2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Category5Kaiju]

This is probably one of the most favorable SST patterns for an active season
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2021070400/cfs-mon_01_ssta_global_2.png

Somehow, I think the western part of the basin may be more favorable compared to the MDR yet again this season. Wind shear sure has been relatively low in the Caribbean lately.

Last year's SST pattern was horrible for MDR development. The MDR was practically below-average. I am not seeing that on the forecast.

Actually last year's MDR sst anomalies were one of the highest recorded at least during the heart of the hurricane season. What really hurt the chances of long lived MDR systems last year was the extremely potent AEJ causing a LOT of Sahara dust to be ejected in rapid fire succcession as well as the ITCZ waves clumping together and taking much longer to break free and develop.

[Stormybajan]

Somehow, I think the western part of the basin may be more favorable compared to the MDR yet again this season. Wind shear sure has been relatively low in the Caribbean lately.

Last year's SST pattern was horrible for MDR development. The MDR was practically below-average. I am not seeing that on the forecast.

Actually last year's MDR sst anomalies were one of the highest recorded at least during the heart of the hurricane season. What really hurt the chances of long lived MDR systems last year was the extremely potent AEJ causing a LOT of Sahara dust to be ejected in rapid fire succcession as well as the ITCZ waves clumping together and taking much longer to break free and develop.

Exactly. To add to this what also prevented us from having a robust MDR season is the formation of the TUTT affecting the region and the SHEER SIZE AND MASS of the tropical waves we saw last year. Remember Hurricane Isaias? I have never seen a bigger tropical wave than the one Isaias formed from last year ..it looked like a CAG in the MDR

[AlphaToOmega]

Somehow, I think the western part of the basin may be more favorable compared to the MDR yet again this season. Wind shear sure has been relatively low in the Caribbean lately.

Last year's SST pattern was horrible for MDR development. The MDR was practically below-average. I am not seeing that on the forecast.

Actually last year's MDR sst anomalies were one of the highest recorded at least during the heart of the hurricane season. What really hurt the chances of long lived MDR systems last year was the extremely potent AEJ causing a LOT of Sahara dust to be ejected in rapid fire succcession as well as the ITCZ waves clumping together and taking much longer to break free and develop.

[Category5Kaiju]

Either way, the fact that we got Elsa in the first place makes me want to believe that the non sst-related issues last year in the MDR may unfortunately not be the case come this ASO.

[weeniepatrol]

Folks, it's almost season cancel season.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1412256529055690757

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1412256529055690757

2018's missing but further illustrates the point, given how active that year was (especially despite the quiet August)

[SFLcane]

Hide..

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1412435670317076482

[cycloneye]

Hide..

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/stat ... 0317076482

Fasten your seatbelts and get ready for a long ride.

[AlphaToOmega]

July 2020 showed an ACE 100% of the normal. July 2021 shows an ACE 120% of the normal. This is a bad sign. In fact, the ECMWF forecasts have been ridiculous this year. The Euro has been conservative with hurricane forecasts for the past few years, which makes this even more ominous. The base state for 2021 is not much different from 2018, 2019, or 2020. The data collected is from the June forecast, but the point still remains: we are in for another wild ride.

ECMWF June forecast vs. actual activity: storms
2017: 11.6 forecasted storms; 17 storms
2018: 7.7 forecasted storms; 15 storms
2019: 8.5 forecasted storms; 18 storms
2020: 11 forecasted storms; 30 storms
2021: 17.1 forecasted storms; ?? storms

ECMWF June forecast vs. actual activity: hurricanes
2017: 6.3 hurricanes; 10 hurricanes
2018: 3.5 hurricanes; 8 hurricanes
2019: 4.3 hurricanes; 6 hurricanes
2020: 5.5 hurricanes; 14 hurricanes
2021: 9.5 hurricanes; ?? hurricanes

ECMWF June forecast vs. actual activity: ACE
2017: 107 ACE; 225 ACE
2018: 59 ACE; 132 ACE
2019: 71 ACE; 132 ACE
2020: 95 ACE; 184 ACE
2021: 165 ACE; ??? ACE

[SFLcane]

July 2020 showed an ACE 100% of the normal. July 2021 shows an ACE 120% of the normal. This is a bad sign. In fact, the ECMWF forecasts have been ridiculous this year. The Euro has been conservative with hurricane forecasts for the past few years, which makes this even more ominous. The base state for 2021 is not much different from 2018, 2019, or 2020. The data collected is from the June forecast, but the point still remains: we are in for another wild ride.

