Looks like Elsa's consolidating pretty good and wrapping around. Pretty clear it's wrapping around, and I have a gif overlaying satellite and radar showing where the hot towers are on radar, though it might be off centered a bit. Linked as it's essentially a flashing image.
https://i.imgur.com/mpbo6WG.gif
ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
2 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
Keldeo1997
- Category 2
- Posts: 645
- Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 11:35 pm
Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1411547047346442243
For people thinking that Jamaica's mountains will rip it to shreads might need to think otherwise
For people thinking that Jamaica's mountains will rip it to shreads might need to think otherwise
9 likes
-
AtlanticWind
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1894
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
- Location: Plantation,Fla
Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I really dont see negative factors that would prevent Elsa from developing in
next 24 hours.
Kind of suprised the models have gone so negative on development.
Once it crosses cuba I expect the weakening.
next 24 hours.
Kind of suprised the models have gone so negative on development.
Once it crosses cuba I expect the weakening.
3 likes
-
AveryTheComrade
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 76
- Joined: Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:19 pm
Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Almost definitely an eye feature of sorts getting more pronounced, convection is warming over the center with a ring of higher cloudtops around it. I wish we had a plane in there right now.
2 likes
-
AutoPenalti
- Category 5
- Posts: 4035
- Age: 29
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It’s crunch time for Elsa, will it scrape Jamaica?
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
May be making a run for hurricane again, appears to be making the comma shape + towers surrounding the eye, which looks like will avoid Jamaica.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
hurricane2025
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 214
- Joined: Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:36 am
Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AveryTheComrade wrote:Almost definitely an eye feature of sorts getting more pronounced, convection is warming over the center with a ring of higher cloudtops around it. I wish we had a plane in there right now.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/619419338151034911/861147467706138634/58e91b17-c801-4506-9bcc-848855105661.jpeg
Dude it looks horrible
0 likes
-
Bocadude85
- Category 5
- Posts: 2991
- Age: 38
- Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
- Location: Honolulu,Hi
Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
hurricane2025 wrote:AveryTheComrade wrote:Almost definitely an eye feature of sorts getting more pronounced, convection is warming over the center with a ring of higher cloudtops around it. I wish we had a plane in there right now.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/619419338151034911/861147467706138634/58e91b17-c801-4506-9bcc-848855105661.jpeg
Dude it looks horrible
I guess you haven’t been watching the IR throughout the day, this is the best Elsa has looked in awhile.
6 likes
-
hurricane2025
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 214
- Joined: Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:36 am
Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Bocadude85 wrote:hurricane2025 wrote:AveryTheComrade wrote:Almost definitely an eye feature of sorts getting more pronounced, convection is warming over the center with a ring of higher cloudtops around it. I wish we had a plane in there right now.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/619419338151034911/861147467706138634/58e91b17-c801-4506-9bcc-848855105661.jpeg
I think it looks worse than it did 7 hours ago when I looked at it, radar can be deceiving
Dude it looks horrible
I guess you haven’t been watching the IR throughout the day, this is the best Elsa has looked in awhile.
0 likes
Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
hurricane2025 wrote:AveryTheComrade wrote:Almost definitely an eye feature of sorts getting more pronounced, convection is warming over the center with a ring of higher cloudtops around it. I wish we had a plane in there right now.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/619419338151034911/861147467706138634/58e91b17-c801-4506-9bcc-848855105661.jpeg
Dude it looks horrible
Huh? Looks to ramping back up to me
1 likes
Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
ADT is also noticing the improved structure and now has Elsa at CI# 3.4, pressure 993.4 mbar, Vmax 53 kt, which is the highest it's been since Elsa's initial peak.
5 likes
-
AveryTheComrade
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 76
- Joined: Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:19 pm
Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
kevin wrote:ADT is also noticing the improved structure and now has Elsa at CI# 3.4, pressure 993.4 mbar, Vmax 53 kt, which is the highest it's been since Elsa's initial peak.
Extremely off on the center location though
0 likes
-
AutoPenalti
- Category 5
- Posts: 4035
- Age: 29
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It may miss Jamaica by a hair
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Outflow improving some.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Where can we get updated microwave imagery besides https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html?
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
Keldeo1997
- Category 2
- Posts: 645
- Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 11:35 pm
Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hmmm
Last edited by Keldeo1997 on Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
6 likes
-
Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 16032
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
sikkar wrote:Where can we get updated microwave imagery besides https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html?
FNMOC TC
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Kingarabian wrote:sikkar wrote:Where can we get updated microwave imagery besides https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html?
FNMOC TC
Thanks.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
AveryTheComrade
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 76
- Joined: Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:19 pm
Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Warming over that point too, looks like a real eye starting to come on. Plane can't come any sooner.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests