ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2841 Postby xironman » Sun Jul 04, 2021 9:57 am

The rare 1012 VDM raises its ugly head.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2842 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Jul 04, 2021 9:57 am

Wacth as the next recon pass finds a pressure of 1020 mbar :D
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2843 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 04, 2021 9:58 am

Weather Dude wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Frank P wrote:The last few frames in that radar loop looks like it’s certainly trying to wrap up, any other system I’d say it’s strengthening but with Elsa all bets are off…


yeah, it is back on track. will miss cuba to the south until later. maybe the havana area.

once it clears jamaica, and the southerly inflow returns uninterrupted, we should see it ramp back up pretty quick.... being in low shear and high ssts.

I would agree, however every recon pass the storm is weaker and weaker so I have no idea what to expect at this point


it needs to clear jamaica as I said. inflow needs to return.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2844 Postby BYG Jacob » Sun Jul 04, 2021 9:58 am

wxman57 wrote:Recon now says pressure up to 1012 mb. I've never seen this happen before, but if the pressure rises 1 more mb then Elsa will start rotating the opposite direction and become a high pressure area.

You know, for the past few years your posts were confusing and frustrating to me. Now that I know it's a bit, I can't help but admire it. As a college student looking to study hurricanes, your posts are helpful in grounding things around here.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2845 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Jul 04, 2021 9:59 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 76.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2846 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 04, 2021 9:59 am

50 kts at landfall north of Tampa Wednesday morning may be a bit generous. I have 40 kts and I thought I was being generous. They're not going to change anything until they see what's left of it north of Cuba. NHC doesn't like to indicate a weaker storm making landfall, as people might ignore the storm when they should still be playing close attention - just in case... They do mention that their intensity forecast in the Gulf is on the high end of guidance.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2847 Postby BYG Jacob » Sun Jul 04, 2021 10:00 am

I'm interested to see how quickly Elsa gets a feeder band going once it gets past Jamaica.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2848 Postby tolakram » Sun Jul 04, 2021 10:00 am

025
WTNT45 KNHC 041457
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

A NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Elsa
this morning. Flight-level and SFMR surface observations from
the aircraft indicate that the maximum winds are near 50 kt and the
estimated central pressure, about 1009 mb, is rather high for a
system of this intensity. Also, tail Doppler radar data from the
aircraft show an eastward tilt of the center with height.
Nonetheless, the storm still looks fairly impressive on satellite
images with a well-defined convective banding feature over the
northern through eastern portions of the circulation. Also, the
highest cloud tops are quite cold and near -70C.

Elsa's forward speed has slowed a little more, and the current
motion is around 290/11 kt. There hasn't been much change to the
track forecast or reasoning since the previous advisory. Over
the next few days, the tropical cyclone should move around the
western periphery of the subtropical ridge. The NHC forecast track
is similar to the previous official forecast, and close to the
model consensus. The latest GFS and HWRF solutions are to the west
of this forecast.

Elsa should remain in a low-shear environment through Monday, and
some strengthening is likely before the storm reaches Cuba,
assuming the circulation becomes better aligned vertically. The
storm should weaken somewhat due to its passage over Cuba. After
the cyclone emerges into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, only
slight restrengthening is forecast due to moderate southwesterly
shear. The official intensity forecast is on the high end of the
numerical intensity guidance suite.


Key Messages:

1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of
southern Haiti and Jamaica today where isolated to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact
the Cayman Islands and Cuba today into Monday resulting in
significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the
Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday, heavy
rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river
flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected
with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba later
today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
portions of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday.

3. Tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts are
expected beginning late Monday in the Florida Keys, and are
possible along the coast of southwestern Florida beginning
Monday night. Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are in
effect in those areas.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge,
and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula
Monday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the
Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. However, uncertainty in the
forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential
interaction with Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 18.7N 76.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 20.2N 78.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 21.9N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0000Z 23.4N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 06/1200Z 24.7N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 28.6N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/1200Z 38.5N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2849 Postby aspen » Sun Jul 04, 2021 10:13 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Wacth as the next recon pass finds a pressure of 1020 mbar :D

She’s saying “let it go” to the laws of atmospheric physics on Earth.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2850 Postby GCANE » Sun Jul 04, 2021 10:15 am

Recon is done
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2851 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Jul 04, 2021 10:15 am

:lol:
wxman57 wrote:Recon now says pressure up to 1012 mb. I've never seen this happen before, but if the pressure rises 1 more mb then Elsa will start rotating the opposite direction and become a high pressure area.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2852 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun Jul 04, 2021 10:18 am

Hold up
If Elsa had a pressure ≥ 1013 mb, it would be an anti-cyclone. Would that mean areas impacted would receive sunny weather instead of stormy weather?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2853 Postby Kazmit » Sun Jul 04, 2021 10:20 am

Keep in mind that Elsa's center passed within 30 miles of Jamaica's tallest mountain range, which is over 7000 feet tall. That makes its weakening less surprising.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2854 Postby presidentofyes12 » Sun Jul 04, 2021 10:20 am

I'd think that a storm with a pressure of 1010 millibars would have winds of around 30-35 mph- I don't know how Elsa still has winds of 60 mph. And the storm looks decent on satellite, which makes it even more confusing
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2855 Postby Stormybajan » Sun Jul 04, 2021 10:21 am

Maybe Elsa likes Jamaica and is choosing to vacation there for the day. Thats why her pressure is rising, shes slowing down and winds are dropping :lol:
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2856 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun Jul 04, 2021 10:22 am

The only explanation I can come up with is that Tropical Storm Elsa, just like Tropical Storm Danny, is embedded in a high-pressure system.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2857 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Jul 04, 2021 10:23 am

Hello, please evacuate for Elsa, expect sunny skies and dangerous 15 mph winds that can blow your hat off.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2858 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Jul 04, 2021 10:23 am

presidentofyes12 wrote:I'd think that a storm with a pressure of 1010 millibars would have winds of around 30-35 mph- I don't know how Elsa still has winds of 60 mph. And the storm looks decent on satellite, which makes it even more confusing

Afternoon thunderstorms usually accompany wind speeds of that through microbursts. It’s possible radar may have been caught in some.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2859 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Jul 04, 2021 10:24 am

Ever since I started tracking storms in 2017, I am confident to say that Elsa deserves a medal for excessively trolling us trackers.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2860 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun Jul 04, 2021 10:25 am

Image
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