ECMWF June forecast vs. actual activity: storms
2017: 11.6 forecasted storms; 17 storms
2018: 7.7 forecasted storms; 15 storms
2019: 8.5 forecasted storms; 18 storms
2020: 11 forecasted storms; 30 storms
2021: 17.1 forecasted storms; ?? storms

ECMWF June forecast vs. actual activity: hurricanes
2017: 6.3 hurricanes; 10 hurricanes
2018: 3.5 hurricanes; 8 hurricanes
2019: 4.3 hurricanes; 6 hurricanes
2020: 5.5 hurricanes; 14 hurricanes
2021: 9.5 hurricanes; ?? hurricanes

ECMWF June forecast vs. actual activity: ACE
2017: 107 ACE; 225 ACE
2018: 59 ACE; 132 ACE
2019: 71 ACE; 132 ACE
2020: 95 ACE; 184 ACE
2021: 165 ACE; ??? ACE

Do you know if they changed their methods this year? Wondering if they corrected for past biases

[St0rmTh0r]

July 2020 showed an ACE 100% of the normal. July 2021 shows an ACE 120% of the normal. This is a bad sign. In fact, the ECMWF forecasts have been ridiculous this year. The Euro has been conservative with hurricane forecasts for the past few years, which makes this even more ominous. The base state for 2021 is not much different from 2018, 2019, or 2020. The data collected is from the June forecast, but the point still remains: we are in for another wild ride.

ECMWF June forecast vs. actual activity: storms
2017: 11.6 forecasted storms; 17 storms
2018: 7.7 forecasted storms; 15 storms
2019: 8.5 forecasted storms; 18 storms
2020: 11 forecasted storms; 30 storms
2021: 17.1 forecasted storms; ?? storms

ECMWF June forecast vs. actual activity: hurricanes
2017: 6.3 hurricanes; 10 hurricanes
2018: 3.5 hurricanes; 8 hurricanes
2019: 4.3 hurricanes; 6 hurricanes
2020: 5.5 hurricanes; 14 hurricanes
2021: 9.5 hurricanes; ?? hurricanes

ECMWF June forecast vs. actual activity: ACE
2017: 107 ACE; 225 ACE
2018: 59 ACE; 132 ACE
2019: 71 ACE; 132 ACE
2020: 95 ACE; 184 ACE
2021: 165 ACE; ??? ACE

That's an apocalyptic hurricane season if that verifies

[Category5Kaiju]

July 2020 showed an ACE 100% of the normal. July 2021 shows an ACE 120% of the normal. This is a bad sign. In fact, the ECMWF forecasts have been ridiculous this year. The Euro has been conservative with hurricane forecasts for the past few years, which makes this even more ominous. The base state for 2021 is not much different from 2018, 2019, or 2020. The data collected is from the June forecast, but the point still remains: we are in for another wild ride.

ECMWF June forecast vs. actual activity: storms
2017: 11.6 forecasted storms; 17 storms
2018: 7.7 forecasted storms; 15 storms
2019: 8.5 forecasted storms; 18 storms
2020: 11 forecasted storms; 30 storms
2021: 17.1 forecasted storms; ?? storms

ECMWF June forecast vs. actual activity: hurricanes
2017: 6.3 hurricanes; 10 hurricanes
2018: 3.5 hurricanes; 8 hurricanes
2019: 4.3 hurricanes; 6 hurricanes
2020: 5.5 hurricanes; 14 hurricanes
2021: 9.5 hurricanes; ?? hurricanes

ECMWF June forecast vs. actual activity: ACE
2017: 107 ACE; 225 ACE
2018: 59 ACE; 132 ACE
2019: 71 ACE; 132 ACE
2020: 95 ACE; 184 ACE
2021: 165 ACE; ??? ACE

Assuming their past biases have not been corrected and this sort of pattern persists, this would mean roughly 35 NSs, 15 Hs, and 285 ACE as an example of what the final tally could end up as. While I do think they did upgrade their methods to reduce bias, if they did not, then I would sincerely dread the thought of what this season would bring.

