ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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kevin
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2701 Postby kevin » Sun Jul 04, 2021 4:01 am



I also just noticed it on IR and checked whether someone else already posted it. Looks like a (proto-)eye may be developing.

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2702 Postby Hammy » Sun Jul 04, 2021 4:24 am

Center appears further south, likely moving into Jamaica in the next few hours, possibly before the plane arrives.

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2703 Postby AveryTheComrade » Sun Jul 04, 2021 4:51 am

Hammy wrote:Center appears further south, likely moving into Jamaica in the next few hours, possibly before the plane arrives.

https://i.imgur.com/md8Dial.png
https://i.imgur.com/RsMKVmR.gif

You're sure that's the center? NHC put it at 18.1, 75.5 50 minutes ago and I don't see anything rotating around what you circled.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2704 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sun Jul 04, 2021 4:53 am

Image


uhhhhhh ok ADT
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2705 Postby kevin » Sun Jul 04, 2021 5:01 am



I'm very interested what recon is gonna find. Also, Elsa has really slowed down to a halt (I mean relative to before of course). Only 14 mph according to NHC and I think it slowed down even more since then.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2706 Postby GCANE » Sun Jul 04, 2021 5:11 am

Very solid warm core, 250 to 550mb.
No tilt at these levels.

ADT has her a strengthening Cat1.
Recon will be the tell.

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2707 Postby Nimbus » Sun Jul 04, 2021 5:25 am

GCANE wrote:Very solid warm core, 250 to 550mb.
No tilt at these levels.

ADT has her a strengthening Cat1.
Recon will be the tell.

https://i.imgur.com/OLBsMTS.gif

https://i.imgur.com/JzjaNva.gif

https://i.imgur.com/xLU2kTH.gif


I was expecting a cat 1 again later today after she has time at the slower forward speed to ramp up.
Really can't position this with upper level cloud motion now.
NHC is even open to the possibility that the elusive pinhole eye may become disrupted over Jamaica.

GFS, HWRF and Hmon are tracking this into the big bend Florida area with the 00z models.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2708 Postby AveryTheComrade » Sun Jul 04, 2021 5:32 am

6Z GFS didn't even initialise with Elsa as a closed system so I'd say disregard
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2709 Postby chris_fit » Sun Jul 04, 2021 5:32 am

Recon almost there!

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2710 Postby NDG » Sun Jul 04, 2021 5:52 am

Once again 18z HWRF was too aggressive with Elsa for this morning, there's no way the pressure is down to the 980s when surface pressures in Cuba and Jamaica have barely fallen one mb.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2711 Postby TampaFl » Sun Jul 04, 2021 5:54 am

Chris_Fit do you have the link to the recon map you posted? Thanks
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2712 Postby Cat5James » Sun Jul 04, 2021 6:02 am

NDG wrote:Once again 18z HWRF was too aggressive with Elsa for this morning, there's no way the pressure is down to the 980s when surface pressures in Cuba and Jamaica have barely fallen one mb.

Elsa just stalled out next to Jamaica for 12 hours, something no model came close to showing.. I’d say that’s more significant than the HWRF being too aggressive.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2713 Postby NDG » Sun Jul 04, 2021 6:05 am

There's our crappy COC, lol.
Red dot is where they found the lowest pressure of 1007mb, extrap. Elsa at the surface is still a mess.

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2714 Postby Chemmers » Sun Jul 04, 2021 6:05 am

Look like it must be stacked again, think it only a matter of time before it a hurricane again
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2715 Postby NDG » Sun Jul 04, 2021 6:05 am

Cat5James wrote:
NDG wrote:Once again 18z HWRF was too aggressive with Elsa for this morning, there's no way the pressure is down to the 980s when surface pressures in Cuba and Jamaica have barely fallen one mb.

Elsa just stalled out next to Jamaica for 12 hours, something no model came close to showing.. I’d say that’s more significant than the HWRF being too aggressive.


Is on the move again this morning.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2716 Postby Cat5James » Sun Jul 04, 2021 6:07 am

NDG wrote:
Cat5James wrote:
NDG wrote:Once again 18z HWRF was too aggressive with Elsa for this morning, there's no way the pressure is down to the 980s when surface pressures in Cuba and Jamaica have barely fallen one mb.

Elsa just stalled out next to Jamaica for 12 hours, something no model came close to showing.. I’d say that’s more significant than the HWRF being too aggressive.


Is on the move again this morning.

I’m wondering if it is still expected to make it as far west before Cuba since it’s forward momentum was completely stopped.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2717 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Jul 04, 2021 6:07 am

Chemmers wrote:Look like it must be stacked again, think it only a matter of time before it a hurricane again

If it were properly stacked it would be deepening at a steady rate rather than slowly filling now. I think the TUTT to its northeast is inducing northwesterly shear.
Last edited by Shell Mound on Sun Jul 04, 2021 6:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2718 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 04, 2021 6:08 am

Yep, hwrf once again way too aggressive. The models showing this becoming a strung out mess are becoming more likely as Elsa deals with more land and interacts with the front later today and tomorrow
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2719 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Jul 04, 2021 6:09 am

The fact that Elsa continues to weaken despite slowing down considerably proves that the shear has not solely been “self-inflicted,” but is TUTT-related (WV).
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2720 Postby GCANE » Sun Jul 04, 2021 6:10 am

Recon measured a 43 mm/hr rain rate.
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