ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Does the clipping of the toe of Cuba there mean a more east track and track towards the west coast of Florida?...

not really telling much about future track..

Just that of cuba has some high mountains.

[blp]

Last images looks like it will miss. Also looks to be consolidating well now.

[Sanibel]

Edit: Track seems to be more WNW than I realized once you look at the wider view...

[cane5]

How West it goes depends on the high pressure ridge in the Gulf. Does that weaken just enough to open a bigger window and the cone shift a bit more to the west ?

[Category5Kaiju]

While I am not 100% in any manner, I am curious to see if clipping the east Cuban mountains would actually help Elsa organize a bit due to friction or something like that?

[StPeteMike]

Edit: Track seems to be more WNW than I realized once you look at the wider view...

Was going to reply with the original post but yeah, still WNW movement. Don’t let the two lows fool you, especially on a storm trying to get its crap together.

[robbielyn]

Last images looks like it will miss. Also looks to be consolidating well now.

https://i.ibb.co/rQbSJ6j/Elsa-4-5-Jul21-pln.gif

but is it forecasted to cross over the escambray mountains in the center at 3740 foot elevation? what would that do to elsa’s small core?

[cycloneye]

Is anyone having to wait a bit to get to the tropical tidbits site? Looks like big traffic is slowing down the site.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[Stormybajan]

Lots of poles down in Barbados
Over 800 roofs gone
And 10s of houses collapsed
This is after initial assessment.
I’m in the south of the island and we still have no electricity.

Anyone know what the maximum wind speeds experienced in Barbados were

Probably the 74 mph sustained and 86 mph gust bout 7:30 a.m they recorded at the airport. When I saw 62 houses collapsed and nearly 800 roofs damaged this morning I was shocked. Elsa did more damage than I thought. This is just a reminder to us that we have, can, and WILL receive hurricanes in the future, if Grenada can get a Ivan (cat 4) who says we cant get one either..

[Stormybajan]

Is anyone having to wait a bit to get to the tropical tidbits site? Looks like big traffic is slowing down the site.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

The site has been saying im "offline" for the last 15 minutes, good to know its not just me

[psyclone]

Last images looks like it will miss. Also looks to be consolidating well now.

https://i.ibb.co/rQbSJ6j/Elsa-4-5-Jul21-pln.gif

but is it forecasted to cross over the escambray mountains in the center at 3740 foot elevation? what would that do to elsa’s small core?

There isn't much of a core to disrupt at this point. I do recall Dennis of 05 clipping cuba then running parallel south of the island before finally making landfall...at which point the deep convection surrounding the eye warmed and the storm drifted more westward before finally departing the island, deepening and resuming its northwestward trajectory. this system (near term) is on a similar course but at a greatly reduced intensity. it's certainly in a zone where other storms have thrived..

[kevin]

Is anyone having to wait a bit to get to the tropical tidbits site? Looks like big traffic is slowing down the site.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Even Tropical Tidbits couldn't figure Elsa out so they just decided to give up . But yes I'm having the same problem.

[cane5]

You really will not know enough until it moves into the straits where storms have been know to fire up intensely. So what we thought we would know today will be suspended until tommorrow. Had we been looking at a well defined storm today then today Sunday we would pretty much feel secure in our projections.

[blp]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1411741105310244865

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely going to miss tip of Cuba. Circ appears to be getting better defined as well. Should also be getting its southerly inflow again soon as it is nearly past jamaica. hopefully 18z models will have enough position data to go off of. otherwise we can throw them out too.

[eastcoastFL]

Gonna be close but looks like it’s going to miss E.Cuba

[BYG Jacob]

Definitely going to miss tip of Cuba. Circ appears to be getting better defined as well. Should also be getting its southerly inflow again soon as it is nearly past jamaica. hopefully 18z models will have enough position data to go off of. otherwise we can throw them out too.

https://i.ibb.co/mzkSSXH/ezgif-com-gif-maker-37.gif

Pulse down phase, gonna go bonkers when it clears off Jamaica

[eastcoastFL]

Definitely going to miss tip of Cuba. Circ appears to be getting better defined as well. Should also be getting its southerly inflow again soon as it is nearly past jamaica. hopefully 18z models will have enough position data to go off of. otherwise we can throw them out too.

https://i.ibb.co/mzkSSXH/ezgif-com-gif-maker-37.gif

Looks like it’s contracting when the bands go over the Cuban mountains. It didn’t like that.

[skillz305]

Moving NW at 14mph. Afraid the cone will shift east a bit at 5pm.

[eastcoastFL]

Moving NW at 14mph. Afraid the cone will shift east a bit at 5pm.

It might if she turns more due north sooner than expected.