
ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Why is my gut and too many years experience to wake up the next day and the whole picture has changed. Elsa is possibly saving her best shot for Florida. And here in southeastern Florida once out in the straits it powers up and the ridge weakens and boom were gassing up and scrambling for toilet paper. 

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- toad strangler
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SFLcane wrote:Hi guys, I know this is the discussion thread but I just saw the 18z euro posted on Twitter and I think it was showing a hurricane in the Caribbean. Can someone confirm?
Post that twit link here
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
You can see an outline of an eye right next to the coldest tower.
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
toad strangler wrote:SFLcane wrote:Hi guys, I know this is the discussion thread but I just saw the 18z euro posted on Twitter and I think it was showing a hurricane in the Caribbean. Can someone confirm?
Post that twit link here
Don’t have the 18z euro anymore. But i saw the gust map to 80 mph in the Caribbean. If so wow
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- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks to me like the LLC reformed east under the convection
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- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Anticyclone is right there to her south west now as she continues to dodge land and dig into warmer SST’s. I’d have to see her slowing down now plus being in an optimal environment is now her best shot at intensifying if it’s going to happen.


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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Well it sure looks vastly improved in a few hours
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- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SFLcane wrote:toad strangler wrote:SFLcane wrote:Hi guys, I know this is the discussion thread but I just saw the 18z euro posted on Twitter and I think it was showing a hurricane in the Caribbean. Can someone confirm?
Post that twit link here
Don’t have the 18z euro anymore. But i saw the gust map to 80 mph in the Caribbean. If so wow
Think the models are starting to realize she’s not going to touch any land until she gets to Cuba and conditions are looking quite favorable for now.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Look at this folks! I know this is the discussion thread so my apologies just thought this was REALLY interesting.



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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Elsa are u RI right now??!!!!!
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Recon only found a pressure of 1007 mbar. Do center reformations result in such a high pressure rise?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
aspen wrote:Recon only found a pressure of 1007 mbar. Do center reformations result in such a high pressure rise?
That's not the center I think
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- skyline385
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SFLcane wrote:Look at this folks! I know this is the discussion thread so my apologies just thought this was REALLY interesting.![]()
https://i.postimg.cc/cC6t3x59/E854-F6-CA-6862-4-DDE-8667-7-FCB809-CBFBD.jpg
That track has a very early north turn
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- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
cane5 wrote:Why is my gut and too many years experience to wake up the next day and the whole picture has changed. Elsa is possibly saving her best shot for Florida. And here in southeastern Florida once out in the straits it powers up and the ridge weakens and boom were gassing up and scrambling for toilet paper.
Ans tomorrow being the fourth doesn’t help. Hopefully she sputters out over Cuba without doing any damage to people living there. Does anyone know how densely populated western Cuba is?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
skyline385 wrote:SFLcane wrote:Look at this folks! I know this is the discussion thread so my apologies just thought this was REALLY interesting.![]()
https://i.postimg.cc/cC6t3x59/E854-F6-CA-6862-4-DDE-8667-7-FCB809-CBFBD.jpg
That track has a very early north turn
Not focused on track just that the hwrf is not alone anymore bringing this to a Hurricane in the Caribbean.
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- ColdMiser123
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Recon is finding the center location a tad farther south compared to the NHC 8 pm location, between 17.5 and 17.6 N as opposed to 17.8 N. These small differences will matter as to whether Elsa makes landfall on the heel of Cuba or not.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SFLcane wrote:Hi guys, I know this is the discussion thread but I just saw the 18z euro posted on Twitter and I think it was showing a hurricane in the Caribbean. Can someone confirm?
It shows it getting to be a moderate to strong TS tonight, stronger compared to what it was showing in previous runs. But then it keeps it weak and makes landfall in the upper keys of FL.

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- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SFLcane wrote:Look at this folks! I know this is the discussion thread so my apologies just thought this was REALLY interesting.![]()
https://i.postimg.cc/cC6t3x59/E854-F6-CA-6862-4-DDE-8667-7-FCB809-CBFBD.jpg
I think the euro is still off. Missing us to the east seems unrealistic but I’ll take it. Damn I really hoped the models would have a better grip and agreement on track at this point. These wild swings are going to make it hard on the NHC too.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
ColdMiser123 wrote:Recon is finding the center location a tad farther south compared to the NHC 8 pm location, between 17.5 and 17.6 N as opposed to 17.8 N. These small differences will matter as to whether Elsa makes landfall on the heel of Cuba or not.
It seems like a micrometer could mean the difference between a 190 mph major hurricane and a remnant low
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