ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

That burst is gonna blow up the pressure gradient again.

What pressure gradient lol

[Hammy]

Deep layer inflow starting to establish itself based on cloud motion, something that's been absent for the last few days.

[jlauderdal]

Last shot before sun goes down. To me it has that “look” it is going to try and gain some strength. Considering both the Euro and GFS runs show a decent Tropical Storm impacting the west coast of Florida whereas in their prior runs not much, Elsa may just create some impacts which may surprise some who may have written her off:

https://i.postimg.cc/28zDvbwL/goes16-vis-swir-watl.gif

Except she’s had that look for the past 2-3 days now.

It always seems to have the look of better inflow, stacking, cooling tops and everything else that would precede intensification yet here we are

[psyclone]

Those wind probabilities cover a specific time frame and rise as a storm gets closer to the area. Yesterday that percentage was 0. By Wednesday it’ll probably be 30-40% if the storm maintains course.

Not if they're expecting the system to be depression intensity before it leaves florida. I'll be shocked if i get sustained, gradient induced ts winds here.

Who’s expecting it to be a depression? Official NHC forecast has it riding up the coast as a tropical storm.

They expect a depression before the FL/GA line. the very end point out in the atlantic shows storm intensity but that will be a non issue for land dwellers.

[Mfrier]

I only can tell if it’s strengthening because Aric will make a post and if it’s beginning to degrade wxman will make a post.

It’s like clockwork, with these “barely hanging on” storms. The storm appears to start looking better on satellite before dark and then come the morning time it’s unwinding itself. Hopefully that’s what is going to happen again tonight. There’s been a lot of moisture already in the south east as it is.

[Category5Kaiju]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=midshr&zoom=&time=


Looks like shear both deep layer and mid level are not too bad currently. Let's see how well Elsa can take advantage of the environment around her given conditions seem to be favorable and that she has cleared Jamaica

[Steve]

Duplicate

[Steve]

I'll believe Elsa is strengthening when recon confirms it, otherwise it's just another show.

Yeah. But tracking this is better than reading posts about SAL.

[blp]

llc looking much better now that it cleared cuban mountains.

[Nuno]

I'll believe Elsa is strengthening when recon confirms it, otherwise it's just another show.

Yeah. But tracking this is better than reading posts about SAL.

Or microanalyzing SST anomalies

[aspen]

I'll believe Elsa is strengthening when recon confirms it, otherwise it's just another show.

Yeah. But tracking this is better than reading posts about SAL.

This season, it’s all about SST handwringing instead of SAL handwringing. Elsa has distracted everyone from how the MDR is still cooler than average on the CDAS map.

[Ubuntwo]

Center dropsonde of 1006 mb with some surface wind. Elsa is not done yet.

[aspen]

Center dropsonde of 1006 mb with some surface wind. Else is not done yet.

It’s not appearing on Tropical Tidbits.

[Nimbus]

Recon tomorrow may find something in the burst before Cuban landfall, I'd guess pressure is down some maybe ~1005 mb's now.

[Ubuntwo]

Center dropsonde of 1006 mb with some surface wind. Else is not done yet.

It’s not appearing on Tropical Tidbits.

It's up on tidbits now. 8PM advisory goes 1005 mb, fittingly.

[Category5Kaiju]

Omg finally, a pressure reading that actually makes sense!

[artist]

[Hammy]

Still tilted, but we now have a clearly visible MLC and confirmed location of the center (circle is the recon fix) to compare with, so more definitively organizing based on this and the increased southwesterly inflow about a hundred or so miles south. Looks like the flow around the islands was doing some strange things with the wind flow/pressure last night.

[AutoPenalti]

llc looking much better now that it cleared cuban mountains.

https://i.ibb.co/Tbf7VLG/Elsa-4-5-Jul21-pln.gif

Really? To me it looks worse than it did before it got to the mountains.

[Ken711]

Does the track over Cuba take it over any mountainous area?