#2411 Postby typhoonty » Sat Jul 03, 2021 8:31 pm
ColdMiser123 wrote:Recon is finding the center location a tad farther south compared to the NHC 8 pm location, between 17.5 and 17.6 N as opposed to 17.8 N. These small differences will matter as to whether Elsa makes landfall on the heel of Cuba or not.
I thought I saw the center make a lurch to the south about an hour ago, maybe a wobble due to land interaction. I originally thought it was IR playing tricks on me, but it may just be an attempt to stack the core. Pressures are higher but the minimum in FL wind speed, surface wind speed, and lowest MSLP are collocated. I think the lurch south was temporary and the rise in pressures are also short lived as the newly "stacked" center becomes more dominate. It's clearly better organized than a few hours ago even if the pressure is up.
Edit: Look at the expansion of cold cloud tops in the SW quad on IR. Speed-induced shear is lessening, so it makes sense Elsa would attempt to get better organized.
Last edited by
typhoonty on Sat Jul 03, 2021 8:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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FSU Meteorology student, opinions are mine, 20 years experience covering TC's, consult NHC/Local officials when making decisions.
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