ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GrayLancer18]

Jamaica has peaks too correct?

Yup.

The Blue Mountains ridge is located right on the Eastern Coast, where Elsa would enter.
Average heights are 5,000 ft and the highest peak is 7,400ft.

[stormhunter7]

recon heading home.. almost back to the Atlantic side.

[tolakram]

Check out the shockwave (not sure of the correct term) on shortwave.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-07-96-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[GeneratorPower]

Check out the shockwave (not sure of the correct term) on shortwave.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-07-96-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

The entire system is growing and consolidating.

[toad strangler]

Jamaica has peaks too correct?

http://i.ibb.co/56nTdyV/JAM.png

Elsa is not surviving that.

The Shredder Chain comes in many shapes and sizes

[AveryTheComrade]

I'm going to remain a contrarian and say things look good for Elsa here out, a likely reformation and it slowing down lowers the probability it hits Jamaica and it's over very favourable conditions until it makes landfall in Cuba.

[MississippiWx]

recon heading home.. almost back to the Atlantic side.

I hope this is false.

[Hammy]

recon heading home.. almost back to the Atlantic side.

I hope this is false.

More than likely this was the last center pass, and that would've been about 30 minutes ago. The question is if we'll ever see the data or have to wait until the next advisory to know.

[tolakram]

[AxaltaRacing24]

Still the HWRF, HMON, and CMC are taking this a bit more east into FL than the center of the cone shows. I guess that's why that part of FL is still in the cone.

[skyline385]

inb4 major ?

Didnt expect you of all people with a comment like that lol, you always seem to be one of the few level headed people around

[Aric Dunn]

[MississippiWx]

recon heading home.. almost back to the Atlantic side.

I hope this is false.

More than likely this was the last center pass, and that would've been about 30 minutes ago. The question is if we'll ever see the data or have to wait until the next advisory to know.

It’s like dangling meat in front of a dog’s nose. We weather nerds may bite anyway if you don’t let us see info like this.

[stormhunter7]

https://imgur.com/tt7uenL

usually call them gravity waves?

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://i.ibb.co/x2mZY7f/Capture.png

That better not be what it looks like.

[StPeteMike]

https://i.ibb.co/x2mZY7f/Capture.png

Called it earlier, will scrape the coast or within 20 miles of Jamaica. Pinpointing the consolidating center there with the current movement, something crazy would have to occur to make me wrong.

I don’t see the mountains have that major of an impact though.

[cane5]

Still the HWRF, HMON, and CMC are taking this a bit more east into FL than the center of the cone shows. I guess that's why that part of FL is still in the cone.

Please tell them to stay on track. lol

[stormhunter7]

this may be it?

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 17.70N 74.77W
- Time: 3:45:56Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 17.72N 74.79W
- Time: 3:50:15Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 130° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 31 knots (36 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 145° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 29 knots (33 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 696mb to 1009mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 120° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 28 knots (32 mph)

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like the anticyclone isn't quite lined up with Elsa yet. If it gets lined up, then Elsa will have a great environment to strengthen until it hits Cuba. Only real potential I see is clipping the mountain of E Jamaica. For now I'm sticking with a 65-70kt Cat 1 coming into Cuba. Obviously that will bust if it goes over the mountain. We'll see how she looks in the morning...

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.ibb.co/x2mZY7f/Capture.png

That better not be what it looks like.

Could be an eddy.