[AxaltaRacing24]

July 2020 showed an ACE 100% of the normal. July 2021 shows an ACE 120% of the normal. This is a bad sign. In fact, the ECMWF forecasts have been ridiculous this year. The Euro has been conservative with hurricane forecasts for the past few years, which makes this even more ominous. The base state for 2021 is not much different from 2018, 2019, or 2020. The data collected is from the June forecast, but the point still remains: we are in for another wild ride.

ECMWF June forecast vs. actual activity: storms
2017: 11.6 forecasted storms; 17 storms
2018: 7.7 forecasted storms; 15 storms
2019: 8.5 forecasted storms; 18 storms
2020: 11 forecasted storms; 30 storms
2021: 17.1 forecasted storms; ?? storms

ECMWF June forecast vs. actual activity: hurricanes
2017: 6.3 hurricanes; 10 hurricanes
2018: 3.5 hurricanes; 8 hurricanes
2019: 4.3 hurricanes; 6 hurricanes
2020: 5.5 hurricanes; 14 hurricanes
2021: 9.5 hurricanes; ?? hurricanes

ECMWF June forecast vs. actual activity: ACE
2017: 107 ACE; 225 ACE
2018: 59 ACE; 132 ACE
2019: 71 ACE; 132 ACE
2020: 95 ACE; 184 ACE
2021: 165 ACE; ??? ACE

Assuming their past biases have not been corrected and this sort of pattern persists, this would mean roughly 35 NSs, 15 Hs, and 285 ACE as an example of what the final tally could end up as. While I do think they did upgrade their methods to reduce bias, if they did not, then I would sincerely dread the thought of what this season would bring.

Oh it's gonna be a season. But not THAT active lol.

[Category5Kaiju]

July 2020 showed an ACE 100% of the normal. July 2021 shows an ACE 120% of the normal. This is a bad sign. In fact, the ECMWF forecasts have been ridiculous this year. The Euro has been conservative with hurricane forecasts for the past few years, which makes this even more ominous. The base state for 2021 is not much different from 2018, 2019, or 2020. The data collected is from the June forecast, but the point still remains: we are in for another wild ride.

ECMWF June forecast vs. actual activity: storms
2017: 11.6 forecasted storms; 17 storms
2018: 7.7 forecasted storms; 15 storms
2019: 8.5 forecasted storms; 18 storms
2020: 11 forecasted storms; 30 storms
2021: 17.1 forecasted storms; ?? storms

ECMWF June forecast vs. actual activity: hurricanes
2017: 6.3 hurricanes; 10 hurricanes
2018: 3.5 hurricanes; 8 hurricanes
2019: 4.3 hurricanes; 6 hurricanes
2020: 5.5 hurricanes; 14 hurricanes
2021: 9.5 hurricanes; ?? hurricanes

ECMWF June forecast vs. actual activity: ACE
2017: 107 ACE; 225 ACE
2018: 59 ACE; 132 ACE
2019: 71 ACE; 132 ACE
2020: 95 ACE; 184 ACE
2021: 165 ACE; ??? ACE

Assuming their past biases have not been corrected and this sort of pattern persists, this would mean roughly 35 NSs, 15 Hs, and 285 ACE as an example of what the final tally could end up as. While I do think they did upgrade their methods to reduce bias, if they did not, then I would sincerely dread the thought of what this season would bring.

Oh it's gonna be a season. But not THAT active lol.

