour.

I think the Euro was up to something and this will unravel before it reaches FL.

The euro failed big time. According the Euro this should’ve crossed DR and be floating off into the Atlantic as an open wave by now. Yet as of the last advisory Elsa was missing all of Hispaniola well to the south and still a 70mph TS. I couldn’t tell you if it’s maintained or weakened since but it hasn’t quite dissipated.

[eastcoastFL]

Good video by Levi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzZmvlL3lCs&t=59s

Levi pretty much says a strong Tropical Storm is the ceiling

Sounds about right.