ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cane5
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2381 Postby cane5 » Sat Jul 03, 2021 8:13 pm

Why is my gut and too many years experience to wake up the next day and the whole picture has changed. Elsa is possibly saving her best shot for Florida. And here in southeastern Florida once out in the straits it powers up and the ridge weakens and boom were gassing up and scrambling for toilet paper. :flag:
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2382 Postby toad strangler » Sat Jul 03, 2021 8:13 pm

SFLcane wrote:Hi guys, I know this is the discussion thread but I just saw the 18z euro posted on Twitter and I think it was showing a hurricane in the Caribbean. Can someone confirm?


Post that twit link here
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2383 Postby sikkar » Sat Jul 03, 2021 8:14 pm

You can see an outline of an eye right next to the coldest tower.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2384 Postby SFLcane » Sat Jul 03, 2021 8:16 pm

toad strangler wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Hi guys, I know this is the discussion thread but I just saw the 18z euro posted on Twitter and I think it was showing a hurricane in the Caribbean. Can someone confirm?


Post that twit link here


Don’t have the 18z euro anymore. But i saw the gust map to 80 mph in the Caribbean. If so wow
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2385 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sat Jul 03, 2021 8:16 pm

Looks to me like the LLC reformed east under the convection
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2386 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Jul 03, 2021 8:17 pm

Anticyclone is right there to her south west now as she continues to dodge land and dig into warmer SST’s. I’d have to see her slowing down now plus being in an optimal environment is now her best shot at intensifying if it’s going to happen.

Image
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2387 Postby psyclone » Sat Jul 03, 2021 8:18 pm

Well it sure looks vastly improved in a few hours
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2388 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Jul 03, 2021 8:19 pm

SFLcane wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Hi guys, I know this is the discussion thread but I just saw the 18z euro posted on Twitter and I think it was showing a hurricane in the Caribbean. Can someone confirm?


Post that twit link here


Don’t have the 18z euro anymore. But i saw the gust map to 80 mph in the Caribbean. If so wow


Think the models are starting to realize she’s not going to touch any land until she gets to Cuba and conditions are looking quite favorable for now.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2389 Postby SFLcane » Sat Jul 03, 2021 8:19 pm

Look at this folks! I know this is the discussion thread so my apologies just thought this was REALLY interesting. :eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2390 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Jul 03, 2021 8:19 pm

Elsa are u RI right now??!!!!!
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2391 Postby aspen » Sat Jul 03, 2021 8:19 pm

Recon only found a pressure of 1007 mbar. Do center reformations result in such a high pressure rise?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2392 Postby BYG Jacob » Sat Jul 03, 2021 8:20 pm

aspen wrote:Recon only found a pressure of 1007 mbar. Do center reformations result in such a high pressure rise?

That's not the center I think
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2393 Postby skyline385 » Sat Jul 03, 2021 8:20 pm

SFLcane wrote:Look at this folks! I know this is the discussion thread so my apologies just thought this was REALLY interesting. :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/cC6t3x59/E854-F6-CA-6862-4-DDE-8667-7-FCB809-CBFBD.jpg


That track has a very early north turn
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2394 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Jul 03, 2021 8:21 pm

cane5 wrote:Why is my gut and too many years experience to wake up the next day and the whole picture has changed. Elsa is possibly saving her best shot for Florida. And here in southeastern Florida once out in the straits it powers up and the ridge weakens and boom were gassing up and scrambling for toilet paper. :flag:


Ans tomorrow being the fourth doesn’t help. Hopefully she sputters out over Cuba without doing any damage to people living there. Does anyone know how densely populated western Cuba is?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2395 Postby SFLcane » Sat Jul 03, 2021 8:21 pm

skyline385 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Look at this folks! I know this is the discussion thread so my apologies just thought this was REALLY interesting. :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/cC6t3x59/E854-F6-CA-6862-4-DDE-8667-7-FCB809-CBFBD.jpg


That track has a very early north turn


Not focused on track just that the hwrf is not alone anymore bringing this to a Hurricane in the Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2396 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sat Jul 03, 2021 8:22 pm

Recon is finding the center location a tad farther south compared to the NHC 8 pm location, between 17.5 and 17.6 N as opposed to 17.8 N. These small differences will matter as to whether Elsa makes landfall on the heel of Cuba or not.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2397 Postby NDG » Sat Jul 03, 2021 8:23 pm

SFLcane wrote:Hi guys, I know this is the discussion thread but I just saw the 18z euro posted on Twitter and I think it was showing a hurricane in the Caribbean. Can someone confirm?


It shows it getting to be a moderate to strong TS tonight, stronger compared to what it was showing in previous runs. But then it keeps it weak and makes landfall in the upper keys of FL.

Image
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2398 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Jul 03, 2021 8:23 pm

I see that Elsa has woken up from her nap.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2399 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Jul 03, 2021 8:23 pm

SFLcane wrote:Look at this folks! I know this is the discussion thread so my apologies just thought this was REALLY interesting. :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/cC6t3x59/E854-F6-CA-6862-4-DDE-8667-7-FCB809-CBFBD.jpg


I think the euro is still off. Missing us to the east seems unrealistic but I’ll take it. Damn I really hoped the models would have a better grip and agreement on track at this point. These wild swings are going to make it hard on the NHC too.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2400 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Jul 03, 2021 8:24 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:Recon is finding the center location a tad farther south compared to the NHC 8 pm location, between 17.5 and 17.6 N as opposed to 17.8 N. These small differences will matter as to whether Elsa makes landfall on the heel of Cuba or not.

It seems like a micrometer could mean the difference between a 190 mph major hurricane and a remnant low
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