ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3021 Postby cane5 » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:26 pm

When I personally track storms I mainly look at where we end up. To me strength is too hard to predict. The dynamic I posted earlier shows a digging low front traugh for storm purposes. And so we have 2 high pressure systems one on each side of the state. So with tha digging trough it will pull Elsa ahead of projection and then more east with the ridge in the atlantic weakening. Bottom line it puts all of Southern Florida not just the keys on high alert. Just my opinion. Mark this post.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3022 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:27 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:Major landmass obstacles are finally out of the way, and Elsa has the structure to take the advantage.
There is another one dead ahead, the conducive environment is very short-lived.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3023 Postby hohnywx » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:27 pm

skyline385 wrote:
hohnywx wrote:
NDG wrote:
Is showing a tropical storm hitting FL so what about it.


My point being, some are calling Elsa “dead” and the Euro just had its strongest run yet.


That strongest run was just a Tropical storm though, we get TS force winds all the time here during random downpours...


OK, and? This is a forum to discuss tropical weather, not random downpours.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3024 Postby Jr0d » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:28 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Southerly inflow has returned west of Jamaica. Can see it increasing on visible. Pretty much immediately as it started convection has bgun to build.


Looking much better organized based on radar too.

I do think recon will find a stronger storm than this morning. That said, the recon flight just passed north of Key West...just out of range to see it....it is taking a westward jog before going in.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3025 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:28 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:

wow , see some low pressures on some near naples


Yep, I am sunrise if euro verified that would surely put us in some gusty rain bands and heavy rains.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3026 Postby AtlanticWind » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:28 pm

I would expect a blowup of convection tonight as we get away from Dmin. and it is now moving across very warm waters, but who knows with Elsa.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3027 Postby rigbyrigz » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:28 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Not really a Florida geography person, but if this storm were to make landfall in the Bend region north of Tampa but east of Tallahassee, what major cities would be most at risk?

I live there... there is a town an hour of so south-southeast of Tally called PERRY 20,000 pop. And there are the beachfront communities on the Gulf such as Keaton Beach (destroyed by Irma) and Steinhatchee.

Not much else hereabouts.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3028 Postby ocala » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:29 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Not really a Florida geography person, but if this storm were to make landfall in the Bend region north of Tampa but east of Tallahassee, what major cities would be most at risk?

Ocala, Gainesville, Lake City. Jacksonville would be the only large city in its path but I believe it's intensity would be diminished by the time it got there.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3029 Postby tolakram » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:30 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:Can someone turn down the ads on S2K? I’m seeing every second post is an advertisement for some chick wearing boots.


2 ads per page, I'm not seeing anymore. Are you browsing S2K or are you using tapatalk?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3030 Postby BYG Jacob » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:30 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:Major landmass obstacles are finally out of the way, and Elsa has the structure to take the advantage.
There is another one dead ahead, the conducive environment is very short-lived.

Elsa has more time than you think.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3031 Postby tolakram » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:33 pm

COD has been having issues but online at the moment.

Speed this loop up: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Jamaica-02-96-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3032 Postby rigbyrigz » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:34 pm

cane5 wrote:When I personally track storms I mainly look at where we end up. To me strength is too hard to predict. The dynamic I posted earlier shows a digging low front traugh for storm purposes. And so we have 2 high pressure systems one on each side of the state. So with tha digging trough it will pull Elsa ahead of projection and then more east with the ridge in the atlantic weakening. Bottom line it puts all of Southern Florida not just the keys on high alert. Just my opinion. Mark this post.

Some models ARE now showing almost a due East trek across Florida, but maybe near Tampa or the Big Bend, will be interesting (and important to many).
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3033 Postby GeneratorPower » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:34 pm

tolakram wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:Can someone turn down the ads on S2K? I’m seeing every second post is an advertisement for some chick wearing boots.


2 ads per page, I'm not seeing anymore. Are you browsing S2K or are you using tapatalk?


Here’s a sample. Two ads in a row and one at the bottom and also there was two more farther up on the page. Sorry it won’t embed
https://ibb.co/X8f7wSq
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3034 Postby aspen » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:34 pm

Why is recon going west instead of, you know, towards the storm?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3035 Postby Sal Collaziano » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:36 pm

tolakram wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:Can someone turn down the ads on S2K? I’m seeing every second post is an advertisement for some chick wearing boots.


2 ads per page, I'm not seeing anymore. Are you browsing S2K or are you using tapatalk?


Seven per page for me.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3036 Postby AtlanticWind » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:37 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:Major landmass obstacles are finally out of the way, and Elsa has the structure to take the advantage.
There is another one dead ahead, the conducive environment is very short-lived.

Elsa has more time than you think.

has about 12 to 15 hours I would guess, that can be a lot of time in the tropics sometimes.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3037 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:37 pm

aspen wrote:Why is recon going west instead of, you know, towards the storm?


They are not going to cross Cuba so they will go the the Yucatán Channel and come back. NOAA planes cross that island but Air Force ones dont.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3038 Postby aspen » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:
aspen wrote:Why is recon going west instead of, you know, towards the storm?


They are not going to cross Cuba so they will go the the Yucatán Channel and come back. NOAA planes cross that island but Air Force ones dont.

Ah okay. I didn’t know only some planes were able to cross Cuban airspace.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3039 Postby Steve » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:39 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Not really a Florida geography person, but if this storm were to make landfall in the Bend region north of Tampa but east of Tallahassee, what major cities would be most at risk?


There aren’t any except Jacksonville. Then you have some middle sized cities in southern and coastal Georgia. Also it’s really hard for anything strong to landfall east of Apalachicola until you get about halfway down the peninsula. In recorded history there may be one cat 3 and a couple cat 2’s.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3040 Postby Jr0d » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:39 pm

I thought the hurricane hunters were exempt from the Cuba no-fly rule....but it looks like Teal 72 is taking a trip around Cuba, instead of going straight to the storm....

https://www.flightradar24.com/TEAL72/2849d491
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