ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

Recon is headed back into the convection now. We should get a real center pinned at the least. Location of the center will be crucial for many reasons. The obvious one is if it’s putting itself in a position to strengthen. Secondly, it’s important to know if the center can thread the needle between Cuba and Jamaica. A collision with Jamaica would basically put the nail in the coffin on this potentially becoming a hurricane again.

Just a couple hours ago it was Cuba at the wrong angle would be the nail in the C. Round and Round we go!

[eastcoastFL]

A Bit off topic, but I cancelled comcast cable over the winter due to their high rates and was bummed because I had to give up the weather channel(the only channel I watched), but then just found out that I can subscribe to Frndly TV for only $7.99 a month(streaming service) and it comes with the weather channel..Made my day .... Then I'll just cancel it once hurricane season is over....

You can’t just stream it for free from their website?

[GrayLancer18]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1411529774569304069

[AveryTheComrade]

Reminding me a lot of Cristina last year in the EPac, but it has time now, could still get its act together and intensify overnight.

[Hammy]

Missed the center to the west again. Large area of westerly winds to the south, so the LLC is much better established than it's been at any point today, and tropical storm winds have how wrapped around on the western side.

[eastcoastFL]

finally.... recon on the right track..

Would a center relocation to the east mean turning north further east?

[MarioProtVI]

Missed the center to the west again. Large area of westerly winds to the south, so the LLC is much better established than it's been at any point today, and tropical storm winds have how wrapped around on the western side.

https://i.imgur.com/AZS76oh.png

I think that’s a dying vort as there’s no way the pressure is that high… center probably farther northwest

[Aric Dunn]

[eastcoastFL]

Wherever that pass was they found the highest wind and rain rate so far for this mission

[tailgater]

These Extrapolated pressures seem off 117mb readings 50miles south of readings of 113mb

[captainbarbossa19]

It looks like Elsa is trying to slam into Jamaica now. She is definitely getting closer.

[Hammy]

Missed the center to the west again. Large area of westerly winds to the south, so the LLC is much better established than it's been at any point today, and tropical storm winds have how wrapped around on the western side.

https://i.imgur.com/AZS76oh.png

I think that’s a dying vort as there’s no way the pressure is that high… center probably farther northwest

They missed the center entirely by a good bit, very likely to avoid the intense updrafts. The takeaway is the circulation is no longer on the verge of being open and is solidly wrapping the winds around..to the west of the center.

Also looks like 50kt winds out of the north to the west of the center.

[NDG]

Looking at the recon, the LLC and MLC are not aligned yet on top of each other.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/dcareawx/status/1411530841554042881

[Aric Dunn]

def not a CCC,

and definitely the center is/has reorganized under what is seen on radar.

models are going to be interesting for 12z tomorrow..

00z models are worthless. 6z models might be halfway useable.

[SFLcane]

def not a CCC,

and definitely the center is/has reorganized under what is seen on radar.

models are going to be interesting for 12z tomorrow..

00z models are worthless. 6z models might be halfway useable.

Aric you think this impacts track?

[tolakram]

Heading in.

[cane5]

Needs to stay away from Jamaica !

[MarioProtVI]

Heading in.

https://i.imgur.com/p4hWA8O.png

What’s bizarre is the pressure is rising which doesn’t make sense. Wtf is this storm doing

[tolakram]

The 'eye like' feature just continues to get better.