Oh yeah I know, having that kind of active season is probably very unlikely. However, if we were to see some robust MDR-originating activity this year, then it would definitely be plausible to get an ACE score in the high 190s or perhaps even above 200 imho. Named storm wise, I do not think there really is a good way of knowing at this point, but given we are above 2020's pace and even 2005 with Elsa's formation (and with the possibility that we could see at least two or so named storms before July ends) makes me want to believe that whatever happens, it is not implausible that we go deep into the alphabet and perhaps even necessitate the use of the aux list (especially if a La Nina returns again and favors late season activity).

[AxaltaRacing24]

Assuming their past biases have not been corrected and this sort of pattern persists, this would mean roughly 35 NSs, 15 Hs, and 285 ACE as an example of what the final tally could end up as. While I do think they did upgrade their methods to reduce bias, if they did not, then I would sincerely dread the thought of what this season would bring.

Oh it's gonna be a season. But not THAT active lol.

Oh yeah I know, having that kind of active season is probably very unlikely. However, if we were to see some robust MDR-originating activity this year, then it would definitely be plausible to get an ACE score in the high 190s or perhaps even above 200 imho. Named storm wise, I do not think there really is a good way of knowing at this point, but given we are above 2020's pace and even 2005 with Elsa's formation (and with the possibility that we could see at least two or so named storms before July ends) makes me want to believe that whatever happens, it is not implausible that we go deep into the alphabet and perhaps even necessitate the use of the aux list (especially if a La Nina returns again and favors late season activity).

I agree. It appears that one again, nearly every outlook is favorable, some perhaps more than 2020. All that's left now is to hope we don't go deep down the list again.

[weeniepatrol]

It was difficult not to notice the low level inflow into this wave around 30W. I doubt it ever develops, but was interesting nonetheless

[AutoPenalti]

It was difficult not to notice the low level inflow into this wave around 30W. I doubt it ever develops, but was interesting nonetheless

https://imgur.com/T3K7aKC

FWIW, I believe GFS has this wave as a 1011 low in about 18 hours.

[aspen]

I’m starting to think that 2021 actually has a shot of exhausting the name list and potentially getting into the auxiliary list too. While this season is not going to keep up with the pace of 2020 (that suppressive CCKW will probably keep anything from developing until the last third of July), we’re still at a VERY strong start with 5 named storms already. If we see a minimum of 1 storm for the rest of July, 3 in August, 5 in September, 2 in October, and 1 in November, 2021 will finish with 17 storms. However, other hyperactive years had way more in August or September. 2004, 2005, 2010, 2012, and 2020 all had 6-10 systems form in either of those months, and with a favorable CCKW entering the Atlantic starting in late July, it’s possible this August is also active. I also won’t rule out significant late season activity like in 2010, 2018, and 2020 to boost the numbers further.

It would take 1 more July storm, 4 in August (like 2017), 7 in September, 3 in October (like in 2018), and 1 in November (like 2016) to get us to 21 named storms. If any month in ASO becomes even more active — something that is impossible to confidently pin down at this point — then we’ll be in the auxiliary list. Doesn’t have the same ring as “going Greek”, but oh well.

[AlphaToOmega]

I’m starting to think that 2021 actually has a shot of exhausting the name list and potentially getting into the auxiliary list too. While this season is not going to keep up with the pace of 2020 (that suppressive CCKW will probably keep anything from developing until the last third of July), we’re still at a VERY strong start with 5 named storms already. If we see a minimum of 1 storm for the rest of July, 3 in August, 5 in September, 2 in October, and 1 in November, 2021 will finish with 17 storms. However, other hyperactive years had way more in August or September. 2004, 2005, 2010, 2012, and 2020 all had 6-10 systems form in either of those months, and with a favorable CCKW entering the Atlantic starting in late July, it’s possible this August is also active. I also won’t rule out significant late season activity like in 2010, 2018, and 2020 to boost the numbers further.

It would take 1 more July storm, 4 in August (like 2017), 7 in September, 3 in October (like in 2018), and 1 in November (like 2016) to get us to 21 named storms. If any month in ASO becomes even more active — something that is impossible to confidently pin down at this point — then we’ll be in the auxiliary list. Doesn’t have the same ring as “going Greek”, but oh well.

2021 has a shot at beating 2020 and 2005. Whether it will—it is too early to say.