ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bqknight]

Seems to be headed a bit more WNW, instead of NW for now.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z Best Track up to 55 knots.

[wxman57]

Elsa finally looks like a normal tropical storm on recon. I'd peg it around 55 knots.

All those higher winds were flagged in heavy rain. Max FL wind only about 55 kts. Most likely closer to 45 kts. Looked better-organized on satellite all day than it does now. Oh well, been looking at it since I started work at 5am. Time to NOT look at it any more today. Another early shift tomorrow. Looks like it is behaving itself. By that I mean, it's following my forecast...

[bqknight]

Elsa finally looks like a normal tropical storm on recon. I'd peg it around 55 knots.

All those higher winds were flagged in heavy rain. Max FL wind only about 55 kts. Most likely closer to 45 kts. Looked better-organized on satellite all day than it does now. Oh well, been looking at it since I started work at 5am. Time to NOT look at it any more today. Another early shift tomorrow. Looks like it is behaving itself. By that I mean, it's following my forecast...

What's your take on radar presentation though? I feel like it looks better on radar than it has all day.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sanibel]

Falling apart...I wouldn't put any money on this system...

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 55 knots.

AL, 05, 2021070500, , BEST, 0, 202N, 787W, 55, 1005, TS

[AveryTheComrade]

Falling apart...I wouldn't put any money on this system...

I'd like to know your definition of falling apart since it hasn't looked any better in like 2 days

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Elsa finally looks like a normal tropical storm on recon. I'd peg it around 55 knots.

All those higher winds were flagged in heavy rain. Max FL wind only about 55 kts. Most likely closer to 45 kts. Looked better-organized on satellite all day than it does now. Oh well, been looking at it since I started work at 5am. Time to NOT look at it any more today. Another early shift tomorrow. Looks like it is behaving itself. By that I mean, it's following my forecast...

NHC disagrees by the looks of it. Max FL doesn't always translate well in disorganized tropical storms, from what I've seen at least.

[Michele B]

Every 2 hours I tell myself I'll stop obsessing over this damned storm for a while and then an hour later I'm back, I just want it gone.

We too, especially since we're "in the cone," and we need to know if we will need to bug out or not!

[AtlanticWind]

Other than missing the quick strengthening episode near Barbados Elsa has
Followed the Nhc forecast intensity and path pretty well.

[Jr0d]

Not going to strengthen unless pressure falls....recon indicates this is not happening.

Good news for the Florida Keys...I have been worried about Elsa going RI and catching everyone off guard...almost certain now the most I will see in Key West is moderate TS conditions.

[robbielyn]

Levi just put out his youtube video!

[Prosepro]

Every 2 hours I tell myself I'll stop obsessing over this damned storm for a while and then an hour later I'm back, I just want it gone.

We too, especially since we're "in the cone," and we need to know if we will need to bug out or not!

Likely won't be much "bugging out." But maybe a few preparations. Here, taking bird feeders down, taking potential projectiles down, some battling down of a few hatches, so to speak, and checking flashlights and battery operated fans.

Here in Gulfport, Florida, some businesses in low areas are stacking up some sand bags.

I don't think we'll put up the plywood on the windows, but we have gas in our cars.

[Hammy]

Situation becoming clearer on radar.

[aspen]

Third pass: SFMR nearly 65 kt, but the center is back to having high pressures and zero gradient.

[DestinHurricane]

Third pass: SFMR nearly 65 kt, but the center is back to having high pressures and zero gradient.

looks like they missed center

[Michele B]

Every 2 hours I tell myself I'll stop obsessing over this damned storm for a while and then an hour later I'm back, I just want it gone.

We too, especially since we're "in the cone," and we need to know if we will need to bug out or not!

Likely won't be much "bugging out." But maybe a few preparations. Here, taking bird feeders down, taking potential projectiles down, some battling down of a few hatches, so to speak, and checking flashlights and battery operated fans.

Here in Gulfport, Florida, some businesses in low areas are stacking up some sand bags.

I don't think we'll put up the plywood on the windows, but we have gas in our cars.

Well, we had to move to a "less than stout" structure, so we may bug out to safer quarters if it looks like we'll get anything higher than 50-60 m/h winds. Too many windows and unable to board up - like in old times.

[Jr0d]

Unflagged 64kt SFMR in the latest pass...getting close to H status..pressure has to go below 1000mb. Likely not enough to upgrade, but can see the NHC going with 65 or 70mph next advisory.b

[Stormybajan]

I know ATCF says 65 mph, however Im going for NHC to go with 70 mph at 11