ATL: ELSA - Models

[MetroMike]

Gfs a bit stronger and further eastward. Perhaps trending towards the Euro

https://i.postimg.cc/brN4TNxD/502-E86-DD-F046-48-D1-A97-D-ACDF1-C914-F81.gif

Maybe the 0z will be more interesting, or maybe it will drop it again.

[hurricane2025]

18z euro stronger

[SFLcane]

18z euro stronger

Please post

[hurricane2025]

18z euro stronger

Please post

I sent it to u

[AtlanticWind]

Stronger when? In the gulf?

[bqknight]

18z euro stronger

Please post

I sent it to u

I know you may not be able to share images, but can you share details? How much stronger? Where does it make landfall in the US and as what?

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro:


http://www.weathermodels.com

[Hypercane_Kyle]

FYI - it's really useful to be specific with what a model output is showing if you cannot post an image. Being vague, especially with a model behind a paywall, is not helpful.

[Kingarabian]

FYI - it's really useful to be specific with what a model output is showing if you cannot post an image. Being vague, especially with a model behind a paywall, is not helpful.

It's just tough because of certain TOS requirements from these websites.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

FYI - it's really useful to be specific with what a model output is showing if you cannot post an image. Being vague, especially with a model behind a paywall, is not helpful.

It's just tough because of certain TOS requirements from these websites.

I get that sharing an image or a loop might violate the TOS, but I don't see how saying "18z Euro shows 998mb at landfall along the Florida coast" would violate anything.

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1411852599867883521

[MrJames]

18Z ensembles for the GFS and Euro

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidanc ... ?tcid=AL05

GFS is more tightly clustered from Tampa to Pensacola with most in the big bend area. Euro goes from Marco Island to Destin with an even spread.

[Shell Mound]

00Z ECMWF shows a strengthening Elsa making landfall near Steinhatchee, FL—MSW appear to be on the order of 50-55 kt

[NDG]

06z Euro has Elsa close to hurricane strength for a few hours before weakening again before landfall, for whatever is worth. Interesting that it is now west of the GFS.
So inconsistent with for days opening up into a wave east of FL to now almost a hurricane. King Euro is a distant memory of what it once was a few years ago.

[gatorcane]

Seems like the models keeping shifting west little by little the last several cycles with landfall now in north Florida and not along the west coast:

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1411990486957576193

[tolakram]

The 6Z euro takes Elsa at 1000MB into the big bend area. Precip is right side weighted but not as much as you might expect for a sheared storm. Eastern Florida gets very little rain, with Jacksonville maybe picking up .75 inches when all is said and done.

[Steve H.]

But some shear from the sw will bring heavier rain to the east coast as well. You know the drill. Sloppy systems always rain further east.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1412088099044265987

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS with 65+mph wind gusts along coastal Manatee, Sarasota, and Pinellas counties.